Davy downgrades current housing output forecast but predicts 2026 surge
Wednesday 8 July 2026
Stockbroking firm Davy has reduced its Irish housing completion forecast for this year to 36,000 units, warning that supply shortfalls will persist until 2035.
Stockbroking firm Davy has revised its forecast downwards for housing completions in Ireland for this year, reducing the figure to 36,000 units from an earlier estimate of 37,500.
Despite the reduction for the current year, the firm predicts a substantial rise in development activity in the medium term. Davy forecasts that 43,000 homes will be built in 2026, followed by further production increases in 2027 as the sector adjusts to ongoing demand pressures.
The revised figures contrast with the firm's previous estimates, which predicted 34,000 completions for the current year and 42,000 for the following year.
Long-Term Supply Deficit
According to Davy's analysis, the underlying shortfall in Irish new builds is expected to persist until 2035. This suggests a decade-long gap in the housing supply market.
The report indicates that while immediate construction output is lower than previously anticipated, structural challenges—including affordability issues and supply constraints—will continue to influence the Irish housing market over the next ten years.