Cavan County Development Plan 2022–2028 — Chapter 3

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   3.1 Introduction Cavan County Council has statutory obligations to ensure that sufficient land is zoned for all types of housing to meet the projected housing requirements of the county over the Plan period. The Core Strategy (refer to Chapter 1) of this Plan has outlined the county settlement strategy, the population targets and the amount of land required for residential purposes over the period 2022–2028. The Council’s Housing Strategy in Appendix 1 correlates with the Core Strategy and is underpinned by a Housing Need Demand Assessment (HNDA), as required under the National Planning Framework (NPF).Cavan County Development Plan 2022-2028 180

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   Section 3.3 of this report provides an overview of the HNDA process and the methodological approach which guides its development. Section 3.4 details the Housing Supply Target Methodology for Development Plan Guidelines for Planning Authorities issued under Section 28 of the Planning and Development Act, 2000 (as amended). Thereafter, Section 3.5 sets out relevant legislation and policy at the national, regional and local levels to provide a strategic context for the Housing Strategy and the development of a Housing Need Demand Assessment for the county. Section 3.6 outlines future housing requirements in Cavan, stemming from the outputs presented in the Housing Strategy. Finally, Section 3.10 sets out Cavan County Council’s core policies with regards housing over the period 2022-2028. An evidence-based and future-proofed methodological approach has been adopted to ensure that the County Cavan Housing Strategy meets the housing needs of the county and its residents while remaining in keeping with local, regional and national guidelines. The Strategy is underpinned by a HNDA which provides a robust baseline to inform and guide policies and objectives under the Cavan County Development Plan 2022-2028. The HNDA incorporates a range of socio-economic and demographic data to analyse current levels of demand and supply within Cavan’s housing sector, and project for future need over the lifetime of the Development Plan and beyond to 2031. It incorporates demand across different tenures, including owner-occupied, the rental sector and social housing and provides estimates of future housing needs based on employment growth, income levels and affordability in the housing market. This is elaborated in Appendix 1. 3.2 Housing Strategy / HNDA – Guiding PrinciplesHousing 181

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   3.3 Housing Need Demand Assessment (HNDA) Under Section 94 (1) (a) of the Planning and Development Act 2000 (as amended), each planning authority “shall include in any development plan a strategy for the purpose of ensuring that proper planning and sustainable development of the area of the development plan provides for the housing of the existing and future population of the area in the manner set out in the strategy”. This must take into account: l the existing need and the likely future need for housing l the need to ensure that housing is available for persons who have different levels of income l the need to ensure that a mixture of house types and sizes is developed to reasonably match the requirements of the different categories of households, as may be determined by the planning authority, and including the special requirements of elderly persons and persons with disabilities, and l the need to counteract undue segregation in housing between persons of different social backgrounds. In order to ensure that the plan-making system is supported by a robust methodology to inform policies and funding initiatives around housing and associated land requirements, the NPF has introduced a new requirement for each Local Authority to develop a Housing Need Demand Assessment (HNDA). The HNDA will support the preparation of housing strategies and all related housing policy outputs, e.g. city and county development plans, local area plans, traveller accommodation plans etc. The NPF, indicates the purpose of the HNDA tool to: l Assist local authorities to develop long-term strategic views of housing need across all tenures. l Provide a robust evidence base to support decisions about new housing supply, wider investment and housing related services that inform an overall national housing profile. l Inform policies about the proportion of social and affordable housing required, including the need for different types and sizes of provision. l Provide evidence to inform policies related to the provision of specialist housing and housing related services. Figure 1: HNDA Assessment Areas. Source: KPMG Future Analytics Housing Supply and Demand – Location (Identification of Pressure Areas), Composition (1 Person, 2 Person, etc. Households), Tenure (Owner Occupier, Private Rented, Social), Type (Detached, Semi-Detached, Apartment), Density (Units Per Hectare), Size (1 Bedroom, 2 Bedroom, etc.), Vacancy/Occupancy, Specialist Provision (Disabled, Care Support – Dependent/Independent Living, Temporary - Homelessness, Travelling) Population – Growth, Trends, Composition, Socio-Economic Profile; Geographical Distribution Economic Standing and Economic Growth, Income Levels (Gross, Net), House Price Values, Sales and Levels, Rental Values and Levels, Financial Regulation (Central Bank Macro-Prudential Rules) Housing Population EconomyCavan County Development Plan 2022-2028 182

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   The NPF notes that HNDAs are designed to give broad, long run estimates of what future housing need might be, rather than precision estimates. The Framework must be logical, sequential and allow for updating, monitoring and evaluation. The HNDA undertaken as part of this Development Plan spans two key stages – current and future outlook; and assesses three core areas: Population, Housing and Economy. These are set out in figure 1. The methodological approach to the HNDA undertaken as part of the Cavan County Development Plan 2022-2028 is summarised in figure 2. The process will enhance how acute and unmet demand for housing is identified before it arises. It provides a robust assessment of regional and localised influences, such as population and migration, in quantifying needs and demands. The key evidence inputs which drive the model are: 1 Demographic trends, affordability trends and wider economic trends. The use of economic forecasting or econometric work underpins this section. Data requirements include household composition/projections, house prices, rents, number of first-time buyers (FTBs) and loan to value (LTV) mortgage rates, economic activity and employment rates, etc. 2 Housing Stock Profile Pressures (and existing need) and management issues. This involves undertaking a detailed profile of local housing stock and stock pressures, including local authority housing, to identify the main pressures relating to supply and demand, ineffective stock and overall condition as well as priorities for future stock management. Information is required on dwelling size, dwelling type, dwelling condition and stock pressures (occupancy/ under occupancy stock turnover, etc.). 3 Estimating Future Housing Need and Demand. This is broken down into: owner occupation, private sector, below market rent and social rent. Figure 2: Schematic of HNDA Approach. Source: KPMG Future Analytics STAGE 1 - CURRENT STAGE 1 - FUTURE Areas of Assessment Areas of Assessment Population Population Housing Housing Economy Economy Key Outputs Key Outputs Population Population Completion of HNDA to deliver Housing Policies, Housing Strategy, Land Use Zoning Policies, Investment Programmes Housing Supply Housing Need and Supply Housing Affordability Housing Affordability Land Use Zoning Requirement Land Use Zoning Supply Housing Policy Economic Status Economic GrowthHousing 183

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   3.4 Housing Supply Target Methodology for Development Planning Guidelines for Planning Authorities issued under Section 28 of the Planning and Development Act, 2000 (as amended) The NPF is based on demographic and econometric projections undertaken by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in 2017. Subsequent to the publication of the NPF in 2018, the NPF ‘Roadmap’ circular was issued to all planning authorities, setting out projected county population ranges (in the format of minimum and maximum parameters), for both 2026 and 2031. As part of the development plan process, planning authorities must demonstrate the manner in which their core strategy and other elements of the plan are consistent with the established NPF Roadmap population projections for their local authority area. In order to strengthen the relationship between national and regional population projections and their integration into the development planning process at local authority level, the Department commissioned the ESRI to further develop work previously undertaken for the NPF. The findings of the ESRI work were published as a research paper on Structural Housing Demand at County Level in December 2020. Following publication of same, the ‘Housing Supply Target Methodology for Development Planning: Guidelines for Planning Authorities issued under Section 28 of the Planning and Development Act, 2000 (as amended)’ was published. This ESRI research applies the projection model to four different development scenarios: l Baseline – projecting a ‘business as usual’ scenario which is based on current trends and medium-term projections for the Irish economy; l NPF 50:50 City – consistent with the NPF strategy; l High Migration – incorporating assumptions around high international migration flows into Ireland based on higher economic growth than the baseline; and l Low Migration – incorporating assumptions around lower international migration flows into Ireland based on lower economic growth than the baseline. The ESRI research model is intended to enable structural household demand levels for each local authority area to be set out under the four different scenarios for each year to 2040. The Section 28 Guidelines state that “The NPF 50:50 City scenario is broadly consistent with the National Planning Framework strategy and consequently, the 2018 NPF ‘Roadmap’ document”. As such, the Guidelines further indicate that this is the recommended housing demand scenario to be used by planning authorities in their planning functions in order to plan for the provision of housing to meet projected levels of demand in their administrative area, in accordance with the NPF strategy. Thus, planning authorities must now demonstrate the manner in which their core strategy and other elements of the plan are consistent with the established NPF Roadmap population projections for their local authority area and accordingly, with the related NPF 50:50 City housing demand projection scenario identified by the ESRI. Deviation from this scenario, the Guidelines state, must be evidence-based and consistent with these guidelines. The Ministerial Circular issued in December includes a methodology for projecting housing demand by Local Authority over 2020-2031 within Appendix 1. Following this approach, Cavan County Council present the following calculation of housing demand for the plan period (including an adjustment to 2026 to align with the NPF to 2026) and shall pursue a total housing supply target of 3,996 for the Cavan County Development Plan 2022-2028. Please see Appendix 1 for further detail around this.Cavan County Development Plan 2022-2028 184

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   3.5 Housing Legislation and Policy This section identifies and reviews the key legislative and policy instruments relevant to the delivery of Cavan’s Housing Strategy 2022- 2028. The NPF, Implementation Roadmap for the National Planning Framework and the RSES for the Northern and Western region are reviewed in detail in the Core Strategy (see Chapter 1) and are summarised briefly hereafter. 3.5.1 National Legislation and Policy 3.5.1.1 Planning and Development Act 2000 Part V of the Planning and Development Act 2000 (as amended) contains requirements for all Planning Authorities to ensure that their Development Plans are consistent with high-level strategic policies and population projections for the country. Planning Authorities are required to prepare and incorporate a Core Strategy that shows that the Development Plan is consistent with national and regional objectives under the National Planning Framework and the relevant Regional Spatial and Economic Strategy. Planning Authorities are also required to prepare and incorporate a Housing Strategy into their Development Plan. The purpose of the Housing Strategy is to ensure that development provides for the housing needs of the existing and future population of the county/Development Plan area. It is stated that: “…each housing strategy should have regard to the proper planning and sustainable development of an area and should be concerned with the overall supply of housing within the planning authority.” Table 1: Projected Housing Demand in County Cavan for the plan period (Source: Department, Modified) Cavan County Total Households Number of Relevant Years Annual Average Households Part 1 A ESRI NPF scenario projected new household demand 2017 to Q2 2028 inclusive (11.5 years) 4,597 11.5 400 B Actual new housing supply 2017 to end Q2 2022 941 5.5 171 C Homeless household (latest data), and unmet demand as at most recent Census 46 N/A N/A D Plan Housing Demand = Total (A+B+C) (Projected ESRI NPF demand - new completions) + Unmet demand - from Q3 2022 to end Q2 2028 3,702 6 617 Part 2 E Potential adjustment 1 to end 2026 portion of plan period to facilitate convergence to NPF strategy (where justified) Adjusted Total Demand - Mid-point between ESRI NPF and baseline scenario to 2026 in lieu of A above E1 ESRI baseline scenario projected new household demand 2017 to end Q4 2026 4,554 10 455 E2 ESRI NPF scenario projected new household demand Q1 2027 to end Q2 2028 630 1.5 420 E3 Mid-point/Average between A and E1 (ESRI NPF and Baseline scenarios from 2017 to Q2 2028) 4,261 11.5 371 E4 Adjusted Total Plan Demand calculation based on 2026 midpoint plus the 2027-2028 Q2, remove B and add C 3,996 6 666Housing 185

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   In particular, the Act specifies that the Housing Strategy shall take into account: l The existing and likely future need for social housing l The need to ensure that housing is available for people of different incomes. l The need to ensure the availability of a mixture of house types and sizes to cater for the requirements of different categories of households, including the special requirements of elderly persons and persons with disabilities l the need to counteract segregation in housing between persons of different social backgrounds. It is required that each Housing Strategy be consistent with high level strategic plans such as the National Planning Framework and the Rebuilding Ireland: Action Plan for Housing and Homelessness. Planning Authorities are also required to demonstrate how the Housing Strategy aligns with the population projections contained in the Core Strategy and the Regional Spatial and Economic Strategy for the Region. 3.5.1.2 Planning and Development (Amendment) (No. 3) Regulations 2018 A relevant recent legislative update with respect to housing is the Planning and Development (Amendment) (No. 3) Regulations 2018. The Amendment provides that the temporary change of use of certain vacant commercial premises to residential use is exempt from the need to obtain planning permission. 3.5.1.3 Affordable Housing Act 2021 The Affordable Housing Act was signed into law in July 2021. As well as defining new Cost Rental and Affordable Purchase tenures, the Act includes several changes to Part V of the Planning and Development Act 2000 directly relevant to Housing Strategies. These include: l Section 94 of the 2000 Act is amended to include a requirement that a Housing Strategy makes an estimate of need for affordable purchase and cost rental housing (including through a new assessment of rental affordability); l Section 94 is also amended to restore Part V housing requirements (now including both social and affordable housing) to 20% of land granted residential planning permission, at least half of which must be for social housing; l Section 96 is amended to strengthen requirements to deliver the full 20% Part V contribution on sites regardless of other provisions of the Development Plan, and to allow an exemption for the new 20% contribution for land bought between 2016 and 2021 and granted permission between 2021 and 2026; l Section 97 is amended to reduce the size of developments exempt from Part V requirements to developments of 4 homes or fewer. These changes were further elaborated by Housing Circular 28/2021, issued on 3rd September 2021 (the day changes came into operation). The Circular states that “Chief Executives will now need to estimate the need for affordable and cost rental housing in the administrative areas of their local authorities for deemed inclusion in their Housing Strategies.” The Circular also states that the Housing Need and Demand Assessment Tool published in April may be used to make an estimate of need. The HNDA Guidance published with the Tool in April makes clear that the HNDA Tool was designed to anticipate and meet the requirements of Part V, and the Tool includes a rental assessment that broadly aligns with the expanded methodology set out in the Affordable Housing Act. Please see Annex 1 for further detail on this. 3.5.1.4 Urban Regeneration and Housing Act 2015 The statutory context for the provision of social and affordable housing has changed under the Urban Regeneration and Housing Act 2015 which amended the Planning and Development Act 2000. The amendments include that there will be a requirement for up to 10% social housing in developments in excess of 9 units. Further consideration is given to available social housing delivery mechanisms in Appendix 1. 3.5.1.5 National Planning Framework (NPF) 2018 The National Planning Framework (NPF) is a high-level strategy that will shape growth and development in Ireland out to the year 2040. The NPF draws upon lessons learned from the National Spatial Strategy 2002-2022 and provides a framework for the sustainable development of Ireland’s existing settlements, as an alternative to an uncoordinated “business as usual” approach to development.Cavan County Development Plan 2022-2028 186

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   Project Ireland 2040 National Planning Framework The NPF contains a number of National Policy Objectives that support the delivery of residential development at a suitable location and scale to achieve an overall target of 550,000 additional households nationwide by 2040. The achievement of National Policy Objectives at a County level will be underpinned by the development of a Housing Need Demand Assessment (HDNA) by each Local Authority. A HDNA is defined as a “database which allows local authorities to run a number of different scenarios to inform key decisions on housing need and supply.” They will provide long-term estimates of future housing needs to support the preparation of Housing Strategies and inform housing policy outputs. The NPF lists a number of key evidence inputs that will inform and drive the HDNA model, based around: l Demographic trends, affordability trends and wider economic trends. l Housing Stick Profile Pressures, existing need and management issues l Estimate future housing need and demand. The data requirements for these key evidence inputs are covered in greater detail in Section 3.4. 3.5.1.6 Implementation Roadmap for the National Planning Framework (July 2018) The Implementation Roadmap for the National Planning Framework (July 2018) highlights the Governments focus on achieving alignment between national, regional and local planning policy and practice. It addresses issues around the legal status of the NPF and provides transitional population projections for the period up to 2031 (as set out in Chapter 2 Core Strategy). It also sets out mechanisms to ensure that Development Plans will broadly align with the NPF and RSES’s to address the six-year period up to 2026/2027. 3.5.1.7 Housing Supply Target Methodology for Development Planning Guidelines for Planning Authorities issued under Section 28 of the Planning and Development Act, 2000 (as amended) As part of the development plan process, planning authorities must demonstrate the manner in which their plan is consistent with the NPF and established NPF Implementation Roadmap population projections for their local authority area. In December 2020, the DHLGH issued guidelines to assist planning authorities to incorporate these projections into the preparation of development plans and housing strategies in a consistent and coherent approach (see Section 3.4). These Guidelines build on research undertaken by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) into regional demographics and structural housing demand at county level. The ESRI’s research applies a projection model to four different development scenarios, including the ‘NPF 50:50 City Scenario.’ The Section 28 Guidelines state that “the NPF 50:50 City scenario is broadly consistent with the National Planning Framework strategy and consequently, the 2018 NPF ‘Roadmap’ document”. As such, the Section 28 Guidelines indicate that this is the recommended housing demand scenario to be used by local authorities to plan for the provision of housing to meet projected levels of demand. Thus, planning authorities must now demonstrate the manner in which their core strategy and other elements of the plan are consistent with the established NPF Roadmap population projections for their local authority area and accordingly, with the related NPF 50:50 City housing demand projection scenario identified by the ESRI. The Guidelines set a methodology for the application of population and housing projections into Local Authority plan processes and the setting of Housing Supply Targets for the relevant plan period. 3.5.1.8 Housing for All Housing for All - a New Housing Plan for Ireland’ is the government’s housing plan to 2030. It is a multi-annual, multi-billion euro plan which will improve Ireland’s housing system and deliver more homes of all types for people with different housing needs.Housing 187

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    Amongst other measures, it includes the expansion of Part V as a major action. It sets annual national targets for social and affordable housing, and states that these will be translated into Local Authority-level targets through new five-year Local Authority Housing Delivery Action Plans. It also states that these places must be prepared by Local Authorities (although with some targets provided by the Department) and submitted to the Minister no later than December 2021. It states these plans can be informed by the HNDA Tool and Guidance and should be consistent with Development Plans. 3.5.1.9 Project Ireland 2040 - National Development Plan 2018-2027 The National Development Plan proposes the creation of a new land-management agency. This ‘National Regeneration and Development Agency’ will be established to work with local authorities, public bodies and the business community, harnessing public lands as catalysts to stimulate regeneration and wider investment. In terms of social housing, the National Development Plan will, through a planned capital investment of over €4.2 billion, support the delivery of some 40,000 new social housing homes by 2021. Direct Local Authority build, acquisitions, rejuvenation of formerly empty homes and provision by housing bodies are identified as the chief delivery mechanisms. By 2021, 12,000 social housing homes will be made available annually by Local Authorities and approved housing bodies for social housing. This level of provision is to be maintained over the remainder of the period of the National Development Plan, resulting in 112,000 households having their housing needs met in a social housing home by 2027. The NPF warns against the intensification of social housing properties in areas that are already dense with social housing and advocates the development of diverse neighbourhoods with a healthy balance of public and private housing. 3.5.1.10 Rebuilding Ireland – An Action Plan for Housing and Homelessness (2016) Rebuilding Ireland specifically provides a multistranded approach to achieving key housing objectives, including to significantly increase the supply of social housing, to increase the housing build numbers by 2020, to service all tenure types, and to tackle homelessness. The Plan is designed to put in place the necessary financing, regulatory, governance and resource mechanisms and initiatives to accelerate the delivery of all types of housing supply - private, social and rental sectorCavan County Development Plan 2022-2028 188

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