Dublin City Development Plan 2022–2028 – Volume 1: Written Statement (as varied by Variations Nos. 1–11)

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   Core Strategy | Chapter 2 41 2.2 Quantitative Data Underpinning the Core Strategy This section summarises the key quantitative data used to inform the preparation of the core strategy. The two key sets of figures, required to input to the core strategy, are population and housing. In this regard, the key data sources are: ▪ Eastern Midland and Regional Assembly: Population Allocation for Dublin City Council (July 2020); ▪ Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage, NPF Implementation: Housing Growth Requirements, Guidelines for Planning Authorities, (July 2025). The other main sources of quantitative data under this section include an analysis of the Dublin Housing Taskforce (DHTF) Returns for Dublin City Council, which reports on residential planning and construction activity, and the Central Statistics Office (CSO) data on population, housing and employment figures, as interpreted by both ESRI and AIRO. The CSO Census of 2022 informs the core strategy. 2.2.1 Population and Housing Delivery Population Growth Patterns The population of Dublin City has increased on average by approximately 5% each intercensal period between 2006 -2022. The 2006 Census recorded a population figure of 506,211, rising to a recorded population figure of 527, 612 (+ 4.2 %) in 2011, a recorded population figure of 554,554 (+5%) in Census 2016, and, a recorded population figure of 592,713 (+6.8%) in 2022 (see Table 2-1 below). Table 2-1: Population Change Census year Population % increase 2006 506,211 2011 527,612 +4.2% over 5 years 2016 554,554 +5% over 5 years 2022 592,713 +6.8% over 6 years Source: CSO In the last Development Plan period (2016 to 2022) the population increased by +6% in the six-year period. Using the CSO’s Population and Migration Estimates, April 2025, it is apparent that the city’s population has grown significantly since 2022. The CSO’s population estimate for County Dublin in April 2025 is 1,568,000 persons. This gives Dublin City an approximate population of 642,880 persons in April 2025. This is an estimated population increase of approximately c.50,000 persons from 2022 to April 2025. This equates to an 8.4% increase in a 3-year period.

2. Page 52

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   Core Strategy | Chapter 2 42 Housing Delivery According to CSO New Dwelling Completions figures for Q4 2016 – Q3 2022, a full six year development plan cycle, the number of new dwellings completed in Dublin City since the adoption of the last development plan is 12,982 units, averaging 2,164 units per annum. The Dublin Housing Task Force (DHTF) provides a quarterly update of residential planning and construction activity for the four Dublin local authorities. The DHTF figures provide a ‘snapshot’ in time that includes all extant permissions that are ‘live’ at the time the DHTF return is prepared and published. Table 2-2 below provides the most recent return, Quarter 3 2022, at the time of adoption of the plan, and the accompanying Figure 2-2 illustrates the rising volume of permissions and construction activity that has taken place over the past number of years. The figures in this chart (Figure 2-2 below) are also included as part of Table 2.4 below. Table 2-2: Dublin City Council DHTF Returns Q3 2022 Planning Application Stage (Q3 2022) No. of Residential Units Extant Planning Permissions (permitted) 28,777 Pending Planning Applications (proposed) 10,580 Pre planning application consultation [PACs] (potential) 11,778 Source: DHTF Returns

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   Core Strategy | Chapter 2 43 Figure 2-2: Chart of Dublin City Council DHTF Returns Q3 2017-Q3 2022 - Residential Permissions and on Site Activity Source: DHTF Returns As of Q3 2022 there were 28,777 residential units with extant permissions across the city with a further 10,580 proposed residential units pending a planning decision. In addition, there were potentially 11,778 residential units at pre planning application consultation (PACs) stage. Prior to the onset of Covid-19, Dublin City was experiencing a surge in construction activity, which was interrupted in 2020. However, current indicators show that construction activity has successfully re-opened and 2022 will demonstrate continued growth in housing construction. Table 2-3: Dublin City Council DHTF Returns Q3 2022- Construction Site Activity Sites No. of sites No. of residential units Active sites 65 9,247 Non active sites 132 19,530 Total 197 28,777 Source: Source: DHTF Returns A recurring pattern in each year is the high volume of extant permissions in comparison to sites under construction. From Table 2-3 above, as of Q3 2022, extant permissions for 19,530 residential units have yet to be activated out of a total of 28,777 extant permissions. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 2020 Q3 2021 Q3 2022 Chart of Dublin City Council DHTF Returns - Q3 2017 - Q3 2022 - Residential Permissions and On-Site Activity Total No. of Residential Units with Planning Permission No. of Residential Units with Planning Permission Under Construction

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   Core Strategy | Chapter 2 44 A closer examination of the data, set out in Table 2-4, below provides further detail on the uptake of permissions. Table 2-4: Analysis of Dublin City Council DHTF Returns Q3 2017-Q3 2022 - Ratio of Residential Permissions and on Site Activity Permission / Construction Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 2020 Q3 2021 Q3 2022 Total No. of Extant Permissions 8,172 12,298 13,324 21,989 27,720 28,777 No. of Extant Permissions Under Construction 2,325 1,185 2,447 5,249 6,227 5,233 Approx. Ratio 3.5:1 10:1 5:1 4:1 4.5:1 5.5:1 Source: DHTF Returns The data in Table 2-4, above, shows that the level of extant permissions has more than trebled in a six-year period, from 8,172 units in 2017 to over 28,777 in 2022. This analysis also demonstrates, on a yearly average over the period tracked, that for every five residential units that gets planning permission, only one extant permission for a residential unit is under construction. The reasons for this average ratio are many, including the complex nature of site development, acquisition, land speculation and funding models in the city. However, it is also clear that the number of sites becoming active had been steadily increasing from 40 active sites in Q3 2017 to a peak of 79 active sites in Q3 2021. The figure of 65 active sites for Q3 2022 has dropped back to a similar level (67 active sites) in Q3 2020, see Figure 2-3 below. It is expected that activity will stabilise at this level. It is thought that awaiting the adoption of both the Sustainable Urban Housing: Design Standards for New Apartment Guidelines (March 2018), as amended in 2020 and the Urban Development and Height Guidelines (December 2018) may have influenced the timing of commitments on sites during late 2018 and early 2019, as adoption of both, brought certainty and with it, a continued increase in the number of sites becoming active.

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   Core Strategy | Chapter 2 45 Figure 2-3: Chart of Dublin City Council DHTF Returns Q3 2017-Q3 2022 - Active Sites Source: DHTF Returns 2.2.2 Population and Housing Targets Population Projections for the Core Strategy set out in the RSES and NPF The NPF identifies a target population of at least 1.56 million in total for Dublin City and Suburbs (including all four Dublin local authority areas) to 2040, representing a 20-25% population growth range from 2022 (see Table 2-5 below). Table 2-5: NPF Targeted Pattern of City Population Growth for Dublin City and Suburbs[3] Population 2022 Population Growth to 2040 Minimum Target Population 2040% Range People 1,263,000 20 – 25% 296,000 1,560,000 The RSES, guided by the National Planning Framework Implementation Roadmap July 2018, sets out population projections for the region for 2026 and 2031. These figures are set out in Table 2-6 below. Table 2-6: RSES Population Projection for the Dublin City Council Area 2016-2031 (adjusted to comply with NPO 68 of 2018 NPF) 2016 (CSO) 2026 Low 2026 High 2031 Low 2031 High (adjusted) 554,500 613,000 625,000 638,500 655,000 3 NPF (First Revision)Table 4.1: Target 2040 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 2020 Q3 2021 Q3 2022 No. of Active Sites with Planing Permissions

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   Core Strategy | Chapter 2 46 The Dublin City Development Plan runs from 2022 until 2028. The above figures have been used to extrapolate figures aligning with the development plan period. The adjusted population for Dublin City for the year 2028 is 625,750 (Low) to 640,000 (High) persons. Having regard to CSO’s Population and Migration Estimates, April 2025 and Dublin City’s proportion of that population estimate (approximately 642,880 persons), as outlined in section 2.2.1 Population and Housing Delivery, it is reasonable to assume the adjusted 2028 population projection for the city has been exceeded within the current development plan period. Housing Growth Requirements The Housing Supply Target Methodology for Development Planning, Guidelines for Planning Authorities, 2020, required a housing demand of approximately 40,000 residential units for the six-year development plan period with an annual housing target of 6,690 residential units. The Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage has since issued new guidelines - National Planning Framework NPF Implementation: Housing Growth Requirements, Guidelines for Planning Authorities – in July 2025 to provide planning authorities with the figures to incorporate updated NPF national and regionally based population and housing projections into development plans. This identified an annual housing requirement for the city of 8,196 residential units. Table 2-7 below sets out the projected annual housing requirement for the city from 2026 to 2034 and from 2035 to 2040. Table 2-7: Annual Housing Growth Requirement for Dublin City Development Plan - Annual Housing Requirement (Housing Supply Target) 2022 – 2025 (3 years) Development Plan – Annual Housing Requirement (Housing Supply Target) 2026 – 2028 (3 year period) Annual Housing Growth Requirement 2026 to 2034 Annual Housing Growth Requirement 2035 to 2040 6,690 8,196 8,196 6,075 The housing growth requirement for the development plan period (2022 – 2028) is 44,658 residential units and the housing growth requirement for the 2026 – 2028 period (until the end of the current Dublin City Development Plan) is 24,588 residential units. Additional Provision There is an urgent need to increase housing delivery in the city and ensure delivery of a mix of housing typologies and tenures to cater for our rapidly growing population. Therefore, in

7. Page 57

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   Core Strategy | Chapter 2 47 addition to the above new housing requirements, the NPF Implementation Guidelines outline the need for local authorities to identify the ‘additional provision’ of housing units in their core strategies. ‘Additional provision’ means up to 50% more residential units over the baseline housing growth requirement. For Dublin City this would mean an annual figure of up to 12,294 residential units for the remainder of the plan period. 2.3 Settlement Strategy The Dublin City Settlement Strategy is guided by the policy framework set out at a national and regional level. Dublin City comprises of the central areas and a series of well-established urban villages serving suburban housing located on main transport corridors. This existing pattern of development and movement forms the basis for Dublin’s settlement strategy. Compact growth will be promoted throughout the city through appropriate infill development and consolidation of brownfield sites and targeted growth along key transport corridors. Dublin City Council has a unique position in relation to applying the RSES Settlement Hierarchy in that the entire area of the Council falls within Tier 1. Broadly, the settlement hierarchy prioritises development in the inner city and the Key Urban Villages. It also specifically targets the Strategic Development and Regeneration Areas, which are primarily brownfield lands located in both inner and outer city areas, where there is capacity to absorb a greater intensification of development owing to their proximity to public transport corridors and supporting urban infrastructure. The SDRA’s align with the Strategic Development Areas, as set out in the Regional Spatial and Economic Strategy for the Metropolitan Area Strategic Plan for Dublin. All SDRAs are accompanied by guiding principles set out under Chapter 13 of the development plan. Some SDRA’s are also governed by an existing LAP or Planning Scheme. In general, a mixed use approach is promoted in the SDRAs, with the objective to create vibrant self-sustaining residential communities served by commensurate social and physical infrastructure as well as commercial development. Table 2-8 in Section 2.4 below contains the core strategy for the city, incorporating the settlement hierarchy for the city as thus outlined. The Key Urban Villages (KUV) represent Level 3 Town and /or district centres as per the RSES’s Retail Hierarchy for the Region. This development plan identifies 12 Key Urban Villages for the city, of which five are located on SDRA designated lands including Ballymun, Clongriffin / Belmayne, Finglas, Naas Road and Point Village/Poolbeg. The remaining KUVs are located throughout the city at Ballyfermot, Crumlin Shopping Centre, Donaghmede

8. Page 58

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   Core Strategy | Chapter 2 48 Shopping Centre, Northside Shopping Centre, Omni, Phibsborough and Rathmines (see also Retail Strategy, Appendix 2). The settlement strategy is also based on the key principles of healthy place-making and the 15 minute city (see also Chapter 5: Quality Housing and Sustainable Neighbourhoods). The RSES promotes ‘healthy place-making’ which focuses on the delivery of compact and sustainable growth that incorporates well-designed, lifetime adaptable development in close proximity to existing services and facilities. 2.4 The Core Strategy This section sets out the key elements that comprise the core strategy including an assessment of the location and quantum of appropriately zoned lands available to accommodate the population and housing targets for the city, detailed above. It is a central function of the core strategy that it demonstrates that there is sufficient zoned suitable land to meet the requirements of the projected targets. Climate Change Central to the entire core strategy is the clear purpose of driving forward the steps necessary that deliver climate action. Dublin City is uniquely placed to provide for new housing in locations that fully support sustainable forms of development and allow large numbers of people live, move and work in a way that limits their carbon footprint. City life provides the critical mass that creates the opportunity for people to engage with a wide range of services and social opportunities as well as a work location all within distances that are well served by high quality public transport, premium cycle routes and an attractive public realm. This development plan seeks to implement a core strategy that continues to build mixed use communities within the city that can sustain and grow a low carbon society (see Chapter 3 for greater detail.) This development plan also seeks to support the principle of "Just Transition" to ensure that no members of society are left behind when transitioning to a zero carbon society. 2.4.1. Land Capacity Assessment Dublin City Council covers an area of just under 12,000 hectares, with just over 10,000 hectares of land zoned (the remaining unzoned lands comprises of road carriageways, footpaths and rail corridors). The 10,000 hectares of zoned land is divided between the 14 zoning objectives, nine of which can provide for residential use, namely Z1, Z2, Z3, Z4, Z5, Z8, Z10, Z12 and Z14. These nine zoning objectives, in total, make up 5,800 ha of the overall zoned landbank. A land capacity analysis was carried out by the Planning Department to calculate the yield of undeveloped land; with a particular focus on the 17 Strategic Development Regeneration Areas that are prioritised for development over the development plan period (see also

9. Page 59

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   Core Strategy | Chapter 2 49 Chapter 13). Of this 5,800 ha of land zoned for residential or mixed (including residential) uses; it has been estimated that there are approximately 550 hectares available to develop during this development plan cycle which can provide approximately 49,175 residential units. The analysis undertaken demonstrates that Dublin City Council has the capacity to accommodate the required need of 40,000 residential units over the development plan period within its administrative area. Following the publication of the NPF First Revision Implementation Guidelines in 2025, the capacity of the core strategy to accommodate the new NPF national and regionally based population and housing projections was reviewed. Variations were made to the development plan to facilitate the new housing growth requirements and the requirement for ‘additional provision’ of housing for the city: • Lands at Dublin Industrial Estate (see 2.4.5 Future Development Areas) were rezoned to facilitate mixed use regeneration including housing (8,500 residential units) (see SDRA 18 - Broombridge – Hamilton). • Lands at Kylemore/Inchicore (see 2.4.5 Future Development Areas) were rezoned to facilitate mixed use regeneration including housing (4,000-5,300 residential units) (see SDRA 19 - Kylemore), • SDRA’s No.’s 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 12 & 13 were amended to provide an uplift in housing yield (total increase of c.8,600). • A number of employment / enterprise (Z6) lands in the city were rezoned to accommodate the provision of additional residential development (c.1,200 residential units). • A framework plan for Santry is to be brought forward to provide new housing and to support the sustainable development of Santry. With the potential to provide c.23,600 residential units in addition to the zoned capacity for approximately, 49,175 residential units as identified in 2022, Dublin City Council has the capacity to accommodate the housing growth requirement over the development plan period and can accommodate additional provision of residential units within its administrative area. In view of the complexity of developing brownfield lands in the city, it is anticipated that the core strategy housing yield (see Table 2-8 below) will allow for a wider range and choice of development potential and options that can facilitate the housing requirements for the city in the plan period and potentially into the next plan period having regard to the housing growth requirements and additionality envisaged in the National Planning Framework (First Revision).

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    Core Strategy | Chapter 2 50 The breakdown of this available land and associated housing capacity is detailed in Table 2- 8 below. Integration of the Core Strategy and Settlement Hierarchy The core strategy is shaped and driven by the overall vision outlined in the settlement strategy, with significant new housing delivery framed within the overall settlement hierarchy for the city targeted at (1) the inner city; (2) along key high quality transport corridors as set out by the RSES and MASP and within Key Urban Villages and (3) on key brownfield and infill opportunity sites with the Tier1 RSES area (which encompasses the entire council area) to support NPO4 and NPO20. The settlement strategy recognises there is a strong overlap between these categories within the hierarchy with many key SDRA sites fitting within two or three elements. Table 2-8 : Core Strategy and Settlement Hierarchy Settlement Hierarchy Relevant SDRAs/Strategic Lands Character and general density applied* Proposed Zoned Area Proposed Residential Yield Estimated population INNER CITY City Core Docklands (SDRA 6 and KUV) Mixed use 44 11,900 23,800 Dolphin House (SDRA 12) Residential 6 550 1,100 Grangegorman/ Broadstone (SDRA 8) Primarily education/ health 11.5 1,400** 3,500 Heuston and Environs (SDRA 7) Mixed use 14 2,000 4,000 Liberties & Newmarket Square (SDRA 15) Mixed use 30 2,500 5,000

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