Fingal Development Plan 2023–2029 – Written Statement (Consolidated)

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   PlANNING FOR GROWTh CORE STRATEGy SETTlEMENT STRATEGy 41FINGAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2029 respect to the use of the results of the 2022 Census, it is important to note that the full results of the Census are not due to be made available until April 2023 at the earliest with further results to be published up to December 2023. Table 2.1: Population Change Year Population Increase (%) 2006 239,992 2011 273,991 14.17% 2016 296,020 8.04% 2020 CSO estimate 311,894 5.36% over 4 years Source: CSO Census of Population various years 2.2.6 Population Growth Pattern The CSO’s 2020 population estimate for the Dublin Region was 1,417,700 persons. Fingal County Council’s share of the 2016 Census regional population figure for Dublin was approximately 22%. Assuming the same share for the CSO 2020 estimated regional population figure for Dublin, this gives an estimated population figure of 311,894 for Fingal County Council in April 2020. This indicates an estimated 5% rise in the population of Fingal over a four year period from 2016 through to 2020. Preliminary results from the 2022 Census indicate that Fingal experienced an 11% increase in population between 2016 and the most recent census. 2.2.7 Population – Projections The adoption of the NPF and RSES now means there are statutory national and regional growth strategies which include population projections based on 2016 census data. Calculation of the population target parameters for use in Core Strategies comprise a three-stage process based on national and regional provisions and includes; assessment of the RSES targets, application of additional ‘headroom’ as per the National Planning Framework Implementation Roadmap, 2018 (the Roadmap), and incorporation of ‘reallocated growth’ as provided under NPO 68 of the NPF. 1 The RSES The RSES has set low and high population projections for the region up to 2026 and 2031. This is broken down for each Local Authority and for Fingal County Council; the high population target has been chosen for the Development Plan period. Table 2.2: RSES Population Projections 2016 (CSO) 2026 Low 2026 high 2031 low 2031 high 296,200 327,000 333,000 340,000 349,000 PlANNING FOR GROWTh CORE STRATEGy SETTlEMENT STRATEGy

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   PlANNING FOR GROWTh CORE STRATEGy SETTlEMENT STRATEGy 42FINGAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2029 2 Application of Headroom The Roadmap provides scope to Fingal to bring forward the 2031 population figures by up to 25% by 2026. In terms of ‘Headroom’, the Roadmap indicates that an additional 50% growth is already accounted for in the National population targets up to 2026. Thus, the application of 50% growth beyond the Plan period is already accounted for in the targets. Translating the high RSES projection figures, including the frontloading up to 2026, population projections for the Development Plan period to 2029 is shown below. The remaining 2026 to 2029 figure was calculated on the basis of a pro-rata average year (3 year) of the remaining balance between 2026 and 2031. Table 2.3: RSES Population Projection for the Fingal County Council Area 2016–2031 (adjusted to apply Headroom) 2016 (CSO) 2026 Low 2026 high 2029 296,200 334,745 342,245 346,298 3 National Policy Objective 68 Re-allocated Growth National Policy Objective 68 of the NPF provides that a Metropolitan Area Strategic Plan (MASP) enables up to 20% of the phased population growth targeted in the principal city and suburban area, to be accommodated in the wider metropolitan area. The Dublin MASP, as set out in the RSES, further elaborates upon NPO 68 stating that the provision to allow for the transfer to other settlements shall apply only to three Metropolitan ‘Key Towns’, namely Bray, Maynooth and Swords. In accordance with NPO 68, and as approved by the Eastern and Midland Regional Assembly, an additional 20,000 population was allocated to Swords. Table 2.4: RSES Population Projection for the Fingal County Council Area 2016–2031 (adjusted to comply with NPO 68) 2016 (CSO) 2026 Low 2026 high 2031 low 2031 high (adjusted) 296,200 334,745 342,245 340,000 369,000 The Fingal Development Plan runs from 2023 until 2029. The above figures have been used to extrapolate figures aligning with the plan period. The adjusted population for the Fingal County Council area for the year 2029 is 334,160 (low) to 359,290 (high) persons. Table 2.5: RSES Population Projections, adjusted to 2029 2016 (CSO) 2026 Low 2026 high 2029 296,200 334,745 342,245 359,000 PlANNING FOR GROWTh CORE STRATEGy SETTlEMENT STRATEGy

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   PlANNING FOR GROWTh CORE STRATEGy SETTlEMENT STRATEGy 43FINGAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2029 2.2.8 Fingal County Council – Housing Baseline In 2016, there were 104,851 residential units within the Fingal County Council area. Of this figure, 5,233 units were vacant representing c. 5%. This rate of vacancy falls within the normal range of 2.5% to 6.5% which is considered to be normal in a properly functioning housing market. 2.2.9 Housing Delivery The monitoring of construction and planning activity is an invaluable tool to ensure a clear understanding of housing delivery and the type of planning permission and commencements at different locations across the County. The Housing Taskforce (HTF) tracks the quantum of residential development for 10 no. or more units in the four Dublin Local Authorities on a quarterly basis, since 2016. It provides detailed insight into planning and construction activity in the residential sector and the inter-relationship between same. The DHTF figures provide a snapshot in time that includes all extant permissions that are live at the time the DHTF return is prepared and published. According to Dublin Housing Task Force (DHTF) returns Q1 2017 – Q2 2021, the numbers of new dwellings completed in Fingal since the adoption of the last Development Plan (from Q1 2017 until Q2 2021) was 7,171 units. Assuming the same average return per quarter (398 units) until the end of the Development Plan period, the completions within the full six-year period of the last plan to Q1 2023 is expected to realise approximately 9,960 units. Table 2.6 illustrates the rising volume of permissions and construction activity that has taken place over the past number of years. To date there have been 30 no. Strategic Housing Development (SHD) applications made for the Fingal area, with a total of 9,242 units proposed in these applications. Within these applications 20 no. SHD's (over 17 sites – 4,499 units) have been approved and there are currently 3 no. live applications (2,687 units) where a decision has not yet issued (end Q2 2021). The number of housing units completed at this time is 141 and a further 223 units are under construction. The deliverability of SHDs will form part of the Core Strategy monitoring process. Table 2.6: Housing Task Force Returns Q2 2021 Return Category No. of sites/units No. of sites with planning permission in Tier 1 128 No. of units with planning permission 14,310 Active sites 72 sites No. of units under construction 2,536 units No. of units completed and occupied in 12 month period to end Q4 2022 1,358 units Newly Complete / Occupied in Q4 2022 278 units PlANNING FOR GROWTh CORE STRATEGy SETTlEMENT STRATEGy

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   PlANNING FOR GROWTh CORE STRATEGy SETTlEMENT STRATEGy 44FINGAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2029 Table 2.7: Fingal County Council DHTF Returns Q2 2021 Planning Application Stage (Q2 2021) No. of Residential Units Extant Planning Permissions (permitted) 14,130 Pending Planning applications (proposed) 3,077 Source: DHTF Returns As of Q4 2021, there were 14,130 residential units with extant permissions across the County and there were a further 3,077 proposed residential units pending a planning decision. Current indicators show that construction activity has successfully re-opened and it is expected that future DHTF returns will demonstrate continued strong growth in housing construction. Table 2.8: Fingal County Council DHTF Returns Q2 2021 – Construction Site Activity Sites No. of sites No. of residential units Active site 72 8,603 Non active sites 56 5,707 Total 128 14,130 Source: Source: DHTF Returns At the end of Q2 2021, permission for 5,707 residential units has not yet been activated. The figures indicate that 43.75% of sites with planning have not commenced. This could reflect a range of factors including impact of Covid 19, market forces, permission sought to increase land value for re-sale, issues with sourcing the appropriate level of funding to commence construction, capacity of construction industry, etc. It is reasonable to assume that Fingal County Council will have, on an ongoing basis, a quantum of sites that are suitable for residential development and that have the benefit of planning permission, which may not be brought forward for development within the lifetime of the Plan, or sites which may not come forward for planning at all. 2.2.10 Housing Growth Requirements The National Planning Framework (First Revision) sets national targets for population and housing growth, with National Policy Objective 42 targeting the delivery of approximately 50,000 additional homes nationally per annum to 2040. In July 2025, the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage issued Section 28 Guidelines, NPF Implementation: Housing Growth Requirements and an accompanying circular. These Guidelines provide detailed guidance on how City and County Councils should review their statutory development plans in order to incorporate the updated targets of the Revised NPF. These Guidelines supersede the Housing Supply Target Methodology for Development Planning Guidelines (2020). The Guidelines set annual housing delivery targets for each local authority. Policy and Objective 1 of the Guidelines requires these to be incorporated into City and County Development Plan, while Policy and Objective 2 allows for the provision of up to 50% over and above the housing growth requirement for each local authority. PlANNING FOR GROWTh CORE STRATEGy SETTlEMENT STRATEGy

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   PlANNING FOR GROWTh CORE STRATEGy SETTlEMENT STRATEGy 45FINGAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2029 The targets are based on population and housing demand projections undertaken by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in 2024 (incorporated into the NPF First Revision) and on unmet structural housing demand since 2016. The Guidelines set a target of addressing this unmet demand in the near term and up to 2034. The Guidelines set a new annual housing growth requirement of 3,153 homes for Fingal to 2034. The Guidelines also allow planning authorities to provide for ‘additional provision’ of up to 50% over and above the baseline requirement when zoning land and allocating settlement targets through Development Plan Core Strategies. Policy and Objective 2 of the Guidelines states that this ‘additional provision’ of up to 50% should be reflected within the relevant City or County Development Plan. The Guidelines state that additional provision allows for a choice of sites to be developed locally and avoids restricting the supply of new housing development through inactivity on a particular landholding or site. The Guidelines also state that the increase in maximum additional provision (from that allowed under the Development Plan Guidelines) is “in light of the urgent need to increase housing delivery and to optimise the ability to deliver on the housing requirements of the Revised NPF.” This Core Strategy incorporates the full allowance of 50% above the baseline requirement. Given the scale of new housing required nationally, the urgency of addressing existing and forecast housing need, and the need to plan for unforeseen challenges, it is considered that the full additional provision allowance is justified over the Development Plan period. The following table outlines the total housing growth requirement for the County over the Development Plan period. The housing growth requirements set out in the NPF Implementation: Housing Growth Requirements Guidelines run from 2025. The requirements for the years 2023 and 2024 (2,738 annually) were calculated under the previous Housing Supply Target methodology. This combines with the new annual requirement for the years 2025 to 2029 inclusive (4,730 annually, including 50% uplift) to produce a housing growth requirement for the Development Plan of 29,126 housing units between 2023 and 2029 Table 2.9: Housing Growth Requirements for Fingal County Council Area 2023-2029 A Annual Req. 2023 + 2024 (Housing Supply Target) B New Annual Housing Growth Req. to 2034 C 150% Annual Housing Growth Req. to 2034 D Total Housing Growth Req. 2025 to end 2029 E Total 2023-2024 plus 2025 to end 2029 (A*2+D) 2,738 3,153 4,730 23,650 29,126 This housing requirement would entail an increase in population above that forecast in the 2019 RSES, notwithstanding that the Housing Growth Requirements Guidelines account for unmet housing need and suppressed household formation. This corresponds with the housing targets set out in Appendix 1 of the Guidelines. PlANNING FOR GROWTh CORE STRATEGy SETTlEMENT STRATEGy

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   PlANNING FOR GROWTh CORE STRATEGy SETTlEMENT STRATEGy 46FINGAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2029 Summary Based on the population targets and calculated housing need set out within national and regional planning policy, guidelines and prescribed methodology, the Development Plan must accommodate between 37,980 – 62,980 additional persons up to an overall population target of between 334,000 (low) to 359,000 (high) persons by 2029. The housing demand calculated sets a requirement for the Plan to provide for approximately 16,245 housing units between 2023 and 2029. The combination of the additional housing units required alongside the population growth indicates an anticipated decrease in average household size for the overall County. By 2029, with a total population of 359,000 persons and a total housing stock of 131,056 (this includes 2016 figure, 2017–2023 figure and HST figure) houses, the household size will be an average of 2.73 per house. This is a reduction from 3.03 in 2016 and is consistent with the downward national trend of household size, and the trends outlined in the National Planning Framework which show house size falling from 2.75 in 2016 to 2.5 in 2040. It is noted that there is variation above and below the household size depending on the typologies of extant planning permission, as well as demographic and household composition in each area whether urban or rural. This average household size has informed the population distribution as part of the Settlement Strategy, informed by the Core Strategy, as set out in the next section. 2.2.11 The Core Strategy This section sets out the key elements that comprise the Core Strategy including an assessment of the location and quantum of appropriately zoned lands available to accommodate the population and housing targets for the County, detailed above. It is a central function that the Core Strategy demonstrates that there is sufficient zoned suitable land to meet the requirements of the projected targets. This Core Strategy section has been prepared in the context of the preceding sections of this Chapter. The Core Strategy has been updated in accordance with the National Planning Framework - First Revision 2025 which sets national targets for population and housing growth and the relevant implementation guidelines issued under Section 28 relating to housing growth requirements. Climate Change Central to the entire Core Strategy is the clear purpose of driving forward the steps necessary that deliver climate action. Fingal County Council is uniquely placed to provide for new housing in locations that fully support sustainable forms of development and allow large numbers of people live, move and work in a way that limits their carbon footprint. Providing for a critical mass along public transport corridors, creates the opportunity for people to engage with a wide range of services and social opportunities as well as a work location, all within distances that are well served by high quality public transport, premium cycle routes and attractive public realm. This Plan seeks to implement a Core Strategy that continues to build mixed use communities at appropriate locations across the County that can sustain and grow a low carbon society (see Chapter 5 for greater detail.) PlANNING FOR GROWTh CORE STRATEGy SETTlEMENT STRATEGy

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   PlANNING FOR GROWTh CORE STRATEGy SETTlEMENT STRATEGy 47FINGAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2029 Land Capacity Assessment Fingal County Council covers an area of over 450 square kilometers, with just over 43,322 hectares of land zoned (the remaining unzoned lands comprises road carriageways, footpaths and rail corridors). The c. 43,000 hectares of zoned land is divided between the 22 zoning objectives, seven of which can provide for residential use, namely Local Centre (LC), Major Town Centre (MC), Metro and Rail Economic Corridor (MRE), Residential Area (RA), Residential (RS), Rural Village (RV) and Town and District Centre (TC). These seven zoning objectives, in total, make up 4,953 ha of the overall zoned landbank. An urban capacity assessment was carried out on behalf of the Planning Department to calculate the yield of undeveloped land, specifically for the 31 designated settlements identified in the Fingal Settlement Hierarchy in the Fingal Development Plan 2017–2023. Of this c.4,900 ha of land zoned for residential or mixed (including residential) uses; it has been estimated that there are approximately 1,269 hectares available to develop during this development plan cycle which can provide approximately 41,500 residential units. Note, this included the long-term strategic reserves at Lissenhall and Dunsink. The analysis that was undertaken demonstrated that Fingal County Council has excess capacity to accommodate the required need of 16,245 residential units over the plan period within its administrative area. The breakdown of this available land and associated housing capacity is detailed below. An Infrastructural Assessment, which provides a full assessment of the larger scale infrastructural requirements for the County was undertaken having regard to the requirements of NPO 72a and Appendix 3 of the National Planning Framework as well as the Development Plan Guidelines for Local Authorities. Fingal County Council is exceptional in that the plan area is serviced and no fundamental constraints were identified by Irish Water. In terms of transport infrastructure, all lands are located alongside existing public road routes with an extensive network of pedestrian and cycle routes and further expansion of the pedestrian and cycle network are underway. Furthermore, almost all lands are located proximate to existing and planned public transport corridors, with costings provided for the larger elements of public infrastructure provided in the Infrastructure Assessment. It is noted that the NPF specifically discusses the prioritising of development lands and states that there are many other planning considerations relevant to land zoning beyond the provision of basic enabling infrastructure including overall planned levels of growth, location, suitability for the type of development envisaged, availability of and proximity to amenities, schools, shops or employment, accessibility to transport services etc. Weighing up these factors, together with the availability of infrastructure, assisted Fingal in determining the order of priority to deliver planned growth and development, including supporting infrastructure such as local pedestrian and cycling routes. PlANNING FOR GROWTh CORE STRATEGy SETTlEMENT STRATEGy

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   PlANNING FOR GROWTh CORE STRATEGy SETTlEMENT STRATEGy 48FINGAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2029 Capacity of Zoned Lands Fingal Development Plan 2017–2023 From the consideration of density standards on a site-by-site basis, the available land indicates a potential aggregate yield of circa 35,200 residential units from all settlements in Fingal. Note, this includes the longterm strategic lands at Lissenhall, for which a capacity of 7,000 is given. Whilst due consideration has been given to application of appropriate density standards, the residential yield should be considered as an approximate figure given that there are many and different variables that can affect actual and final density considerations including not least, the wide variation within current density standards, and that density can be influenced by detailed design matters (and potential infrastructural constraints). That said, the approach for this assessment has been to pursue the higher bands of residential density appropriate to the position of the settlement in the County settlement hierarchy and, where it is considered that the site and its context is suitable to accommodate increased residential density. Conversely, even in larger and designated growth towns, there are site-specific instances (albeit limited), where lower density is applied in order to apply logical reasonableness to the analysis, where the pursuit of higher density is not considered appropriate from a ‘proper planning’ perspective. For example, opportunities for residential infill in large or growth settlements where the immediate urban environment is defined by close proximity to compact low-rise development, were considered better suited to lower density to facilitate effective assimilation (which also in turn, allows for diversity in tenure and in housing stock). Excluding those lands identified for strategic long-term development within Lissenhall in Swords, the analysis estimates a potential for 28,204 units on 889 hectares of developable land within the lifetime of the Development Plan period. Zoned land with extant permission not commenced (circa 6,400 units) has been recognised. The potential yield of undeveloped land in each settlement is contained below. Table 2.10: Remaining Zoned Residential Capacity from Fingal Development Plan 2017–2023 Settlement Type Settlement Name Land Availability (Ha) Residential Yield Metropolitan Area Dublin City and Surburbs Consolidation Area Blanchardstown includes Castleknock, Clonsilla, Mulhuddart, Ongar, Hollystown, Tyrrelstown, Dunsink 150 5,742 Baldoyle/Sutton 13 706 Howth 14 209 Other Settlements Includes Santry, Ballymun, Balgriffin, Belcamp, Charlestown & Meakstown 57 1,970 Key Town Swords 329 12,875 Self Sustaining Growth Town Donabate Includes Portrane 111 2,945 PlANNING FOR GROWTh CORE STRATEGy SETTlEMENT STRATEGy

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   PlANNING FOR GROWTh CORE STRATEGy SETTlEMENT STRATEGy 49FINGAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2029 Self Sustaining Town Malahide 37 944 Portmarnock 29 934 Towns and Villages Towns and Villages Includes Coolquay, Kinsealy, Rivermeade & Rowlestown 89 999 Core Area Self Sustaining Towns Balbriggan Includes Balrothery 116 4,151 Rush 43 1,631 Lusk 27 760 Skerries Includes Loughshinny 21 596 Other Core Towns and Villages Towns and Villages Includes Ballyboughal, Oldtown, Ballymadun, Garristown, Nail, Balscadden 80 745 Rural Total 1,115 35,204 The analysis of the Urban Capacity Study shows: ¨ 77% of residential yield provided within the Metropolitan Area (23% in Core) Note: this includes the long-term strategic reserve of Lissenhall ¨ Residential density standard of 30.5uph in the County (39uph in Metropolitan area) ¨ Higher residential density bands applied to larger growth settlements ¨ 95% of urban capacity land defined as ‘greenfield’ land ¨ 0.55% of urban capacity land defined as either ‘vacant/derelict or brownfield’ Summary – Total Land Capacity and Zoning Requirements Table 2.12 summarises and shows the location of the potential capacity of zoned lands in the Plan; combining the existing zoned areas with new potential zonings (including the Long-Term Strategic Reserve at Dunsink). There is zoned capacity for approximately 41,500 units on approximately 1,250 hectares of developable land within the lifetime of the Development Plan. PlANNING FOR GROWTh CORE STRATEGy SETTlEMENT STRATEGy

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    PlANNING FOR GROWTh CORE STRATEGy SETTlEMENT STRATEGy 50FINGAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2029 Table 2.12: Total Capacity of Zoned Lands 2023–2029 Zoned Lands Estimated Capacity Area (HA) Lands Zoned at 2017 – 2023 Plan 28,204 889 Minus Other Lands Changes 589 21 Current zoned total 27,615 868 Potential lands at Dunsink (Long Term Strategic Reserve) 7,000 164 Potential Long Term Strategic Reserve at Lissenhall 7,000 225.5 Potential total 41,615 1,257 Based on this housing capacity, there is evidently sufficient zoned land to meet the needs of the population and housing targets set by the Ministerial Guidelines and the NPF. In addition to this, there are also significant Long Term Strategic Reserve lands, zoned for housing/mixed use that have potential to deliver additional housing beyond the 6 year life of this Plan. For the purpose of clarity, these lands (Lissenhall and Dunsink) are included in the table as potential lands. These two large tracts of land are currently proposed for new urban neighbourhoods beyond the 6 year lifetime of this Plan – see Section 2.2.12 for more detail. 2.2.12 Strategic Long-Term Reserve A major tract of land has been identified as Strategic Long Term Reserve lands at Lissenhall. This key development site is characterised by: ¨ Its potential for significant residential development to be delivered over a timescale greater than a single six-year development plan period ¨ Its significant scale – several thousand new homes as a new urban neighbourhood ¨ A requirement to be aligned and supported by significant water services, transport and other infrastructural investment. The extended timescale needed to deliver such infrastructure requires certainty in terms of zoning status to ensure such long-term planning and investment. Lissenhall Given the MetroLink route will extend into the lands at Lissenhall, the zoning must be appropriate for the area. Furthermore, a substantial portion of these lands will be within 1km of the agreed Estuary Stop. Lissenhall is an expansive, low-lying, rural landscape comprising approximately 240 hectares (of which 225.5 is zoned for development). The area, in broad terms, is bounded by the M1 and R132 to the east, the Broadmeadow River to the south and south west, and the proposed route of the Swords Western Ring Road to the north. These lands are adjacent to the M1 and Belfast-Dublin corridor. By identifying Lissenhall as a key future development area, the Council is seeking to maximise the opportunities created by the delivery PlANNING FOR GROWTh CORE STRATEGy SETTlEMENT STRATEGy

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