Galway City Development Plan 2023–2029

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   Introduction, Strategic Context & Core Strategy Galway City Development Plan 2023-2029 19 1.3.3 Regional Spatial and Economic Strategy (RSES) for the Northern and Western Region (2020-2032) Galway City is located in the Northern and Western Region and comes under the RSES for the Northern and Western Region (2020-2032). The primary aim of the Strategy is to support the implementation of Project Ireland 2040. It provides a regional link from the national tier of planning and investment included in the NPF and the NDP and the economic and climate policies of the Government to a lower, more specific tier with direction on the long-term, strategic planning and economic framework for the region. It sets out a settlement hierarchy for the region, including key target locations for population and employment growth. It includes a range of Regional Policy Objectives which supports future investment in infrastructure and services and which align with the spatial framework of the NPF. It establishes Galway as the largest regional urban centre. It recognises the primacy of the city in the settlement hierarchy of the Northern and Western Regional Assembly (NWRA) area. It also acknowledges the significant influence that the city exerts on much of the western part of the region in developing the economy and in improving competitiveness. Reflecting this influence and as required by the NPF, the RSES includes a Metropolitan Area Strategic Plan (MASP) for Galway City and environs. A key sustainability element of the RSES and MASP is to deliver growth in a compact form with an objective to locate at least half of all new homes that are targeted, within the city footprint of the MASP. The redevelopment of key regeneration/brownfield sites in the city and development of infill sites and underutilised lands at locations that are well served by existing and planned public transport will support compact growth and population targets for the city. The City Plan will advance these ambitions at a more fine grained level and build on the RSES strategy to grow the city as a globally competitive, successful, urban centre of scale. It will through implementation of the MASP regional policy objectives, at local plan level also be a primary driver in strengthening the development of the region. At inter-regional level, collectively with the development of the other regional cities, the Galway MASP can contribute to re-balancing growth nationally to achieve more regional parity and viable alternatives to Dublin. Policy 1.2 National and Regional framework 1. Ensure consistency with the National Planning Framework and the vision to achieve the shared goals as expressed in the National Strategic Outcomes (NSOs). 2. Ensure consistency with the Northern and Western Regional Spatial and Economic Strategy (RSES) including the Metropolitan Area Strategic Plan (MASP) and support the achievement of the associated Regional Policy Objectives (RPOs). 3. Collaborate with other regional cities in order to harness the combined potential and to maximise opportunities to provide a counterbalance to the growth of Dublin. 4. Ensure that the future growth and spatial development of Galway City is in accordance with the revised population and housing growth requirements of the National Planning Framework – First Revision 2025, as implemented through the NPF Implementation Housing Growth Requirements – Guidelines for Planning Authorities 2025, and any subsequent updates, and that the Core Strategy is varied as necessary to give effect to these requirements.

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   Introduction, Strategic Context & Core Strategy 20 Galway City Development Plan 2023-2029 1.4 Core Strategy - Context The requirement to prepare a Core Strategy in support of development plans was first introduced in the Planning & Development (Amendment) Act 2010 and placed an obligation on development plans to include for a medium to long term settlement and growth strategy that is robust, shaped by and can be shown to be consistent with national and regional development objectives. The legislation, with further amendments, specifically references the obligations for the Core Strategy to accord with the NPF the RSES and also with specific policy requirements in Section 28 planning policy guidelines. The NPF has identified Galway City as one of the four designated regional cities outside Dublin and accordingly has allocated the city ambitious population growth targets with at least half of the associated homes to be delivered in the existing built up footprint. This focus of scale and settlement pattern distribution is further reflected in the objectives in the RSES for the Northern & Western Regional Assembly (NWRA) which reinforces the need for Galway’s growth strategy to be compact, smart and sustainable. It acknowledges that the synergies between Galway City and the environs can cumulatively contribute to the creation of a competitive urban centre of scale for the region with the support of a planned approach through the development of the MASP. The Core Strategy is obliged to show through a quantitative based approach that the development plan is pursuing an overall vision that accords with this national and regional policy direction and the associated allocated population growth targets. The strategy, supported by this robust, evidence based approach will then give the rationale for the amount of land zoned for particular purposes. It will also demonstrate that in the overall approach such allocations have been made having regard to sustainability, climate action and environmental considerations. The main focus of the Core Strategy is to demonstrate that there is a reasonable balance between the quantum of zoned, serviced lands included for residential use and the estimated demand for housing based on the projected population targets for the plan period. The approach of the Core Strategy is also to include for the requirement to consider lands for mixed use zoning, where these lands have potential to support housing units as part of the mix and in line with the NPF ensure that they can deliver regeneration and compact growth. Although not specifically required to demonstrate the same level of reasoning for other land use zonings such as that which supports employment, the accompanying guidelines recommend an appropriate level of analysis is undertaken to ensure that sufficient land is identified for employment purposes at suitable locations. In addition the legislation requires Core Strategies to show how objectives for retailing have had regard to the relevant Section 28 Guidelines and in city plans to identify the city centre and other retail areas. Critically also in the Core Strategy it is necessary to show how future development can be linked to and supported by existing public transport infrastructure /services and planned investment. 2. Continue to liaise with Galway County Council in the context of the MASP and other relevant shared planning policy issues to support a consistent integrated approach to sustainable development and meeting population growth targets in the MASP area. 1. Recognise the importance of the Galway Metropolitan Area Strategic Plan (MASP) in the delivery of strategic growth with critical mass that supports the development of the city and existing surrounding settlements as strong, attractive urban places, supported by a level of services and infrastructure that creates successful, sustainable universally accessible and socially inclusive communities and which harnesses the strengths associated with scale to maximise economic opportunities and supports investment. Policy 1.3 Metropolitan Area Strategic Plan (MASP)

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   Introduction, Strategic Context & Core Strategy Galway City Development Plan 2023-2029 21 1.4.1 Preparation of the Core Strategy Although the Core Strategy is worked out on an evidence based analysis to arrive at a preferred approach to both the spatial pattern and quantity of housing delivery in the plan period, it is also prepared with consideration of the broader context of other key policy areas. These include the overarching policies on climate action, sustainable transport, employment, economic and commercial growth, the need to deliver sustainable neighbourhoods, good public realm and place making and all in the context of maintaining and improving the natural environment and biodiversity. The quantitative analysis in preparing the Core Strategy has been guided by a number of national policy documents. These include the population and household targets that are set out in the Revised NPF 2025, the NPF Implementation Roadmap(2018), the RSES, the Section 28 ‘Housing Supply Target Methodology for Development Planning’ (2020), the NPF Implementation Housing Growth Requirements – Guidelines for Planning Authorities 2025, and the ‘ Guidance on the Preparation of a Housing Need and Demand Assessment’(2020) and the DHLGH methodology known as the HNDA Tool (2021).The output of the HNDA tool was used in the preparation of the Galway City Housing Strategy and Housing Need and Demand Assessment 2023-29. This supporting document has also been important in informing the Core Strategy with respect to annualised population projections and the associated housing need and likely household tenure mix. This approach required a sequence of considerations which included the following: • Population Projections 2016 - 2029 • Household Projections 2023 - 2029 • Planning & Construction Activity • Housing Target for the Core Strategy 1.4.2 Population Projections 2016 - 2029 Future population growth in the city represents a key element in the Core Strategy. The historical methodology of estimating this growth would have been based on standard parameters such as using fertility, mortality and migration rates. These are still important considerations but are now complemented by national policy objectives included in the NPF. The NPF has included for these in national projections, but also aims for a redistribution of growth to induce more regional parity through targeting a shift in the national pattern of development, which without intervention, will perpetuate the dominance of the Dublin Region and reinforce the current regional inequalities in growth. With this intention, coupled with the need for more sustainable compact urban forms, the NPF has included for targeted patterns of population growth for each region and city within the state up to 2040. The NPF sets out a targeted pattern of growth for Galway City and Suburbs to 2040 of between 40,000 - 45,000 people. The Core Strategy has been updated in accordance with the National Planning Framework – First Revision 2025, which sets national targets for population and housing growth, and the relevant implementation guidelines issued under Section 28 relating to housing growth requirements. This ensures the strategy remains aligned with current government policy while responding to local growth requirements. Table 1.1 Galway City Targeted Pattern of Growth under NPF Targeted Population Projections Population Target increase from 2016 NPF to 2040 +40,000 – 45,000 (at least 120,000 population in total

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   Introduction, Strategic Context & Core Strategy 22 Galway City Development Plan 2023-2029 The RSES has subsequently applied further analyses and included for refined population targets for the Galway MASP area. The NPF Implementation Roadmap (2018) gave support for transitional population projections up to 2031. Based on this the RSES population targets for the city is to reach a population of 102,900 by 2026, that is an increase of 23,000 from the 2016 Census for the city and suburbs population of 79,900. Longer term up to 2031, the RSES target for the city is to grow by a further 12,000 to 114,900 population as shown in Table 1.2. Table 1.2 Implementation Roadmap Population Projections for *Galway City & Suburbs in RSES Year 2016 (CSO Census) 2026 (Projection) 2031 (Projection) Population 79,900* 102,900 (+ 23,000) 114,900 (+12,000) Further refinement of these projections was carried out at County/City level by the Economic Social Research Institute (ESRI) and published as Housing Supply Target Methodology for Development Planning (Section 28 guidelines DHLGH 2020). This is the main basis used in population projections for the plan period. As part of the development plan process, planning authorities must demonstrate the manner in which their Core Strategy and other elements of the plan are consistent with the established NPF Roadmap population projections for their local authority area and accordingly, with the related NPF 50:50 scenario. Specific housing demand projection scenarios identified by the ESRI are the scenarios local authorities are directed to use when estimating population and thereby future housing need demand. This tool however represents the most conservative scenario being based on a period of a low household formation in 2015, reflecting low construction rates and pent up demand reflected somewhat in headship rates that are generally at a higher age than in other jurisdictions. These projections for the city are low when compared and viewed in the context of the NPF Implementation Roadmap and the RSES for the MASP. The application of the ESRI base and HNDA may be a useful tool to measure the impact of the gradual effect of implementation of NPF and RSES policy while the NPF/RSES targeted population will be used to estimate the requirements for residential/ mixed use with residential land zoning requirements, with the application of densification and use of regeneration lands being the primary mechanism used to achieve the capacity to support the targeted population. Table 1.3 represents the application of the ESRI basis as used to model the Galway City Housing Strategy and Housing Need and Demand Assessment 2023-29 to arrive at forecast projections for additional newly formed households per annum and the projected associated additional annual housing need demand in the city.

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   Introduction, Strategic Context & Core Strategy Galway City Development Plan 2023-2029 23 Table 1.3 Population Projections for Galway City, 2020-2031 Source: Galway City Housing Strategy and HNDA 2023-29 Year Baseline 50:50 City High Migration Low Migration 2016* (Actual) 78,668 78,668 78,668 78,668 2020 81,176 84,853 81,183 80,783 2021 81,750 86,385 81,812 80,993 2022 82,282 87,871 82,448 81,191 2023 82,719 89,242 83,042 81,405 2024 83,077 90,503 83,611 81,654 2025 83,337 91,632 84,141 81,853 2026 83,575 92,731 84,660 82,039 2027 83,833 93,841 85,209 82,257 2028 84,137 94,989 85,812 82,531 2029 84,480 96,167 86,462 82,855 2030 84,820 97,332 87,113 83,182 2031 85,162 98,486 87,768 83,514 Table 1.3 illustrates the outcomes from the 4 ESRI population projection scenarios which are: Baseline/Business as usual – based on medium term projections for the economy with an underlying assumption that net inwards migration would converge to 15,000 p.a. by 2024 and remain at that level throughout the projection horizon. 50:50 City – based on a similar outlook in terms of net inwards migration but whereby population growth is focused on the major cities and is in line with the objectives of the National Planning Framework High Migration – assumes that net inwards migration stays at an elevated level throughout the projection horizon (net inwards migration of 30,000 p.a.) Low Migration - assumes that net inwards migration falls to 5,000 by 2022 adjusts towards baseline scenario over following five years.

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   Introduction, Strategic Context & Core Strategy 24 Galway City Development Plan 2023-2029 1.4.3 Household Projections – HNDA Approach Reflecting on the most recent census statistics (2016) it is noted that there are 28,859 private households in Galway City marking a growth of 4.1% (+1,133) since 2011. The average household size was recorded to be 2.58 persons, this compares to a national rate of 2.73 persons per household. The further refinement of this breakdown into household size composition in comparison with the state is shown in Figure 1.3 Household Composition 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1 person 2 persons 3 persons 4 persons 5+ persons Galway City State Figure 1.3 Breakdown of household Composition in Galway City compared to national rate The NPF reflected on household sizes and projects that the average household size is expected to reduce to 2.5 persons by 2040, noting that this trend towards smaller households will be more apparent in urban areas than rural areas. This shift in household size and the composition of households is important for many housing related issues and associated policies, including the needs of older people, single - person households, intergenerational housing options, and housing types to meet all life cycles. In projecting housing requirements in general, the NPF stresses the importance of having a robust, evidence based approach for projections and in this regard the new statutory guidelines and methodologies have been prepared and aim to have an effective consistency at national, regional and local level. The Section 28 guidelines Housing Supply Target Methodology for Development Planning DHLGH 2020, provide the standard methodology that each local authority is required to use, so that there is consistency in approach with the NPF and the relevant RSES’s and accordingly, with the related NPF 50:50 scenario. Galway City housing demand projections which have been based on these guidelines are included in Table 1.3 The preparation of the guidelines was supported by background data and research prepared by the ESRI. The ultimate objective of this was to establish a national standard for local authorities to use to estimate the overall housing demand and one that allows for a consistency in methodology between plans and therefore a reliable mechanism to inform and direct housing policy formulation at both national and local level. 31% 29% 25% 23% 19% 17% 17% 15% 14% 10%

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   Introduction, Strategic Context & Core Strategy Galway City Development Plan 2023-2029 25 Planning authorities must therefore demonstrate how their Core Strategy and other elements of their plan are consistent with the established NPF Roadmap population projections for their local authority area and accordingly, with the related NPF 50:50 city housing demand projection scenario identified by the ESRI. This approach is in contrast to previous methodologies used by local authority plans which utilised population projections to assess housing demands. The reasoning against using this historic model is that, although projections are important, the validity of the projections can only be assessed with one fixed date every five years as part of a national census of population. This tool enables more flexibility. Applying the methodology from the guidelines and exercising the recently developed HNDA Tool (April 2021 DHLGH) the projected housing need for the city has been forecasted for the period of the plan. This approach includes for a combination of a household projection scenario (for Galway City the convergence scenario is used) and an estimate of unmet housing need combined with the number of existing homeless households, the results of which are shown in Table 4.10 of the Galway City Housing Strategy/Housing Need Demand Assessment (G.C.C. August 2021). This scenario is also used to estimate the breakdown of this projected housing need by tenure in this document. In total it is estimated that there will be a need at a minimum for an additional 4,245 housing units in the city over the plan period up to the end of 2028. The use of the HNDA tool to project housing need for Galway City is in line with the aforementioned NPF Objective 36 to oblige local authorities to apply a standardised methodology in estimating future housing need and to enable assessment of the effectiveness of policies to deliver housing at regional, metropolitan and local level. The HNDA is a dynamic tool, it has application that can enable the council to monitor the delivery of housing over the duration of the plan. It is sufficiently flexible to allow for adjustments in the prevailing socio-economic variables that are used in the tool’s methodology that can impact and change the projected breakdown in tenure. Using the tool can allow housing delivery to be monitoring delivery at local level and because it is a standardised tool at national level too. It can therefore contribute to timely adaptation of housing policies and also give a measure of how effective prevailing policies are in delivering the NPF targeted populations. It provides for a scenario where housing provision can demonstrate a reflection of the increases in housing provision that can show that the policies in the NPF are beginning to have impact. Table 1.4 Total Annual Housing Need, 2023-2028 Note: Totals may not sum due to rounding 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Total Total Housing Need 776 743 702 713 711 790 4,433 Convergence Projections 744 711 670 681 679 758 4,245 Existing need 31 31 31 31 31 31 186

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   Introduction, Strategic Context & Core Strategy 26 Galway City Development Plan 2023-2029 1.4.4 Planning and Construction Activity The Central Statistics Office (CSO) publishes dwelling completion data on a quarterly basis as shown in Table 1.5. This gives an insight into housing delivery since 2011 and identifies that the majority of housing has been delivered in scheme units over the last five years. The table also reflects the slow recovery in house building since the economic crisis and the impact of Covid-19 pandemic restrictions on construction as reflected in the decline in completion rates for 2020. Table 1.5 CSO Completions in Galway City 2011-2022 Completions 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Single house 21 11 16 8 16 12 20 21 29 18 26 27 Scheme house 18 1 4 12 13 69 99 106 158 211 211 212 Apartment 13 10 30 27 22 32 30 12 67 32 65 174 % Change - -58% 127% -6% 9% 122% 32% -7% 83% -19% 47% 37% Total 52 22 50 47 51 113 149 139 254 206 302 413 Purpose built student housing is not recorded in the residential dataset by the CSO however the City Council records show that 1,060 additional purpose built bed spaces have been delivered since 2015.

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   Introduction, Strategic Context & Core Strategy Galway City Development Plan 2023-2029 27 1.4.5 Residential Planning Delivery There has been significant activity in applications for residential units in recent years. Many of the larger scaled proposals have been applied for under the Strategic Housing Development (SHD) consent regime. Reflecting the pattern of historical construction consents in general, these predominantly consist of residential scheme developments with a notable trend toward more mix in housing type within these schemes to include for small scaled units accommodating apartments and duplex housing. Table 1.6 highlights the number of these extant permissions as of the 1st of September 2021. It also demonstrates the split between conventional housing and apartment /duplex housing. It includes both developments where no work has commenced and developments commenced where no housing units within the schemes have been occupied to date. This data is currently updated, monitored and mapped on a 6 month cycle and will be adapted to the future monitoring reporting structure as provided for in Appendix 1. Table 1.6 Details on Planning Activity (September 2021) Residential Developments with consents Total no. of Housing Units with permission 1,936 Breakdown of permitted in number and % of Unit Type Conventional housing – 502 (26%) Apartment/Duplex Units - 1434 (74%) Student Bed Spaces unbuilt 2,036 bed spaces Residential Proposals at Application stage (SHD/Part8/Part 10 and applications under appeal to An Bord Pleanála by number of units) 800 housing units 1.4.6 Housing Target for the Core Strategy Galway City’s development plan, unlike other local authorities, particularly those including county areas does not have a need to prepare a settlement hierarchy being a single settlement area. However the Core Strategy acknowledges the broader spatial context of the MASP area and the associated strategic planning framework which identifies Strategic Growth Areas and opportunities for regeneration. The MASP has also identified the key infrastructure, services and facilities that will be required to support sustainable city growth and regeneration. It gives direction on how the NPF population targets can be met in accordance with the principles of sustainable development with the aim to deliver compact growth.

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    Introduction, Strategic Context & Core Strategy 26 Galway City Development Plan 2023-2029 Figure 1.4 MASP area as defined in Metropolitan Area Strategic Plan Strategic provision should be made to demonstrate how the population targets can, with additional investment facilitate the opportunity for such growth in the longer term and reinforce the objectives for compact growth and accord with the overall MASP area as shown in Figure 1.4. This will support the objectives of the Revised NPF and the RSES to deliver Galway Metropolitan area as a national strategic growth area with the ability to accommodate the compact sustainable growth levels envisaged in the NPF to be reached by 2040. The MASP identifies areas of growth potential in the settlement and development strategy for the city and makes inclusion for growth in the county settlements within the metropolitan boundary. Together these will contribute to the critical mass needed to make Galway City and environs achieve regional city scale and when combined with the other regional cities to function as a realistic alternative to Dublin and achieve a key NPF national strategic output.

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