Kilkenny City and County Development Plan 2021–2027

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   Chapter 3 Demographic and Socio-Economic Trends Kilkenny City and County Development Plan Volume 1 19 3 Demographic and Socio-Economic Trends 3.1 Population trends Census 2016 records the population of County Kilkenny as 99,232 which is an increase of 3,813 over the population recorded in 2011. This is a 4% population increase for the county, less than half the 8% increase in the previous 2006-2011 intercensal period, but still slightly above the State which averaged an increase of 3.8% over the period. Kilkenny City recorded a population of 26,512 in 2016 which is an increase of 2,089 (8.5%) over the population recorded in 2011. Table 3.1 Recorded population 2002 - 2016 2002 2006 2011 2016 Kilkenny County 80,399 87,558 95,419 99,232 Kilkenny City 20,735 22,179 24,423 26,512 At a regional level Kilkenny County performed well compared to its neighbours, with County Carlow being the only county within the south east recording a higher percentage population increase. Table 3.2 Recorded population in the South East 2011 2016 Percentage change Carlow 54,612 56,932 + 4,6% Kilkenny 95,419 99,232 +4% Tipperary 158,754 159,553 +0.5% Waterford County 113,795 116,176 +2.1% Wexford 145,320 149,711 +3% 3.1.1 Population Change 3.1.1.1 Urban Areas The major focus for expansion in population has been in Kilkenny City and the Ferrybank area (Environs of Waterford City within County Kilkenny). In Kilkenny City, an increase of 2,089 persons was recorded in the intercensal period 2011 to 2016, which compares well with the 2,244 persons recorded in the period 2006 to 2011. The Ferrybank area (Waterford City Environs within County Kilkenny) also recorded an increase of 435 persons between 2011 and 2016. Those two areas alone account for 66% of the total population increase within the County. The population of Ferrybank, the second largest urban area within the County after Kilkenny City, has increased by 145% since 2002.

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   Chapter 3 Demographic and Socio-Economic Trends Kilkenny City and County Development Plan Volume 1 20 Table 3.3 Population of the District towns and Ferrybank 2006 2011 2016 2011- 2016 % difference Kilkenny City 22,179 24,423 26,512 +8.5% Callan 1,771 2,330 2,475 +6.2% Castlecomer 1,531 1,456 1,502 +3.1% Graiguenamanagh1 1,097 1,476 1,389 -5.8% Thomastown 1,837 2,273 2,445 +7.5% Ferrybank Area 3,465 4,811 5,246 +9.04% Table 3.3 shows that all of the District Towns have performed well in terms of population increase since 2011. Castlecomer was the only town that has shown a population decrease between 2006 and 2011, but the population has slightly recovered according to the 2016 census. The table also shows the dominance of Kilkenny City as the most significant urban area within the County. The population of the County within aggregate town areas as defined by the census has increased from 35.3% in 2006 to 37% in 2011 and to 40% in 2016. This shows that the proportion of the population living in urban areas2 is increasing. However, it also shows that Kilkenny is still a predominantly rural county in terms of population. 3.1.1.2 Rural Areas Figure 3.1 shows the population change across all Electoral Divisions (EDs) in the county between 2002 and 2016. There are 113 Electoral Districts and of these, 100 showed an increase in population, one remained constant and only 12 experienced a decrease in population. The EDs that experienced the most significant growth are Paulstown (105%), Tiscoffin (87.69%), Jerpoint West (120.49%) and Kilculliheen (Part) (144.57%). The most significant decreases were in the Tullaroan and Baunmore EDs, which respectively experienced decreases of 10.5% and 13.55%. Over that time period it can be seen that on average, in the electoral districts close to Kilkenny City, there have been significant increases in population with high double digit increases. 3.1.2 Age Cohorts Over the intercensal period 2011-2016 there was noticeable change in the age cohorts in County Kilkenny. In accordance with trends in the State, the slight reduction in cohorts in the 0-4 age bracket may be an indication of a lower birth rate whereas the increase in the cohorts 45-64 and 65+ may be indicative of the ageing of the County’s population. The cohorts of 18-24 and 25-44 have also reduced accordingly, which may be indicative of emigration from both the County and State. This seems to be indicative of the slow erosion of the working population which may over time lead to concerns for 1 These figures do not include the Tinnahinch area in Graiguenamanagh, located within Co. Carlow. If Tinnahinch is included within Graiguenamanagh, then the population of the town would be 1,475 for 2016 (1,543 for 2011). 2 Urban areas as defined by CSO i.e. towns with populations of 1,500 or more.

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   Chapter 3 Demographic and Socio-Economic Trends Kilkenny City and County Development Plan Volume 1 21 sustained economic growth. The tables below compare the Age cohorts in the County against those in the State. Decreases in cohorts are highlighted in red. Table 3.4 Percentage of Population in various Age Cohorts in the State Age Group Year 0-4 5-12 13-17 18-24 25-44 45-64 65+ 2011 7.77 10.99 6.28 8.96 31.61 22.73 11.67 2016 6.96 11.52 6.52 8.24 29.53 23.84 13.39 Table 3.5 Percentage of Population in various Age Cohorts in County Kilkenny Age Group Year 0-4 5-12 13-17 18-24 25-44 45-64 65+ 2011 7.86 11.49 6.68 7.8 29.84 23.89 12.25 2016 7.17 11.86 7.11 7.09 27.67 24.93 14.16 3.1.3 Nationality The 2016 Census provides the breakdown of different nationalities within the state and compare that to the county. In the state the largest Non-Irish nationality is that of the Polish community accounting for 2.61% of the national population. Table 3.6 Nationalities living in the State Nationality Number % Ireland 4,082,513 87.04 UK 103,113 2.19 Poland 122,515 2.61 Lithuania 36,552 0.77 Other EU 28 146,738 3.12 Rest of World 126,557 2.69 Not stated 71,933 1.53 Total 4,689,921 The census shows that 90% of the population of the county identify as being Irish in nationality. Of the 10% of non-Irish nationals in the County, the Polish community now make up the largest number at 2.34% of the of the county population, or 2,305 persons.

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   Chapter 3 Demographic and Socio-Economic Trends Kilkenny City and County Development Plan Volume 1 22 On further analysis of the Census figures, it can be seen that the majority of the Polish community in the county live in Kilkenny City at 1,257, accounting for 4.85% of the City’s population at 2016. 3.1.4 Household size The changing nature of household patterns is an important consideration for the Plan. In 2002 the average household size was 3.3. In 2006 the average household size had decreased to 2.88. The 2011 Census records an average of 2.8 people per household throughout the county, which rose to 2.84 in 2016 (the state average is 2.75). The National Planning Framework expects that household size is expected to decline to around 2.5 by 2040, while also acknowledging that household sizes in urban areas tend to be smaller than in the suburbs or rural parts of the country. Table 3.8 Average Household size (County Kilkenny) No. of households Persons in households Average household size 2002 25,603 75,965 3.03 2006 29,651 84,973 2.88 2011 33,619 94,342 2.8 2016 34,855 99,232 2.84 Source: CSO 2002, 2006, 2011, 2016 If we examine the urban areas of the County, a similar trend exists but the occupancy rate is lower. Table 3.9 Average Household size for aggregate town areas in Co. Kilkenny No. of households Persons in households Average household size 2002 8,239 22,713 2.75 2006 11,355 29,536 2.6 2011 13,250 34,089 2.57 2016 14,699 37,369 2.54 For the urban areas within the County household size has continued to decrease from 2.75 in 2002 to 2.54 in 2016. For Kilkenny City and the Ferrybank area the average household size in 2016 was 2.57, similar to 2011. This has implications for the amount of zoned land required in these settlements and the range and size of houses to be catered for within the settlements. Table 3.7 Nationalities living in County Kilkenny Nationality Number % Ireland 88,938 90.63 UK 2,128 2.16 Poland 2,305 2.34 Lithuania 401 0.40 Other EU 28 2,195 2.23 Rest of World 1,186 1.20 Not stated 972 0.99 Total 98,125

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   Chapter 3 Demographic and Socio-Economic Trends Kilkenny City and County Development Plan Volume 1 23 3.2 Population Forecasts The population targets for the City & County are set by the Implementation Roadmap for the National Planning Framework. These figures were also set out in Appendix 1 of the Regional Spatial and Economic Strategy. The population forecasts are further refined in Chapter 4, Core Strategy. The targets set for the City and County are set out in Table 3.10 below. Table 3.10 National Planning Framework population projections 2016 NPF 2026 2027 Uplift from 2016 2031 Kilkenny County 99,232 110,000 111,077 11,845 114,500 Kilkenny City 26,512 29,822 30,153 3,641 31,477 Ferrybank/Belview 5,288 6,608 6,740 1,452 7,268 3.3 Housing Vacancy Rates The 2016 Census recorded a vacancy rate of 9% for the County, 1.4% of which is holiday homes. This rate represents a decrease from the 11.9% recorded in 2011. The national average was recorded at 12.2% which includes 3.1% holiday homes, down significantly from the 14.5% recorded in 2011. The vacancy rate within Kilkenny City was recorded at 7% which includes 0.6% holiday homes, also significantly down from the 11.3% recorded in 2011. The vacancy rates within the county since 1991 are indicated in Table 3.11 below. It can be seen that before 2006 the vacancy rate ranged between 6.4 and 7%. There has been a significant increase in the vacancy rate since then. Table 3.11: Vacancy rates in Co. Kilkenny 1991-2016 Year 1996 2002 2006 2011 2016 Vacancy rate 6.4% 6.6% 12% 11.9% 9.0% Source: CSO, 2016 3.4 Socio-Economic profile 3.4.1 Kilkenny’s Economy Kilkenny city is identified as a self-sustaining regional driver with a significant population and as a major centre for delivery of public services, with public and private hospitals, third level education, courts, local and national government functions as well as economic and business roles and higher order retail functions. The City is an administration centre for state and semi-state agencies including the regional HQ of the Health & Safety Authority (HSA) and the Health Services Executive (HSE), the national HQ of the Patents Office, the Design and Crafts Council of Ireland and The Heritage Council. Kilkenny city has also developed a strong profile as a services centre with companies such as State Street, VHI, and Taxback.com being present. This is reflected in the fact that the City is the 8th largest employment centre in the State. The County as a whole boasts a strong indigenous industry in sectors such as food and drink (e.g. Glanbia, Connolly Red Mills and artisan food producers) as well as the craft sector. The city has a high

7. Page 37

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   Chapter 3 Demographic and Socio-Economic Trends Kilkenny City and County Development Plan Volume 1 24 profile nationally and internationally as a medieval city and a centre for tourism, festivals, heritage and the arts. 3.4.2 Employment Employment in the county declined over the period 2006 to 2011 in line with the recession in the World and European economies. Between 2011 and 2016 there was a steady increase in employment in all sectors except Public Administration and Manufacturing. Table 3.12: Occupation by Industry3 Industry 2011 2016 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 3,011 3,488 Building and construction 2,117 2,496 Manufacturing industries 4,482 4,069 Commerce and trade 8,761 9,348 Transport and communications 1,834 1,991 Public administration 2,238 2,150 Professional services 9,042 10,446 Other 5,400 6,475 Total 36,885 41,363 Source: CSO 2011, 2016 At a national level post 2016 as the economy recovered jobs continued to grow and unemployment continued to fall. This is illustrated by CSO figures of June 2019, which show that the country was close to full employment as the jobless rate slumped to just 4.4%4. The CSO’s Business Demography Survey reports that there were 4,635 businesses operating in County Kilkenny (in 2018), with 20,321 people employed. The Retail and Wholesale Sector with 909 businesses employed the largest percentage of people (at c23%). The Manufacturing Sector employed the next highest proportion (at c20%) and the Hospitality Sector was the third highest employer (at c17% - c42% higher than the national average employed in Hospitality.) The Construction Sector with 1,200 enterprises accounted for the largest proportion of businesses (at c26%) and c15% of those employed (c40% higher than the national average employed in Construction.) Kilkenny has built a strong cohort of shared services operations, a sizeable portfolio of international financial services companies and has strong activity in the future growth sectors of Fintech/Regtech5/Insurtech6 and the global payments sector. It plays a critical role as a central 3 Source: Census 2006 and 2011 and 2016 4 Irish independent June 5th 2019 5 Regulatory technology, in short Regtech, is a new technology that uses information technology to enhance regulatory processes. 6 Insurtech is any technology that's used by insurance companies to streamline their operations, provide a better service, or save money

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   Chapter 3 Demographic and Socio-Economic Trends Kilkenny City and County Development Plan Volume 1 25 location within the Ireland South East financial services cluster with key companies including State Street, Taxback Group, Carne Group and VHI. Kilkenny has distinct competitive advantages in the Agri and Agri-tech sectors with major companies operating in the county including Glanbia and Connolly’s Red Mills, complemented by an emerging artisan food producer base of micro and medium sized food producers. Glanbia have continued to expand and new entrants such as AB Agri being attracted by the level of innovation and agri-tech research originating from the county. Kilkenny, home to the Design & Craft Council Ireland headquarters and Grennan Mill Craft School, has long been recognised as the centre of Ireland’s design and craft sector. Kilkenny’s reputation as a centre for creativity and design thinking continues to be enhanced with the expansion of Cartoon Saloon and Lighthouse Studios. Notwithstanding, there is some uncertainty to future performance due to the potential economic impact of Brexit on the Irish economy. However, since the first quarter of 2020 the situation has changed dramatically due to the advent of the Covid-19 pandemic. There is now a high degree of uncertainty around economic performance for the remainder of 2020 and into 2021 and beyond. 3.5 Broadband The county is continuing to show a strong increase in broadband accessibility. Broadband is one of the key drivers in maintaining competitiveness and supporting socio-economic development. It provides a connectivity that has transformed the way people and businesses operate. From 2017 to 2019, there was an increase of 505 premises covered by Broadband, from 47,650 to 48,155. Over the same period commercial broadband availability has increased from 47% to 62%. The availability of Broadband is becoming a prerequisite for economic competitiveness and there is also an increased reliance on broadband for communication and entertainment. The Covid-19 pandemic with its associated social distancing has led to a paradigm shift in terms of accepting remote work and social practices and these have become extensively prevalent. It is anticipated that many of the trends that developed in response to Covid-19 will remain, potentially speeding up the reliance on broadband. The National Broadband Plan7 will be rolled out nationwide over the next seven years. The contract for the National Broadband Plan State intervention area was awarded in November 2019. Over the next four years, more than 90% of premises in the State will have access to these services, opening up opportunities in health, agriculture, education, rural development and tourism. A mobile broadband taskforce was established to identify solutions to broadband and mobile phone coverage deficits and to investigate how better services can be provided to consumers prior to the NBP rollout. See Figure 3.2 for the intervention areas in Co. Kilkenny. 7 https://nbi.ie/

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    Chapter 3 Demographic and Socio-Economic Trends Kilkenny City and County Development Plan Volume 1 26 3.6 Travel to Work The travel modes used by people travelling to work, school or college in the county are set out below for 2006, 2011 and 2016. The census figures show that in 2016, 3,242 persons worked from home, up from 2852 persons in 2011. It is anticipated that the numbers in “work from home” category will increase significantly in the next census, primarily due to the changes brought about by Covid-19. The CSO figures show an overwhelming majority still use the private car as a means of transport and this percentage is rising, with 61.9% of the total numbers travelling using the car either as a passenger or as driver in 2006, and this had increased to 64.5% in 2011 and 65% in 2016. Table 3.13: Mode of travel to work, school or college in 2006, 2011 and 2016 Year On foot Bicycle Bus, mini bus or coach Train Motorcycle or scooter Car driver Car passen ger Other (includes working from home) Not stated Total 2006 7,223 891 5,568 175 204 24,974 11,094 7,374 692 58,195 2011 7,229 751 4,464 221 108 25,481 11,942 6,283 1,540 58,019 2016 7,237 814 5,014 307 116 27,878 13,354 6746 1,965 63,426 According to the CSO, approximately 62 per cent of workers spend less than 30 minutes travelling to work and just under 5 per cent spend more than 1 hour travelling to work. On average, workers in County Kilkenny live just over 18Km from their place of work, compared to an average of 15km nationally. 3.7 Unemployment Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, unemployment in the county had decreased significantly from 2011 to 2020. This has been due to a sustained recovery which led to the live register decreasing to around 3,254 in early 2020. Following the very severe economic shock that has been brought about by the Covid-19 virus, Covid-19 pandemic unemployment payments were made to 10,658 persons in the county during the month of May 2020. This had reduced to 4,000 by the 11th August8. Covid-19 will continue to affect the economy for some time to come. The historic unemployment rates are set out in Table 3.14. Table 3.14 Unemployment rates in County Kilkenny Year Unemployed Persons % Rate 2006 3,233 7.5% 2011 8,992 19.4% 2016 6,044 12.7% Source: CSO, 2011, 2016 The employed labour force within the County was 37,273 in 20119 and increased to 41,363 in 2016. 8https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/e936b-update-on-payments-awarded-for-covid-19-pandemic-unemploymentpayment-and-enhanced-illness-benefit/ 9 CSO, 2016 and Kilkenny Economic and Community Monitor, 2020

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