Leitrim County Development Plan 2023–2029

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   3.4 Housing Needs Demand Assessment National Policy Objective 37 of the NPF states that a “Housing Needs Demand Assessment (HNDA) is to be undertaken for each Local Authority in order to correlate and accurately align future housing requirements”. This assessment will evaluate the number of additional housing units required to meet existing and future demand. The Housing Strategy Modelling and Housing Need Demand Assessment are provided in Appendix V of this Plan. The Housing Strategy is therefore underpinned by the Housing Needs Demand Assessment (HNDA), which provides an evidence base to inform and guide policies and objectives contained in the Plan. The HNDA considers demographic and socio-economic trends to analyse current levels of demand and supply within Leitrim’s housing market (owner occupier, private rental and social housing) and includes projections for future need over the lifetime of the Plan based on economic growth, income levels/mortgage capacity and affordability in the housing market. The resultant Housing Strategy seeks to address these needs to ensure that housing is available for persons with different levels of income. It also assesses the mix of house types and sizes and highlights the need to counteract undue segregation in housing between persons of different social backgrounds. The steps of a HNDA are set out in the NPF and are illustrated overleaf in Figure 3.1. The principal findings to emerge from the analysis presented in this Housing Strategy, informed by the HNDA are as follows: ● Housing provision for a total of 1,208 no. new households will be required to meet the population targets set for Co. Leitrim over the period of the Development Plan which would provide for a population in excess of 35,000 people ● The average household size is projected to continue to fall to 2.46 by 2028 from a recorded level of 2.55 in 2016 ● In 2020, the average price for a dwelling in Co. Leitrim was €119,301, the lowest in the country compared to a national average of €263,892 ● Leitrim recorded a standardised rent of €626 at the end of 2020, the lowest in the country, compared to a national average of €1,256 (€904 outside of the Greater Dublin Area) ● An average of 328 no. second hand homes were sold each year between 2015-2020 ● The availability of zoned land is not expected to act as a constraint over the course of the Development Plan 2023– 2029 ● The projected need for social and affordable housing over the life of the Plan is estimated at 18.8% (227 no. households) ● It is projected that there will be no material change in the proportion of tenure composition over the period of the Plan with 73% being owner occupied, 14% private rental, 8% social rental and 5% other ● There will be a gradual increase in the percentage of 1 and 2 person households being formed with a corresponding decline in the larger 4 and 5+ person households LEITRIM COUNTY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2029 – VOLUME I 41 3 Housing

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   Figure 3.1: Steps involved in preparing a Housing Needs Demand Assessment Demographic trends, affordability trends and wider economic trends. The use of economic forecasting or econometric work underpins this section. Data requirements include household composition/projections, house prices, rents, number of first time buyers (FTBs) and loan to value (LTV) mortgage rates, economic activity and employment rates etc. Housing Stock Profile Pressures (and existing need) and management issues. Undertaking a detailed profile of local housing stock and stock pressures, including local authority housing, to identify the main pressures relating to supply and demand, ineffective stock and overall condition as well as priorities for future stock management. Information is required on dwelling size, dwelling type, dwelling condition and stock pressures (occupancy/under occupancy stock turnover etc). Estimating Future Housing Need and Demand. This is broken down into: owner occupation, private sector, below market rent and social rent. Detailed guidance is provided on how to undertake this work, including how and on what evidence to base assumptions on wealth affordability, both in terms of home ownership and the different rental categories. Source: National Planning Framework LEITRIM COUNTY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2029 – VOLUME I42 3 Housing

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   3.5 Social and Affordable Housing The modelling undertaken to inform the HNDA assesses the ability of households securing sufficient income to satisfy the Central Bank rules in relation to mortgages. 7 Each of ten equal groups into which a population can be divided according to the distribution of values of a particular variable. 8 Step-by-Step Guide to Preparation of a Part V Housing Strategy It involves: ● determining the number of additional households in each income decile7 ● projecting house price bands and the number of units coming forward in those price bands ● establishing the number of households which do not meet the affordability criteria ● expressing this as a percentage of the total additional households forming during the plan period Interest rates for mortgages are currently averaging 3.0% (Central Bank, 2020). It can be expected that these rates will remain at this level for at least the next two years. The Central Bank analysis suggests that interest rates will remain at this level in the medium term. The Housing Strategy therefore assumes an interest rate of 3.0% for the life of this Plan. The mortgage repayments were calculated using a loan to value ratio of 0.9 for a 25-year repayment period. A maximum of 35% of household income on mortgage costs is applied in accordance with the annuity formula specified in the Step-by-Step Guide8. Table 3.1 outlines the affordable house prices per decile for Co. Leitrim based on estimated household disposable incomes which in turn indicates the ability to satisfy Central Bank lending rules. Table 3.1: Approximate Affordable House Prices per Decile 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 1st decile €57,350 €59,128 €60,961 €62,850 €64,799 €66,807 €68,878 2nd decile €94,163 €97,082 €100,091 €103,194 €106,393 €109,691 €113,092 3rd decile €134,963 €139,147 €143,460 €147,908 €152,493 €157,220 €162,094 4th decile €171,994 €177,326 €182,823 €188,490 €194,334 €200,358 €206,569 5th decile €210,716 €217,248 €223,983 €230,926 €238,085 €245,466 €253,075 6th decile €251,260 €259,049 €267,080 €275,359 €283,896 €292,696 €301,770 7th decile €298,152 €307,395 €316,924 real €336,878 €347,321 €358,088 8th decile €353,051 €363,996 €375,280 €386,914 €398,908 €411,274 €424,024 9th decile €428,057 €441,326 €455,008 €469,113 €483,655 €498,649 €514,107 10th decile €647,344 €667,412 €688,102 €709,433 €731,425 €754,100 €777,477 On the basis of the modelling undertaken, there is projected to be a surplus of units for all price bands. However, this does not consider the inactivity at present in relation to the multiple house construction sector in the county and the fact that it does not appear profitable at present for new private housing developments to commence. The Council await proposed legislative amendments in relation to Affordable Housing generally to reconcile this reality which is beyond the scope of a Development Plan to remedy. LEITRIM COUNTY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2029 – VOLUME I 43 3 Housing

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   Section 94 of the Act requires the estimation of the social housing requirements to now also include cost rental considerations required in Co. Leitrim over the life of the Plan. The households that do not qualify for a mortgage and who cannot afford private rental accommodation are those in need of social (and affordable) housing. Table 3.2 summarises the requirement for the period Q3 2022 to Q2 2028. Table 3.2: Social and Affordable Housing Requirement 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Total Plan H’holds New Household Formations 30 181 202 209 200 206 210 1,208 Number of Additional Households Qualifying for a Mortgage 24 144 160 166 159 164 167 961 Number of Additional Households not qualifying for Mortgage 8 37 41 43 41 52 43 247 Of which can afford Private Rental 1 3 3 3 3 4 4 20 Of which can’t afford Private Rental 7 34 38 40 38 38 39 227 Social Housing Percentage 22.6 18.8 18.9 19.0 18.9 18.5 18.5 18.8 Source: Co. Leitrim Housing Strategy The Housing Strategy estimates that there will be a requirement for 227 no. social housing units over the period of the plan amounting to 18.8% of additional households formed. These households do not meet the affordability criteria for a mortgage and cannot afford a privately rented property. The basis for these calculations is provided for in the Housing Strategy. The estimated breakdown of social housing requirement by unit size is as detailed in Table 3.3. It is based upon the current housing waiting list requirements. Table 3.3: Social Housing Unit Size Unit Size % Requirement 1 Bedroom 123 (54%) 2 Bedroom 68 (30%) 3 Bedroom 30 (13%) 4 + Bedroom 7 (3%) Source: Leitrim County Council Housing Department LEITRIM COUNTY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2029 – VOLUME I44 3 Housing

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   3.6 Summary of Social Housing Needs Assessment 2020 In 2020, the net housing need on completion of the assessment was 190 no. households qualifying for social housing support compared to 367 no. households qualifying in the previous assessment undertaken in 2016. This represents a decrease in 51.7% over the period and demonstrates the progress made by the Housing Authority over this period. While there has been a significant decrease in overall number of households requiring housing assistance, more households see their needs met through a variety of options provided by the Local Authority. There has been a much wider use of the Housing Assistance Programme (HAP) scheme with the number of households availing of the HAP scheme recorded at 305 no. households in 2020, an increase from the 238 no. households having received HAP payments in June 2019. Over 76% of the households on the list are either composed of a single person or a lone parent. The single person household is the one which has remained consistent with the results from the previous assessment undertaken in 2019. Couples with or without children account for less than onequarter of the list. Table 3.4: Household Composition of Applicants on Housing Waiting List 2019-2020 Household Composition Applicants (2020) Applicants (2019) Single Adult 114 117 1 Adult 1 Child 19 16 1 Adult 2 Child + 13 14 2 Adult 17 19 2 Adult + Child 9 16 other 18 7 Total 190 189 Source: Leitrim County Council Housing Department Further details and a breakdown of need by category is provided in the Housing Strategy. The mechanisms for delivering social housing include the following: ● Part V of the Planning and Development Act 2000, as amended ● Direct construction by Local Authorities or in partnership with Approved Housing Bodies (AHBs) ● Rental Accommodation Scheme (RAS), Social Housing Lease Initiatives and Housing Assistance Payments (HAPs) ● Purchase of new or second-hand residential units ● Casual vacancies LEITRIM COUNTY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2029 – VOLUME I 45 3 Housing

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   3.7 Tenure and Household Composition Table 3.5 indicates that owner occupied households is the dominant housing tenure in Co. Leitrim accounting for 73% of private households in 20169. 14% of private households were living in privately rented houses and 8% in social housing. Further detail of the breakdown of the type of tenure is provided in the Housing Strategy. Table 3.5: Leitrim Housing Tenure in 2016 Permanent Private Households % of Households Owner Occupied 9,046 73% Rented (Privately) 1,773 14% Social Housing 1,003 8% Other 582 5% Total 12,404 100% Source: CSO 9 Under the 2016 Census, tenure is established with reference to ‘permanent private households’ while household size and accommodation type is defined with reference to ‘private households’. The NPF also indicates that consideration should be given to housing tenure requirements. The last three intercensal periods have been reviewed. There has been no material change in proportion in each of the tenure categories. As such it is projected that there will be no material change in tenure composition for the period of the Plan, with 73% being owner occupied, 14% private rental, 8% social rental, and 5% other. Table 3.6 shows the accommodation type in the county. In 2016, over 95% of the county housing stock consisted of houses or bungalows in 2016 and only 4% of the households were living in an apartment or flat. Table 3.6: Leitrim Private Households by Accommodation Type in 2016 Accommodation Type Number of Private Households % of Households House/Bungalow 11,774 94.6% Flat/Apartment 489 3.9% Caravan/Mobile Home 48 0.4% Not stated 141 1.1% Total 12,452 100% Source: CSO LEITRIM COUNTY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2029 – VOLUME I46 3 Housing

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   Household composition has been modelled for the period of the Plan, having regard to the assumptions in relation to reduced household size. Table 3.7 shows that there is a projected gradual increase in the percentage of 1 and 2 person households, with a corresponding decline in larger 4 and 5+ person households. Table 3.7: Projected Household Composition 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 1 person 30.7% 30.7% 30.8% 30.9% 30.9% 31.0% 31.0% 2 persons 29.1% 29.2% 29.3% 29.5% 29.6% 29.7% 29.8% 3 persons 15.1% 15.1% 15.1% 15.1% 15.1% 15.1% 15.1% 4 persons 13.5% 13.5% 13.4% 13.4% 13.4% 13.3% 13.3% 5+ persons 11.8% 11.6% 11.5% 11.1% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% Source: Leitrim County Council 3.8 Vacant and Unfinished Housing Leitrim County Council has made significant progress in managing and coordinating the completion of Unfinished Housing Developments in the county. There are only 9 no. developments that were registered as unfinished in the 2016 Survey remaining on the database with all other developments having been completed or works having re-commenced on site. The Planning Authority estimate that of the housing developments which could be considered viable to complete where there are houses constructed therein which are substantially completed, that there remains a total of 107 no. units to be completed and occupied. There are a further 49 no. units which although substantially complete, it is considered that the viability of bringing such units to the market is low or that there remain legal impediments preventing the sale of the overall developments. With regard to the remaining unfinished residential developments in the county, the Council will continue to work proactively with residents, developers and all relevant stakeholders to secure satisfactory completion. Table 3.8: Leitrim Unfinished Estates Survey 2020 Total All Units Occupied Houses Vacant Houses Near Completion Under Construction Not Started Permission Expired 599 192 45 96 204 148 266 Source: Leitrim County Council LEITRIM COUNTY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2029 – VOLUME I 47 3 Housing

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   3.9 Groups With Specific Planning Needs There are a number of groups in society with specific design and planning needs including: children/young people, people with disabilities, older people, ethnic minorities and the Traveller community. The Council recognises the importance of planning for the needs of these groups. Further details are provided in the Housing Strategy. 3.10 Accommodation for Older People/ Age Friendly Housing Accommodation for older people is a growing concern at both national and local level, with population trends indicating that the over 65 age categories have increased to 19.1% in the State since 2011 (CSO, 2017). 10 The Assembly supports the specific designation of lands in Development Plans for nursing homes and sheltered housing, whilst ensuring these facilities are integrated within the communities they serve. This is projected to increase by at least 30% by 2026. During the 2016 Census, 5,409 people were over 65 years old accounting for almost 17% of Co. Leitrim’s population. The growing need to accommodate an ageing population is evidenced by the publication in Housing Options for our Ageing Population in February 2019. Older people can be particularly vulnerable when renting, as reduced income upon retirement is not indexed to increasing rental prices. There are various means to provide for their housing needs, which include ‘ageing in place’ and nursing home care. The Social Housing Needs Assessment indicated that the age of the main applicant for 26 no. households in 2020 was aged 60 years or over. Although this number has fluctuated between 2015 and 2020, it has not increased in terms of number of households. Leitrim County Council has also prepared an Age Friendly Strategy 2017-2020 which sets out actions to be pursued by the Council in relation to the housing needs of older people. This Plan supports the provision of a mix of house types that provide a choice for older people and encourages private developers to incorporate the principles of universal design into new residential properties. The adaption of existing homes to meet the changing needs of older people is also supported. It is recognised that there are opportunities for infill development in central locations in established urban areas to meet the housing needs of older people. This also promotes compact growth and consolidation. Such development will be encouraged, subject to the appropriate standards being met. One such site has been identified in Ballinamore in recognition of the Regional Planning Objective 7.1410. The Local Authority is committed to facilitating older persons living independently for longer and remaining part of their community. LEITRIM COUNTY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2029 – VOLUME I48 3 Housing

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   3.11 Accommodation of Members of the Travelling Community In November 2018, there were 75 no. Traveller families resident in the county, which breaks down in accommodation types as follows: ● 27 no. families in standard Local Authority housing (including provided and managed by Approved Housing Bodies) ● 18 no. families in Traveller specific accommodation ● 21 no. families in long term accommodation schemes (Social Housing Lease Initiative, RAS, HAP, Rent Supplement) ● 9 no. families in categories as ‘other’ Co. Leitrim has one Traveller Group Housing Scheme/ Halting site at Rosebank in Carrick-on- Shannon which has 14 no. accommodation bays. Leitrim County Council assessed the accommodation requirements of the Traveller Community and prepared the Traveller Accommodation Programme (TAP) 2019-2024 based on this assessment. The TAP was adopted in September 2019. The current TAP seeks to provide an additional 25 no. units for members of the Travelling Community. At the end of October 2020, 8 no. units had already been provided. In comparison, the previous TAP which covered the period 2014-2018 had a target of 46 no. units with 54 no. units having been provided. The programme will be predominately driven by standard social housing provision, either through new units or casual vacancies as they arise during the delivery period, in line with Leitrim County Council’s Allocation Scheme. The expressed accommodation preference of the majority of Traveller housing applicants is for standard Local Authority housing or private rented accommodation. Standard social housing includes housing provided by either the Local Authority or AHBs directly, or through term leasing arrangements. With the exception of a small number of households who wish to be accommodated at the existing Rosebank Traveller Group Housing Scheme in Carrick-on-Shannon, no demand or requirement for additional Traveller-specific accommodation has been expressed or identified. The TAP was based on the Annual Count of Travellers recorded on Friday 30th November 2018 and a Housing Needs Assessment completed as of Wednesday 30th January 2019. Table 3.9: Projected Needs 2019-2024 Category No. of Households Households assessed as having a current housing need 12 New Household Formations 13 Total 25 LEITRIM COUNTY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2029 – VOLUME I 49 3 Housing

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    3.12 Accommodation for People with Disabilities Disability is defined by four types: sensory disability, mental health disability, physical disability and intellectual disability. The delivery of housing for people with disabilities requires co-ordination between design teams and community support networks in order to ensure specific housing needs are met. The Council provides accommodation for disabled people through various means including the adaption of existing housing stock and the construction of specially designed units, subject to adequate funding and resources being available. In the 2019 Housing Needs Assessment there were 49 no. households assessed as having a basis of need under one of these disability categories. In 2016, the Council prepared a Strategic Plan for Housing Persons with Disabilities. The Plan seeks to achieve better co-ordination and delivery of housing and related support services for people with disabilities and to strategically plan for the short, medium, and long-term housing needs of this group. The Strategic Plan outlines a number of actions to be implemented in Co. Leitrim. These include: ● To reuse vacant adapted or disability designed dwellings to fulfil the needs of households on the housing disability list ● Universal design incorporated into new builds ● Tenants of a disability unit which has had specific disability adaptation cannot purchase their accommodation as to guarantee its return to the Local Authority’s stock ● Transfer option to a more suitable unit will always be favoured to adaptation works ● Suite of private adaptation grants to facilitate independent living at home for older persons or persons with a disability 3.13 Accommodation for the Homeless The Housing (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2009 directly addresses the needs of the homeless. The threat of homelessness is increasing with rising property and rental prices nationally but also in Co. Leitrim. Category D of the social housing needs assessment accounts for these households. The 2019 and 2020 Housing Needs Assessment included one household with a basis of need stated as ‘homelessness’. It is important to note that the data may not include all homeless people, as not all homeless people declare themselves as such. In accordance with Section 40 of the Housing (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2009, Leitrim County Council forms part of the North West Joint Homelessness Consultative Forum, which adopted the North West Homelessness Action Plan 2013-2018, setting out the vision, aims and key performance indicators to achieve specific outcomes in the region. This plan is currently under review by the North West Joint Homelessness Consultative Forum. LEITRIM COUNTY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2029 – VOLUME I50 3 Housing

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