Louth County Development Plan 2021–2027

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   Chapter 2 – Core Strategy and Settlement Strategy Louth County Development Plan 2021-2027 2-13 Map 2.1 – Core Strategy Map

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   Chapter 2 – Core Strategy and Settlement Strategy Louth County Development Plan 2021-2027 2-14 2.5 POPULATION TRENDS Census 2016 recorded a population of 4,761,865 in Ireland, representing an increase of 3.8% on Census 2011. Urban settlements in the country, of which there are 200, accounted for 63% of the population. Outside of the five cities of Dublin, Cork, Waterford, Galway and Limerick, 29% of Ireland’s population lives in towns and villages of at least 1,500 or more people. Louth’s population in 2016 was 128,884 which was an increase on the 2011 census, albeit, at a slower rate from the levels experienced in previous inter-censal periods. This reduced rate of increase can be attributed to the recession, in the period 2008-2014, which impacted on population trends and the movement of people, with changing migration patterns experienced. This included for high levels of emigration and a decrease in inward migration at a national, regional and county level, which ultimately resulted in a decrease in the rate of population growth. With this in mind, a 10 year outlook on the level of growth in the County between 2006-2016 provides a more balanced overview of population growth which occurred prior to and during the recession. During this period the average population increase per annum was 1,762 persons. Table 2.5 provides an overview of population growth in the County between 2002-2016 and indicates the different rates of population growth experienced during this period. As the economy began to recover from 2014 and employment opportunities in the country improved, migration patterns began to change. 2016 was the first year since 2009 where there was a return to net inward migration at a national level. This trend continued in 2018 and 2019 where there was a net inward migration of 34,000 and 33,7002 respectively which increased the rate of population growth at national level. The outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic and the associated lockdown, which occurred in spring 2020, has curtailed the movement of people throughout the world. It is anticipated that will impact on population growth and migration patterns in the immediate term with the mediumlong term impacts unclear at the time of writing. 2.5.1 Population Distribution The population of the County is distributed across a network of urban and rural settlements and the open countryside. The population concentration in Drogheda and Dundalk in combination with its small landmass makes Louth the County with the highest percentage of an urban population outside of Dublin, with 66.1% of the population living in urban areas in 2016. Table 2.6 sets out the County population distribution based on the definition of aggregate urban and rural areas by the CSO. 2 CSO Population and Migration Estimates August 2019

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   Chapter 2 – Core Strategy and Settlement Strategy Louth County Development Plan 2021-2027 2-15 Table 2.5: Population Growth in Louth 2002-2016 Year Population Population increase Inter-censal period % increase in the inter-censal period Average annual increase 2002 101,281 N/A N/A N/A N/A 2006 111,267 9,986 2002-2006 9.9% 2,497 2011 122,897 11,630 2006-2011 10.5% 2,326 2016 128,884 5,987 2011-2016 4.9% 1,197 2006-2016 N/A 17,617 2006-2016 15.8% 1,762 Table 2.6: Population Distribution by Settlement Category CSO 2016, County Louth CSO Categorisation Settlement Category Settlement % of total population Overall County % Aggregate ‘Town’ Areas Regional Growth Centre Drogheda and Dundalk 56.7% 66.1% Self-Sustaining Growth Town Ardee and Dunleer 5.3% Self-Sustaining Town Clogherhead, Termonfeckin, Tullyallen 4.1% Aggregate ‘Rural’ Areas Self-Sustaining Town Castlebellingham/Kilsaran, Carlingford 2% 33.9% Small Town Annagassan, Baltray, Collon, Dromiskin, Knockbridge, Louth Village, Omeath, Tallanstown 3.9% Villages and Open Countryside See Table 2.4 for the list of Villages in the County 28%

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   Chapter 2 – Core Strategy and Settlement Strategy Louth County Development Plan 2021-2027 2-16 46.6% 0.6% 16.1% 6.6% 30.0% Regional Growth Centres Self-Sustaining Growth Towns Self-Sustaining Towns Small Towns Villages and Open Countryside 2.5.2 Location of Population Growth Between 2011-2016, the population of Louth increased by 5,987 persons with the highest recorded population increase of 46.6% (2,792) occurring in the RGC’s of Drogheda and Dundalk. In contrast the population of Ardee and Dunleer, now identified as Self Sustaining Growth Settlements, was almost stagnant, with a combined population increase of just 37 people (0.6%). The level of growth in the Self Sustaining Towns and Small Towns was also significantly higher than the Self- Sustaining Growth Towns of Ardee and Dunleer, with a combined population increase of 1,363 persons, equating to 22.8% of total population increase. Furthermore, the villages and open countryside experienced high levels of growth, with 30% of total population growth in the County taking place in these locations. Consequently, almost 53% of population growth in the County took place in lower tier settlements, indicating the pressure for development within these areas. Figure 2.4 illustrates the distribution of population growth by settlement category in the County between 2011 and 2016. Settlements that experienced a population increase of 100 persons or more between 2011-2016 are detailed in Table 2.7. This highlights the fact that growth is occurring in the higher tier and lower tier settlements. In percentage terms relative to the size of the settlements, the Self Sustaining Towns such as Carlingford, Tullyallen, Clogherhead, and Termonfeckin, are experiencing the highest levels of growth. Fig. 2.4: Distribution of Population Increase in the County 2011-2016 2,792 37 968 396 1,794

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   Chapter 2 – Core Strategy and Settlement Strategy Louth County Development Plan 2021-2027 2-17 Table 2.7: Settlements with a Population Increase of 100+ persons 2011-2016 Settlement Population 2011 Population 2016 Actual change % change Drogheda 32,595 34,1993 1,604 4.9% Dundalk 37,816 39,004 1,188 3.1% Carlingford 1,045 1,445 400 38.3% Omeath 503 603 100 19.9% Tullyallen 1,358 1,547 189 13.9% Termonfeckin 1,443 1,579 136 9.4% Clogherhead 1,993 2,145 152 7.6% 3 This figure is for Drogheda in County Louth only (excludes South Drogheda in County Meath). The population for the entire settlement of Drogheda in 2016 was 40,956 persons (Census 2016). 2.5.3 NPF Population Projections The NPF’s Implementation Roadmap provides that Louth’s projected population, in conjunction with the permitted 25% headroom, will be in the range of 141,500-148,404 persons by 2026. Using the higher projected growth rate and factoring into the equation that this Plan runs from 2021 to 2027, the population projection for the County in 2027 is 149,966 persons, representing an increase in population of 21,082 on the 2016 Census figure (see Table 2.8). An annualised average of the projected population increase during the period 2016-2026 was used to calculate the projected population increase between 2026-2027. This figure of 1,562 persons was added on to the 2026 projection of 148,404 to give a projected population of 149,966 in 2027. These figures are set out in greater detail in Table 2.9. Justification for adopting the higher projected growth rate for the County in conjunction with the additional 25% headroom is considered measured and appropriate. Table 2.10 illustrates how the projected annual average population increase for 2016-2027 only marginally exceeds the recorded annual average population increase experienced during the 2006-2016 period. This increased growth is considered reasonable given there are two Regional Growth Centres in the County. It will allow the strategically located settlements of Drogheda and Dundalk to continue to grow into centres of scale and create a critical mass of population that will enable them to fulfil their function as regional drivers of economic and population growth with a targeted population of 50,000 by 2031.

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   Chapter 2 – Core Strategy and Settlement Strategy Louth County Development Plan 2021-2027 2-18 Table 2.8: Population Projections for Louth 2016-2027 Population 2016 NPF Projected Population 2026 25% Headroom 2026 Projected Population Increase Projected Population 2026 including 25% Headroom Projected Annual Average Population Increase 2016 - 2026 excluding 25% Headroom Projected Population 2027 128,884 139,000 – 144,500 2,529 – 3,904 141,529 – 148,404 1,562 149,966 Table 2.9: NPF Projected Population Growth, 2027, County Louth Table 2.10: Existing and Projected Growth 2006-2027, County Louth County Population Increase 2006 -2016 Average Annual Increase 2006 -2016 Projected Population Increase 2016 -2027 Projected Annual Average Population Increase 2016 -2027 Louth 17,617 1,762 21,082 1,916 2.5.4 Population Distribution The bulk of the projected population and household growth in County Louth is directed to the RGC’s of Drogheda and Dundalk (69%) in accordance with the principle objectives of the NPF, RSES and as provided for in the Settlement Hierarchy. It is consistent with reaching a population of 50,000 in each of the towns by 2031 as set out in the RSES and supports consolidated development in these large centres to facilitate economic growth and broaden the employment base. The Self Sustaining Growth Towns of Ardee and Dunleer are important local drivers, and with continued commensurate growth, will become more self-sustaining into the future. Strengthening the role of Drogheda and Dundalk as RGCs and the Self Sustaining Growth Towns of Ardee and Dunleer is critical to address the more recent pattern of development evident during the 2011- 2016 inter-censal period where the majority of the combined population growth occurred in the lower tier towns, villages and open countryside (Figure 2.4). Such a pattern of growth is counterproductive to the stated objectives of the NPF and the RSES and to the development of Drogheda and Dundalk as Regional Growth Centres, militating against the two towns reaching their full potential as cities of scale and economic drivers in the Region. County 2016 2026 2026 incl. 25% Headroom Projected to 2027 Population Increase 2016-2027 2031 Louth 129,000 139,000 - 144,500 141,500 - 148,404 149,966 21,082 144,000 - 151,500

7. Page 67

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   Chapter 2 – Core Strategy and Settlement Strategy Louth County Development Plan 2021-2027 2-19 With 69.1% of the projected population targeted to Drogheda and Dundalk and 12.3% to Ardee and Dunleer, the residual 18.6% of the projected population will be allocated to the remaining settlements including Self Sustaining Towns, Towns and Villages and the Rural Area. In accordance with the NPF and the RSES, future growth will be directed to settlements with capacity and potential for sustainable development. With the need for greater co-ordination between land use zoning and infrastructure provision, the NPF has adopted a ‘Tiered Approach to Zoning’ identifying lands available for development and those dependent on the provision of additional services and infrastructure (See Volume 3, Appendix 2). Its success will be dependent on close collaboration between the local authority and other agencies including inter alia; Irish Water, TII, and the NTA. Louth’s projected population growth and percentage growth by Settlement Category is provided for in Table 2.11. Herein, the favoured population growth of the two Regional Growth Centres of Drogheda and Dundalk is highlighted.

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   Chapter 2 – Core Strategy and Settlement Strategy Louth County Development Plan 2021-2027 2-20 Table 2.11: Population Projections & Distribution by Settlement Category, County Louth Column A Column B Column C Column D Column E Column F Column G Column H Column I Settlement Category Settlement Census Population 2016 Projected Population 2027 Projected increase in Population Population Increase 2002- 2016 Annual Average Population increase p/a 2002-2016 Projected average Population increase per annum 2016- 2027 Projected % of Total Growth Rate 2021-2027 County Louth 128,884 149,966 21,082 27,063 1,933 1,916 100% Regional Growth Centre Drogheda 34,199 41,113 6,914 5,866 419 629 32.8% Dundalk 39,004 46,664 7,660 6,499 464 696 36.3% Self-Sustaining Growth Towns Ardee 4,928 6,583 1,655 980 70 150 7.9% Dunleer 1,822 2,757 935 808 58 85 4.4% Self-Sustaining Towns Carlingford 1,445 1,645 200 841 60 18 0.9% C’bellingham /Kilsaran 1,126 1,236 110 405 29 10 0.5% Clogherhead 2,145 2,445 300 1,239 89 27 1.4% Termonfeckin 1,579 1,829 250 1,076 77 23 1.2% Tullyallen 1,547 1,767 220 930 66 20 1.1% Small Towns Level 4 Settlements 5,103 5,888 785 1,886 135 71 3.7% Villages Level 5 Settlements 35,986 38,039 300 6,533 467 186 9.7% Rural Area Rural Area 1,753

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   Chapter 2 – Core Strategy and Settlement Strategy Louth County Development Plan 2021-2027 2-21 2.6 HOUSING 2.6.1 Introduction The economic collapse of 2008 caused a countrywide decimation of the property market evidenced in the almost complete stagnation of the previous unprecedented growth experienced in house construction. In Louth, during this period, the demand for residential development abruptly ceased with a resultant dramatic reduction in housing stock delivery, in contrast to previous years as illustrated in Table 2.12. Since approximately 2014, with the beginnings of an economic recovery, house building slowly began to increase in the County but at a much reduced rate of growth. This has subsequently placed pressure on the existing housing stock and it is anticipated this will increase as economic conditions improve. In response to this nationwide phenomenon, the Government has introduced a range of initiatives, which are outlined below: • Rebuilding Ireland: An Action Plan for Housing and Homelessness: Herein, a commitment was made to increase housing supply to 25,000 units per annum by 2020. • Local Infrastructure Housing Activation Fund (LIHAF): In 2017, the Government committed €200 million funding to provide critical infrastructure to facilitate the speedy delivery of housing in key development sites experiencing a high demand for housing. • National Development Plan (NDP): Committed capital investment of €4.2billion to the delivery of 40,000 new social housing units. • Rent Pressure Zones (RPZ): Where Rent Pressure Zones are identified annual rent increases are limited to 4%. All of County Louth with the exception of Clogher electoral area has been identified as a Rent Pressure Zone. • Land Development Agency: With an initial capital budget of €1.25 billion, the Agency has an objective to deliver 150,000 homes over a 20 year period. Of this, it is a requirement that 40% must be social/affordable with 10% to be social and 30% to be affordable. • Urban Regeneration Development Fund (URDF): This ten year fund with a budget of €2 billion supports compact sustainable development through regeneration of Ireland’s towns and cities in line with the objectives of Project Ireland 2040. 2.6.2 Recent Residential Construction A continuation of the economic recovery and improved consumer confidence is evident in the increase in housing construction in the County. The CSO Report ‘New Dwelling Completions’ 2011- 2020 illustrates a steady, continual increase in residential construction in the County since 2014 (Figure 2.5). This increased activity is set to continue having regard to the level of pre-planning enquiries, permitted SHDs, active construction sites and extant permissions in the County.

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    Chapter 2 – Core Strategy and Settlement Strategy Louth County Development Plan 2021-2027 2-22 Table 2.12: Housing Stock and Vacancy Rate, County Louth 1991-2016 Housing Stock and Vacancy Rate – County Louth Census Year 1991 1996 2002 2006 2011 2016 Total Housing Stock Numbers 28,391 34,635 37,441 45,488 51,186 51,399 Vacant (numbers) 1,983 2,249 3,053 6,107 6,232 4,7134 Vacancy Rate (%) 7% 6.5% 8.2% 13.4% 12.2% 9.2% % Increase year on Year 21.99% 8.10% 21.49% 12.53% 0.42% Source: CSO 4 This includes 761 vacant holiday homes Fig. 2.5 – New Dwelling Completions in Louth 169 191 205 146 171 200 372 599 671 618 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Louth (County Council) New Dwelling Completions in Louth 2011 - 2020 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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