Project Ireland 2040: National Planning Framework

Superseded Replaced by National Planning Framework: First Revision. It is kept because plans made while it was in force refer to it.

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   1.5 UN Sustainable Development Goals Sustainability is at the heart of long term planning and the National Planning Framework seeks to ensure that the decisions we take today, meet our own needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs. The challenge of creating a more sustainable future for Ireland is a collective responsibility on all of us. Since 2015, Ireland has been a signatory to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which frame national agendas and policies to 2030. The SDGs build on the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and have a broader agenda that applies to all countries. There is significant alignment between the UN SDGs and the National Planning Framework’s National Strategic Outcomes (NSOs) in areas such as climate action, clean energy, sustainable cities and communities, economic growth, reduced inequalities and innovation and infrastructure, as well as education and health. Source: United Nations 19Project Ireland 2040 | Building Ireland’s Future | National Planning Framework

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   2.1 Realising Ambition and Potential The purpose of the National Planning Framework is to enable all parts of Ireland, whether rural or urban, to successfully accommodate growth and change, by facilitating a shift towards Ireland’s regions and cities other than Dublin, while also recognising Dublin’s ongoing key role. Given the variety of rural and urban communities throughout Ireland, each with capacity for growth and development that can significantly influence their surrounding area, this Framework targets as much potential growth in the rest of Ireland, as in the cities. The NPF is a long-term Framework that sets out how Ireland can move away from the current, ‘business as usual’ pattern of development. This means that it seeks to disrupt trends that have been apparent for the last fifty years and have accelerated over the past twenty. Shifting a long term trend will not be achieved overnight or even in a short number of years. It will require careful balance, that on the one hand is clearly focused, while on the other, enables realisation of the widespread ambition and potential that clearly exist throughout the country. As the largest centres of population, employment and services outside the Capital, the four cities other than Dublin, provide a focus for their regions. However, it will require the combined potential of all four cities to be realised at an unprecedented rate, to create viable alternatives to Dublin, which itself must also continue to accommodate growth. A New Way Forward 20Project Ireland 2040 | Building Ireland’s Future | National Planning Framework

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   The four cities and Dublin are geographically distributed, but their influence does not extend to all parts of Ireland, in particular the North-Western and Midland regions. It is critical that those regions also are served by accessible centres of employment and services that can be a focal point for investment and have the widest possible regional influence. On the basis of available evidence, it is apparent that Sligo in the North-West and Athlone in the Midlands, fulfil these roles to a greater extent than elsewhere. It is also the case that there are significant crossborder interactions focused on key settlement networks, specifically Letterkenny-Derry in the context of the North-West Growth Partnership and Drogheda-Dundalk-Newry in the context of the Dublin-Belfast economic corridor. The growth potential associated with these interrelated networks is also important for regional development. Notwithstanding these considerations, it is emphasised that a settlement that is not specifically identified or for which specific targets are not set in this national Framework, is by no means precluded from future growth or investment. This must be considered at a regional and local scale, for which statutory planning processes exist, taking account of the general context set by the NPF. This allows for decision-making at regional and local level, which will enable investment to be properly aligned with planning, in order to achieve the National Strategic Outcomes identified. This means that that an element of future growth must be identified to take place in Ireland’s key regional centres and towns, to lead the development of their regions. The amount prioritised will be related to that targeted elsewhere and will have a knock-on impact, but this Framework also enables significant scope for ambition and balanced rural and urban development, supported by matching investment, throughout Ireland’s, towns, villages and rural areas. Choices therefore need to be made to support our regional centres and towns, learning from past experiences where population and development estimates were overstated and could not provide an effective basis for planning and investment in infrastructure and services. The alternative is the situation that had arisen by the end of the 2000’s, when there was enough land zoned for a population of 10 million people in Ireland, but not located where required. We cannot continue with such a lack of focus. In setting out a context for targeting future growth, this Framework does not seek to cap or limit the potential of places. It does, however, provide a common point of reference and co-ordination, based on the latest available evidence, to be applied nationally. The NPF is a long-term Framework that sets out how Ireland can move away from the current, ‘business as usual’ pattern of development. 21Project Ireland 2040 | Building Ireland’s Future | National Planning Framework

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   2.2 Overview of the NPF Strategy The key issue addressed in this Framework is where best to plan for our growing population and economy. In doing so, it is necessary to learn from past experiences and outline a new way forward that can channel future growth. The NPF will be aligned with and supported by new and improved investment and governance arrangements. As a strategy, all aspects are to be implemented together and are mutually complementary: Ireland’s Three Regions Targeting a level of growth in the country’s Northern and Western and Southern Regions combined, to at least match that projected in the East and Midland Region. Improving access from the north-west to Dublin and the east and to Cork, Limerick, Galway and Waterford to the south. Improving access between Cork, Limerick, Galway and Waterford. Recognising the extent to which Sligo in the North- West and Athlone in the Midlands fulfil the role of regional centres. Recognising Letterkenny in the context of the North-West Gateway Initiative and Drogheda- Dundalk in the context of the Dublin-Belfast economic corridor as important cross border networks for regional development. Enabling, through the Regional Spatial and Economic Strategy process for each Regional Assembly area, regional centres of population and employment growth. Ireland’s Capital Supporting the future growth and success of Dublin as Ireland’s leading global city of scale, by better managing Dublin’s growth to ensure that more of it can be accommodated within and close to the city. Enabling significant population and jobs growth in the Dublin metropolitan area, together with better management of the trend towards overspill into surrounding counties. Addressing infrastructural bottlenecks, improving citizens’ quality of life and increasing housing supply in the right locations. Ireland’s Cities Supporting ambitious growth targets to enable the four cities of Cork, Limerick, Galway and Waterford to each grow by at least 50% to 2040 and to enhance their significant potential to become cities of scale. Enabling the four cities to be regional drivers and to lead in partnership with each other and as partners in regional/inter-regional networks as viable alternatives to Dublin. Focusing investment to improve the collective ‘offer’ within each of the four cities, i.e. infrastructure, quality of life and choice in terms of housing, employment and amenities. Ireland’s Rural Fabric Reversing town/village and rural population decline, by encouraging new roles and functions for buildings, streets and sites. Supporting the sustainable growth of rural communities, to include development in rural areas. Implementing a properly planned local authorityled approach to identifying, meeting and managing the real housing needs arising in countryside areas. Improving local connectivity to principal communication (broadband), energy, transport and water networks. Promoting new economic opportunities arising from digital connectivity and indigenous innovation and enterprise as well as more traditional natural and resource assets (e.g. food, energy, tourism), underpinned by the quality of life offering. Compact Growth Targeting a greater proportion (40%) of future housing development to be within and close to the existing ‘footprint’ of built-up areas. Making better use of under-utilised land and buildings, including ‘infill’, ‘brownfield’ and publicly owned sites and vacant and under-occupied buildings, with higher housing and jobs densities, better serviced by existing facilities and public transport. Supporting both urban regeneration and rural rejuvenation through a €3 Billion Regeneration and Development Fund and the establishment of a National Regeneration and Development Agency. 22Project Ireland 2040 | Building Ireland’s Future | National Planning Framework

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   Ireland’s Cities Supporting ambitious growth targets to enable the four cities of Cork, Limerick, Galway and Waterford to each grow by at least 50% to 2040 and to enhance their significant potential to become cities of scale. Ireland’s Three Regions Targeting a level of growth in the country’s Northern and Western and Southern Regions combined, to at least match that projected in the Eastern and Midland Region. Ireland’s Rural Fabric Reversing town/village and rural population decline, by encouraging new roles and functions for buildings, streets and sites. Compact Growth Targeting a greater proportion (40%) of future housing development to be within and close to the existing ‘footprint’ of built-up areas. Ireland’s Capital Supporting the future growth and success of Dublin as Ireland’s leading global city of scale, by better managing Dublin’s growth to ensure that more of it can be accommodated within and close to the City. DUBLIN WATERFORD CORK LIMERICK GALWAY ATHLONE SLIGO LETTERKENNY DERRY/ LONDONDERRY BELFAST DROGHEDA DUNDALK NEWRY REGIONAL CENTRES CROSS BORDER NETWORK CITIESNorthern and Western Regional Assembly AreaNorthern IrelandEastern and Midland Regional Assembly AreaSouthern Regional Assembly Area 23

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   2.3 Strategy Development . Projections Projecting how Ireland’s population will grow and change over the next 20 years, based on a demographic and econometric model developed by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)12, is a core element of this Framework. As the projections relate to the longer term, they are indicative of what levels of growth can be expected. Population projections undertaken for national spatial plans in the past have been accurate in projecting long-term national population growth to within a few percentage points of the actual outcome13. Unlike previous projections, based entirely on demographics, the ESRI work undertaken for this Framework also factored in econometric data, including employment, jobs and house prices and modelled the spatial distribution of the projected population. Initially, the ESRI modelled a continuation of current population and economic trends to 2040, as a ‘business as usual’ scenario. The ESRI Report indicates that under this scenario, Ireland’s population will grow by just under 900,000 people, to almost 5.7 million people by 204014. This is the baseline from which potential alternative strategies were developed. The various policies in this Framework are structured under National Policy Objectives (NPOs). They were developed as a result of extensive analysis and consultation and set a new way forward for regional and local planning and sustainable development policy in Ireland. They are highlighted throughout the Document and are listed together in Appendix 1. Integrating the Environment into Planning for the Future In developing the National Planning Framework there has been a strong recognition of the need to integrate environmental considerations into land use planning in a way that responds to the sensitivities and requirements of the wider natural environment. The delivery of the vision outlined in this Framework will give rise to development and infrastructure which has the potential to impact on the receiving environment. To ensure that these potential impacts are considered at this strategic level and to signpost the requirements for lower tiers of planning, a Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), Appropriate Assessment (AA) and Strategic Flood Risk Appraisal (SFRA) have been carried out as part of the preparation of this Framework and the results have been incorporated into the process. These integrated environmental processes have included the development and appraisal of a number of strategic options and the assessment of each of the National Policy Objectives that follow. The assessments are referenced in the accompanying SEA Environmental Report, which is published as a separate document together with the Natura Impact Statement and Strategic Flood Risk Appraisal Report. A summary of environmental assessments undertaken is included as Chapter 11. 24Project Ireland 2040 | Building Ireland’s Future | National Planning Framework

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   A key factor in any population projection for Ireland is the pattern of migration, which has historically varied as a result of alternating periods of emigration or immigration, influenced by underlying economic conditions. It is clear that an increase in net inmigration to Ireland could have a positive impact on future population growth. While the reverse also applies, the ESRI projected outlook, which is a midrange scenario, is based on sustained in-migration and economic growth to 2040. To account for the possibility of higher net inmigration over the period to 2040, an allowance is made in the NPF to enable ambition and flexibility in planning for future growth. This means that full achievement of the targets set out in this Framework would accommodate around 1.1 million additional people in Ireland to 2040, which is approximately 25% more than the ESRI baseline projection. Progress towards these targets will be subject to review and further detail on phasing is set out in Chapter 10. In setting overall targets for future growth, it is a pattern of development that is being targeted, rather than precise numbers. From a long-term, national perspective, the targeted location, relative scale and proportionality of growth will assist in monitoring and assessing delivery and performance. Alternative Scenarios In developing this Framework, three broad questions were considered: 1) The extent to which future development could be better distributed between the regions, such as they are constituted, i.e. varying levels of growth between the three Regional Assembly areas. 2) Whether or not it would be better to concentrate or disperse future population, employment and housing development, ranging from a high proportion of future growth occurring in a small number of centres to a low level of growth in many. 3) The best physical format for future development, - geographically compact focusing on existing built-up areas or spread out beyond the footprint of existing built-up areas. To test these three questions, a range of options was developed for each. Different combinations of the options were then used to generate alternative future planning scenarios. These scenarios were modelled by the ESRI and potential outcomes assessed. The most realistic, reasonable, viable and implementable option was identified to form the basis of a preferred strategy for the National Planning Framework. 25Project Ireland 2040 | Building Ireland’s Future | National Planning Framework

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   In similar terms, applying the ESRI projections for around two-thirds of a million additional jobs in Ireland by 2040 and seeking a shift in the pattern away from current trends, means planning for a pattern of: National Policy Objective 1c Eastern and Midland Region: around 320,000 additional people in employment i.e. 1.34 million in total; Northern and Western Region: around 115,000 additional people in employment i.e. 450,000 (0.45m) in total; Southern Region: around 225,000 additional people in employment i.e. 880,000 (0.875m) in total. The work undertaken for the National Planning Framework indicates that the key to securing the scale of regional population and employment growth potential above is closely related to how we address the latter two questions in Section 2.2, relating to concentration/dispersal and the physical format for future development. 2.4 Growing Our Regions A range of options were considered and applied to the three regions established in 2014. These range from ‘business as usual’, under which a majority of growth would occur in the Eastern and Midland Region if current trends continue, to ‘regional dominance’, whereby the combined Northern and Western and Southern Regional Assembly areas would grow at twice the rate of the Eastern and Midland Region. It is evident from the analysis undertaken, that a regional dominance approach is neither realistic nor implementable given the significance of Dublin and would result in a diminished scale of overall national development. In accordance with the National Planning Framework vision, ‘regional parity’ is considered to be a more credible, reasonable and viable alternative scenario, whereby the targeted growth of the Northern and Western and Southern Regional Assembly areas combined would exceed that projected under a ‘business as usual’ scenario and would at least equate to that projected for the Eastern and Midland Region. Accordingly, the NPF target in relation to growing our regions is: National Policy Objective 1a The projected level of population and employment growth in the Eastern and Midland Regional Assembly area will be at least matched by that of the Northern and Western and Southern Regional Assembly areas combined. In terms of Ireland’s future population, targeting this pattern is significant because it represents a shift from current trends. In the context of around one million additional people in Ireland by 2040, it means planning for: National Policy Objective 1b Eastern and Midland Region: 490,000 - 540,000 additional people i.e. a population of around 2.85 million; Northern and Western Region: 160,000 - 180,000 additional people i.e. a population of just over 1 million; Southern Region: 340,000 - 380,000 additional people i.e. a population of almost 2 million. It is evident from the analysis undertaken, that a regional dominance approach is neither realistic nor implementable given the significance of Dublin and would result in a diminished scale of overall national development. 26Project Ireland 2040 | Building Ireland’s Future | National Planning Framework

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   2.5 Building Stronger Regions: Accessible Centres of Scale On a ‘business as usual’ approach, the ESRI projection to 2040 indicates that the highest per capita rates of population and jobs growth are likely to occur in Dublin and the four surrounding counties, as well as Cork and Galway, with almost 40% of additional jobs projected in Dublin alone. The lowest per capita rates of projected population and jobs growth would be in the mid-border and north-western Counties. Under ‘business as usual’, a continued focus on growth in and around Dublin and to some extent Cork, Limerick, Galway and Waterford without addressing the specific development challenges facing other regions, such as the accessibility and urban structure of the north-west or the economic underperformance of the South-East, would have negative consequences that would further add to growth pressures in the wider Dublin Region and inhibit more peripheral parts of Ireland from realising their full potential. This is not a desirable scenario and in considering alternative options, the two key variables are the scale of concentration of activity and the relative distance, or ease of accessibility, to larger centres of population and employment, i.e. ‘centres of scale’. There are therefore important twin elements of strategy required to address issues of scale and peripherality in Ireland. Both have significant influence on a wider geographic area. The first, which is a concerted effort to focus on building internationally, nationally and regionally strong cities and towns could deliver a lot of positive impacts and enhance overall national growth so that: future population and jobs growth would be geographically more aligned; future jobs growth would be geographically more distributed, but to a limited number of larger and regionally distributed centres, to include the North and West and Midlands; the significant growth potential of Cork, Limerick, Galway and Waterford separate from Dublin would be realised, while at the same time enhancing and enabling Dublin’s unique role as an international city of scale; Ireland’s regions, and in particular the north and west and midlands, would be turned around to better harness their potential for focused investment. The second, complementary element of this twin strategy requires: Improved accessibility between centres of scale separate from Dublin, to ensure that levels of service (travel times per km) between the Capital and Ireland’s cities and larger regionally distributed centres are replicated and on key east-west and north-south routes; A particular focus on improving accessibility and connectivity northwards on the emerging Atlantic Economic Corridor (AEC) network, that links a network of major centres on the western seaboard; Improved accessibility and connectivity from surrounding regions, focused on key routes to a number of larger and regionally distributed centres. To deliver the above means: National Policy Objective 2a A target of half (50%) of future population and employment growth will be focused in the existing five cities and their suburbs15. National Policy Objective 2b The regional roles of Athlone in the Midlands, Sligo and Letterkenny in the North-West and the Letterkenny-Derry and Drogheda- Dundalk-Newry cross-border networks will be identified and supported in the relevant Regional Spatial and Economic Strategy. National Policy Objective 2c Accessibility from the north-west of Ireland and between centres of scale separate from Dublin will be significantly improved, focused on cities and larger regionally distributed centres and on key east-west and northsouth routes. As key elements of the strategy, the distribution of future growth between the regions, when combined with building scale and accessibility, serve to set a new way forward. However, the question of compact development or sprawl is also critical to this new course. 27Project Ireland 2040 | Building Ireland’s Future | National Planning Framework

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    2.6 Securing Compact and Sustainable Growth The physical format of urban development in Ireland is one of our greatest national development challenges. Analysis undertaken in the preparation of the National Planning Framework, shows that more than anything else, getting the physical form and location of future development right offers the best prospects for unlocking regional potential. Presently, the fastest growing areas are at the edges of and outside our cities and towns, meaning: A constant process of infrastructure and services catch-up in building new roads, new schools, services and amenities and a struggle to bring jobs and homes together, meaning that there are remarkably high levels of car dependence and that it is difficult to provide good public transport; A gradual process of run-down of city and town centre and established suburban areas as jobs, retail and housing move out, leaving behind declining school enrolments, empty buildings and a lack of sufficient people to create strong and vibrant places, both day and night; That most development takes the form of greenfield sprawl that extends the physical footprint of our urban areas, and when it is the principal form of development, works against the creation of attractive, liveable, high quality urban places in which people are increasingly wishing to live, work and invest, and A significantly higher carbon footprint than the EU average, in part due to higher transport and energy demand, mostly based on fossil fuels, that has worked against achieving agreed climate action targets. A preferred approach would be compact development that focuses on reusing previously developed, ‘brownfield’ land, building up infill sites, which may not have been built on before and either reusing or redeveloping existing sites and buildings. An increase in the proportion of more compact forms of growth in the development of settlements of all sizes, from the largest city to the smallest village, has the potential to make a transformational difference. It can bring new life and footfall, contribute to the viability of services, shops and public transport, increase housing supply and enable more people to be closer to employment and recreational opportunities, as well as to walk or cycle more and use the car less. Along with transport demand, higher densities and shorter travel distances will also reduce energy demand and use. Multi-storey and terraced buildings in close proximity require less energy and make renewablesbased systems of energy distribution such as district heating, more feasible. Creating more compact development in Ireland has been traditionally more difficult to achieve than a continuous process of pushing development outwards, towards ‘greenfield’ locations and requires focus on four key areas: 1 The ‘liveability’ or quality of life of urban places – how people experience living in cities, towns and villages. This includes the quality of the built environment, including the public realm, traffic and parking issues, access to amenities and public transport and a sense of personal safety and well-being; 2 Making the continuous regeneration and development of existing built up areas as attractive and as viable as greenfield development. This requires greater certainty and cost equalisation as a result of a steady supply of sites and land and investment in infrastructure and amenities through more active land management in urban areas; 3 Tackling legacies such as concentrations of disadvantage in central urban areas through holistic social as well as physical regeneration and by encouraging more mixed tenure and integrated communities; 4 Linking regeneration and redevelopment initiatives to climate action, to support a reduced carbon footprint through greater energy efficiency and use of renewables. In the long term, meeting Ireland’s development needs in housing, employment, services and amenities on mainly greenfield locations will cost at least twice that of a compact growth based approach16. Accordingly, subject to implementation of sustainable planning and environmental principles, the National Planning Framework sets the following urban development targets: 28Project Ireland 2040 | Building Ireland’s Future | National Planning Framework

Source Government of Ireland: Project Ireland 2040: National Planning Framework (February 2018) · Licence the publisher's termsText read from the publisher’s PDF; tables, maps and drawings do not survive as text, and page numbers are the PDF’s (its first page is 1). Check the original before relying on a passage.