Regional Spatial and Economic Strategy 2020–2032

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   EDUCATION Understanding the levels of educational attainment within a region is important to assess the skills available. The range of educational attainment within the region is broadly similar to national figures. The chart below gives a general indication of the range of educational attainment at the regional level. Census 2016 reveals that parts of the NWRA region compare favourably with the State average, where we see Galway City lead the way on a total percentage of 41% of its residents with Level 7 degree or above, Galway County follows, while Sligo matches the State average. When we focus on the changes that have occurred since 2011, there is a marked increase in the levels of educational attainment. Focusing on this change provides an entirely different, and wholly positive picture of the trends within the region, where the workforce and population are becoming more educated, and therefore levels of talent are increasing. Areas, where there is a greater proportion of third-level educated persons is around the key regional settlements of Galway, Sligo, Letterkenny and Athlone, where 3rd level institutions are located. Figure 14: Range of Educational Attainment at a Regional Level Levels 1/2/3: Junior Cert and below Levels 4/5: Leaving Cert / Vocational Levels 7/8: Undergraduate Degree Level 6: Apprenticeship Certificate Level 9: Postgraduate Not Stated No Formal Education Level 10: PHDNorthern & Western Regional Assembly 21 1 Context

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   Regional Spatial and Economic Strategy 2020-203222 1 Context

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   REGIONAL SPATIAL AND ECONOMIC STRATEGY 2020-20322Strategic Vision 23

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   Strategic Vision 2.1 Making Good Strategy Our Regional Spatial and Economic Strategy is based on partnership, collaborative leadership, with a clear focus on place-based regional economic development and effective regional planning. Strategy is concerned with getting from where we are to where we want to be. Our vision for the RSES has been stimulated by the desire to achieve something, and that requires creativity and analysis. It also requires leadership to inspire others in the formulation and delivery of the strategy. This RSES provides a robust strategy to deliver anticipated growth, building upon this region’s key strategic assets and opportunities and addressing challenges ahead. It provides Regional Development Objectives that guide policy responses to ensure that people’s needs – such as access to housing, jobs, ease of travel and overall well-being – are met, up to 2040 and beyond. VISION The vision of the Regional Spatial and Economic Strategy is ‘To play a leading role in the transformation of this region into a vibrant, connected, natural, inclusive and smart place to work and live.’ This shall be achieved by working together to create BETTER PLACES by adopting best practice in international spatial and economic development; Achieving COMPETITIVENESS by optimising EU and exchequer funding and harnessing the strengths of our ‘place’, through COLLABORATION.Regional Spatial and Economic Strategy 2020-2032 24 2

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   TRENDS An analysis of current development trends and work undertaken by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) for the NPF in projecting likely future development scenarios to 2040 concluded that if we don’t plan strategically and make decisions based on new trends and evidence then this region risks entering a vicious circle of regional economic decline. The research suggests that there will be: g a continuation of sprawling growth; g the ongoing shift of people and jobs to Dublin and the east coast; g a degraded environment; g the continuing disparity between where people live and work, with increased commuting times; g exacerbation of rural and village decline; g uncompetitive cities and urban areas. The NPF sets out how we must move away from the current, ‘business as usual’ pattern of development. This means that it is necessary to disrupt trends that have been apparent for the last fifty years and have accelerated over the past twenty. As we respond to these challenges together, we need to think and act deliberately to grow the region’s resilience. We need a strong focus on a vibrant diversified economy and continue to provide excellent opportunities for our people, whilst considering growth and development. Our RSES must also play a strategic role in urban and rural design and protection of our natural and built heritage – protecting the region’s unique sense of place. MITIGATING RISK AND CHALLENGES Our region is different from the other two regions of Ireland, with historically lower levels of urbanisation, proximity to the border and risks posed by Brexit. The national risk landscape has seen some significant change with developments such as the pending departure of the UK from the European Union progressing and evolving, geopolitical stability, housing, infrastructure constraints and the implications of climate change adaptation. BREXIT The NPF acknowledges that Brexit has the potential to significantly change the nature of our relationships with our nearest neighbours. It also presents significant opportunities and challenges that are not fully understood and will be unknown for some time. As with the NPF, further iterations and reviews will present the opportunity to consider the practical ramifications of Brexit. With the extensive border between this region and Northern Ireland and because of the intricate interconnectivity of services, industry, communities and local economies, the RSES needs to be particularly cognisant of ‘risk’ associated with Brexit. Analysis and research have continued to improve our understanding of the trade and other risks for Ireland potentially arising from Brexit. Data published in a joint report by Derry City and Strabane District Council and Donegal County Council show that there are more than 326,000 journeys made per week across the Border crossings at Derry/ Bridgend, Muff village to Derry and between Strabane and Lifford.Northern & Western Regional Assembly 25 2 Strategic Vision

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   Clearly, some sectors and this region will be harder hit than others. While 13% of total Irish goods exports (€15bn) and 16% of total Irish service exports (€22bn) went to the UK in 2016, for certain sectors and sub-sectors, the figures were much higher. For example, in the agri-food sector, 37% of Irish food and drink exports went to the UK in 2016, and within that sector, exports to the UK accounted for 50% of beef exports, 56% of pig meat exports and 53% of cheese exports. In addition to trading difficulties, the Irish fisheries sector also faces very significant difficulties in the context of the potential loss of access to UK waters and loss of quota share. 34% of all fish landings by Irish vessels are currently taken from what could become UK waters. The OECD estimates that a ‘Hard BREXIT’ with trade governed by WTO rules could reduce exports by 20% in some sectors such as agriculture and food. Research commissioned by the Department of Business, Enterprise and Innovation found that while the Irish economy is expected to grow out to 2030, Brexit produces a dampening effect in all scenarios. GEOPOLITICAL STABILITY For the Northern and Western Region, developments in US trade policy, in particular, an increased emphasis on protectionist policies, and the growing threat of a global trade war, have given rise to a further intensification of risks around geopolitical stability. As the US is Ireland’s largest trading partner and export market outside the EU, the risks for the Irish economy are therefore significant. HOUSING Housing continues to present a significant challenge for Ireland, both in terms of meeting the current demand, as well as a growing concern around the affordability of housing, in particular in Galway City, Sligo, Letterkenny and Athlone. There are social risks, as well as economic implications for this region’s competitiveness and ability to attract foreign direct investment (FDI).Regional Spatial and Economic Strategy 2020-2032 26 2 Strategic Vision

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   INFRASTRUCTURE Similarly, risks around infrastructure constraints persist and could impede the Northern and Western Region’s ability to attract labour and investment. A range of international benchmarks is available comparing the stock and quality of infrastructure in Ireland with competitors. Ireland’s diminished investment is evident in declining and low scores concerning the perception of overall infrastructure quality, with Ireland’s score falling over the five years to 2016. CLIMATE CHANGE A key issue for the strategy is how climate change will impact on land-use change and increasing demands on natural resources into the future. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that there is now “unequivocal” evidence of climate change. There is marked evidence that Ireland’s climate is changing with projections for Ireland indicating that there is a likelihood of a rise in sea levels, changes in rainfall events, increased frequency of storm events, changes to air and soil temperate and periods of increased drought. These events will directly impact on urban, terrestrial and aquatic systems and the lands’ abilities to deal with the potentially extreme weather events and other pressures. Due to the likelihood of such extreme events Ireland is required to address adaptation to manage risks posed by climate change. The National Policy Position on Climate Action sets a fundamental national objective to achieve the transition to a competitive, low-carbon, climateresilient and environmentally sustainable economy by 2050. With the establishment of the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2015, there is now a statutory basis on which National Climate Change Adaptation Frameworks and Sectoral Adaptation Plans are to be established.Northern & Western Regional Assembly 27 2 Strategic Vision

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   The National Climate Change Adaptation Framework was published in 2018 and includes the national strategy to reduce the vulnerability of the country to the negative effects of climate change and to avail of positive impacts. The policies and measures developed by the Adaptation Framework are likely to focus on infrastructural measures which have the potential to impact on land-use changes which has specific relevance for the RSES. Also, a National Climate Mitigation Plan has been prepared which contains specific measures to mitigate the effects of climate change across the transport, energy, built environment and agriculture sectors. VIEW PDF AT: ! https://www.nwra.ie/wp-content/ uploads/2020/05/national-adaptationframework.pdf Climate change commitments and ever more demanding EU targets mean that power generation, transport and heat increasingly have to be produced from sustainably produced electricity. As an EU member state, as well as a signatory to the UN Paris Agreement, Ireland has committed itself to a reduction of greenhouse gases along with a multitude of other sustainability-related measures. While the majority of direction will come from national government, responsibility will also fall on the NWRA as well as our constituent local authorities (Climate Change Adaption Strategies) to ensure that targets are being met. How we produce our energy is going to play a major role in determining how successful the country is in tackling climate change targets, especially GHG emissions. The Northern and Western Regional Assembly needs to strategically prepare for locally-based energy networks enabling locally produced electricity connection to the grid and flexible energy consumption. There are significant risks for Ireland in terms of failing to implement appropriate policies and provide the long-term pricing signals to encourage investment and behavioural change. There are also significant opportunities for this region through resource efficiency and the commercial application of technology to existing and emerging energy generation sources.Regional Spatial and Economic Strategy 2020-2032 28 2 Strategic Vision

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   DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY The pace of technological developments means that this is a risk category which needs to be monitored closely. Disruptive technology trends are continuously bringing new ways of conducting business, manufacturing products and making decisions which could usurp traditional methods and lead to significant job losses in affected sectors. While there are also significant spatial considerations for the distribution and integration of new technologies for effective land-use planning; ensuring our ‘Places’, both private and public are fully equipped for a smart, modern and connected future. While no sector will be immune to the impact of disruptive technology, jobs and functions that require greater degrees of cognition, subjective thought and personal interaction will be somewhat cushioned. The acquisition of new skills is vital to keep pace with advances in technology. Similarly, the availability of the right skills is a key enabler of enterprise performance and growth. The region will need to ensure the strategic alignment between national sectoral strategy on education, training, innovation and skills is responding to the placebased demand evident in our Regional Skills Fora and initiatives like the Regional Enterprise Plan. The development and implementation of a smart specialisation strategy is one way of enabling this to be realised. COMPETITIVENESS The region also has several historical challenges impacting on its competitiveness and sustainability. Most notably the comparably lower level of investment in enabling infrastructures such as ports, harbours, roads, rail and utilities. The resulting impact has created a profile of a region addressing matters such as: g Distance and Scale g Skills retention and development g Generating Greater Value from Our Knowledge and Innovation System g Access to Capital to Fund Innovation g Infrastructure and Accessibility g Perception of this region and associated narrative moving towards a green environment.Northern & Western Regional Assembly 29 2 Strategic Vision

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    EVIDENCE FOR POSITIVE DISCRIMINATION: REVERSE DECLINE It has been well documented that the NWRA falls behind many other regions in terms of economic performance. With the exception of the 2011-2012 period when Gross Value Added (GVA) in the region grew more rapidly than any other region in Ireland, it has since fallen back and the gap between it and the remaining regions is widening. In addition, when the latest set of regional GDP statistics are analysed for 2016, they illustrate a rise in regional disparity (See Figure 15). This is contributing to a growing body of evidence supporting a strong ‘place-based’ approach matched with Government support and ‘positive discrimination’ for investment to this region. The reduction in this regions GVA means that the region is now classified by the EU as being a ‘Transition Region’ for the EU Post 2020 (2021-2027) funding period, thus it has moved back from a “More Developed Region” to a “Transition Region”. Whilst this is of concern, it also presents an opportunity to avail of the ‘positive discrimination’ provided by the European Structural Funds towards regions that are not within the “More Developed” category, as they are designed to counter any imbalance among regions. This means that the region will qualify for greater EU support. It means that the region will qualify for more flexible funding opportunities, better financing rates and greater funding levels Post 2020 to use EU Structural funds as a means to “Positively Discriminate” to help develop our region, as a Smart, Green, Connected Region of the future. Figure 15: Greater Value Added 2005-2016 €0 €10,000 €20,000 €30,000 €40,000 €50,000 €60,000 €70,000 €80,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Northern and Western Southern Eastern and MidlandRegional Spatial and Economic Strategy 2020-2032 30 2 Strategic Vision

Source Northern and Western Regional Assembly: Regional Spatial and Economic Strategy 2020–2032 (January 2020) · Licence the publisher's termsText read from the publisher’s PDF; tables, maps and drawings do not survive as text, and page numbers are the PDF’s (its first page is 1). Check the original before relying on a passage.