South Dublin County Development Plan 2022–2028 – Written Statement

1. Page 41

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   SOUTH DUBLIN COUNTY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2022-202838Core Strategy and Settlement Strategy (CS) persons over a ten-year period. However, despite this general growth, there was an overall decline in rural population between 2011 and 2016. This trend follows national and international movement of people from rural to urban areas. The accompanying Housing Strategy and Interim Housing Needs Demand Assessment (HNDA) set out under Appendix 11 has examined the demographic changes and age profile of the County up to 2028, informing housing need. Table 2: South Dublin County Urban, Rural and Settlement Populations (2006-2016)34 Settlement / Area 2006 2011 2016 2016 % share of County 06 - 16 Change (No.) 06-16 Change (%) South Dublin County3 246,935 265,205 278,767 100% +31,832 +12.9% Urban 240,607 259,729 273,215 98.01% +32,608 +13.6% Dublin City and Suburbs4 235,306 251,505 262,638 94.21% +27,332 +11.6% Saggart 868 2,144 3,133 1.12% +2,265 +260.9% Rathcoole 2,927 3,421 4,351 1.56% +1,424 +48.7% Newcastle 1,506 2,659 3,093 1.10% +1,587 +105.4% Rural 6,328 5,476 5,552 1.99% -776 -12.3% 2.5.2 Population – Projections The RSES, guided by the National Planning Framework Implementation Roadmap (the Roadmap), has set low and high population projections for the region up to 2026 and 2031. This is broken down for each Local Authority and for South Dublin County; the high population target has been chosen for the Development Plan period. Table 3: South Dublin – RSES Population Projection 2016-2031 2016 2026 2031 Low High Low High South Dublin County 278,767 308,000 314,000 320,500 329,000 Change (No.) from 2016 - +29,233 +35,233 +41,733 +50,233 Change (%) from 2016 - +10.49% +12.64% +14.97% +18.02% The Roadmap provides scope to South Dublin County to bring forward the 2031 population figures by up to 25% by 2026. In terms of ‘Headroom’, the Roadmap indicates that an additional 50% growth is already accounted for in the National population targets up to 2026. Thus, the application of 50% growth beyond the Plan period is already accounted for in the targets. 3 Urban / Town Area: Towns with a settlement boundary with a total population of 1,500 + persons. 4 Dublin City and Suburbs area – See Appendix 2B for further detail.

2. Page 42

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   SOUTH DUBLIN COUNTY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2022-202839Core Strategy and Settlement Strategy (CS) Translating the high RSES projection figures, including the frontloading up to 2026, population projections for the Development Plan period to 2028 is shown under Table 4. The remaining 2026 to 2028 figure was calculated on the basis of a pro rata average year (2 year) of the remaining balance between 2026 and 2031. Table 4: 2022-2028 Population Projections - Adjusted 2016 2026 2028 Low High Low High South Dublin County Council 278,767 315,308 322,808 317,385 323,769 Change (No.) from 2016 - +36,541 +44,041 +38,618 +45,002 Change (%) from 2016 - +13.1% +15.8% +13.8% +16.7% Average Annual Pop growth (2016-2028) - +3,654 +4,404 +3,218 +3,877 The population projections for the County over the plan period 2022-2028 have been applied in accordance with the RSES which has been guided by the National Planning Framework Implementation Roadmap. The Roadmap acknowledges the transition of implementing Development Plans and provides scope to bring forward population figures of +25% up to 2026. This simply allows the 2031 targets to be front loaded, it does not provide for the exceedance of the 2031 high figure. The Roadmap outlines South Dublin as a County where this adjustment can be applied. The 2022-2028 Development Plan has applied this population adjustment in light of strong construction activity, completed residential units since 2016 and the continued demand for housing within the County. 2.5.3 South Dublin County Housing - Baseline In 2016, there were 98,387 residential units within South Dublin County. Of this figure, 3,495 units were vacant representing 3.6%. While new housing units accounted for just 1,089 units between 2011 and 2016, a reduction of vacant units (1,730 units) increased the active housing stock by 2,819 units. This rate of vacancy falls on the lower side of the range of 2.5% to 6%5 which is considered to be normal in a properly functioning housing market. Table 5: South Dublin County Housing Stock (2002-2016) Year Total Housing Stock Vacant (%) Change (No.) Change (%) 2002 76,666 2,146 (2.8%) - - 2006 87,484 5,424 (6.2%) +10,818 +14.1% 2011 97,298 5,225 (5.4%) +9,814 +11.2% 2016 98,387 3,495 (3.6%) +1,089 +1.12% 2002-2016 - +1,349 +21,721 +28.3% 5 Page 15 of the National Vacant Housing Reuse Strategy 2018-2021, available at: https://www.housing. gov.ie/sites/default/files/publications/files/national_vacant_housing_reuse_strategy_0.pdf

3. Page 43

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   SOUTH DUBLIN COUNTY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2022-202840Core Strategy and Settlement Strategy (CS) Table 6 illustrates the growth in housing and vacancy levels between 2011-2016 within the different settlement areas. In the five years 2011-2016, 4,549 units were newly occupied either through occupation of previously vacant houses or new build. Of the new housing stock, 86% was located within Dublin City and Suburbs, followed by 8% in Rathcoole 4.5% in Saggart and 1.5% in Newcastle. It is noted that Saggart’s housing stock increased by 51% between 2011 and 2016 because of reduced vacancy. Table 6: South Dublin County Housing and Vacancy (2011-2016) Type 2011 2016 2011-2016 - Change (No.) 2011-2016 - Change (%) Units Vacant Units Vacant Units Vacant Units Vacant County 92,073 5,225 (5.7%) 94,892 3,495 (3.7%) +2,819 -1,730 +3.1% -33.1% Total Urban 90,483 5,016 (5.5%) 93,270 3,328 (3.6%) +2,787 -1,688 +3.1% -32.7% Dublin City and Suburbs 86,695 4,49 (5.2%) 89,125 3,033 (3.4%) +2,430 -1,462 +2.8% -32.5% Saggart 1,167 282 (24.2%) 1,294 152 (11.8%) +127 -130 +10.9% -46.1% Rathcoole 1,456 111 (7.6%) 1,679 80 (4.8%) +223 -31 +15.3% -27.9% Newcastle 1,165 128 (11%) 1,172 63 (5.4%) +7 -65 +0.6% -50.8% Rural 1,590 209 (13.1%) 1,622 167 (10.3%) +32 -42 2% -20.1% 2.5.4 Planning and Construction Activity The monitoring of construction and planning activity is an invaluable tool to ensure a clear understanding of housing delivery and the type of planning permission and commencements at different locations across the County. There are a number of data sources in relation to housing activity available. Principal sources used are; SDCC figures supplied to the Housing Supply Coordination Taskforce (HTF), the Building Control Management System (BCMS) commencements and the Central Statistics Office (CSO). The Housing Taskforce (HTF) tracks the quantum of residential development for 10 or more units in the four Dublin Local Authorities on a quarterly basis, since 2016. It provides detailed insight into planning and construction activity in the residential sector and the inter-relationship between same. The Central Statistics Office (CSO) quarterly reports monitor housing completions. The information is also broken up by Eircode for spatial locations and for each Local Authority. As required under the Housing Supply Guidelines discussed below, the CSO data forms the benchmark for constructed units and guides the formation of this Core Strategy. Figure 5 illustrates how completed units have increased between

4. Page 44

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   SOUTH DUBLIN COUNTY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2022-202841Core Strategy and Settlement Strategy (CS) 2017 and Q3 2021 with 6,554 units constructed over that period. Between 2017 and Q3 2021 inclusive, as construction activity recovered after the economic crash, an average of 1,311 units were completed a year. The years 2018-2020 as development picked up before the impact of Covid, reached an average of 1,644 units a year. Figure 5: Constructed Units in SDCC and Cumulative Total 2011 – Q3 2021, Source: CSO, NDQ06 In Quarter 3 of 2021, there was planning permission in SDCC for 12,445 units which were either under construction or permitted and not commenced across normal (99 units and less) and Strategic Housing Development applications (more than 99 units). Strategic Housing Developments (SHDs) comprise a total of 66% of the total units with permission. A significant quantum was granted since Q4 2019 with the final SHDs still in the process at the same time as large scale residential development (LSRD) commences in its place. In terms of deliverability, between commencement of the SHD process in 2017 and Q3 2021, 23% of the permitted SHD units have either commenced construction or have been built. Delivery of these 100 plus unit developments in South Dublin County has generally occurred along the periphery of the County (Citywest / Fortunestown) and established areas (Rathfarnham) but not in the regeneration lands which account for 30% of all SHDs permitted in the County. The deliverability of SHDs / LRDs, especially within key growth areas, will form part of the Core Strategy monitoring process. Figure 6 illustrates the historical trend of planning permissions since 2016 up to Q3 2021. The graph shows how SHDs have increased the total quantum of planning permissions within the County.

5. Page 45

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   SOUTH DUBLIN COUNTY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2022-202842Core Strategy and Settlement Strategy (CS) Figure 6: Quantum of Planning Permissions (Units) within South Dublin (Source: HTF Series 2016 – Q3 2021) Figure 7 below illustrates the number of sites with extant planning permission and of these, the quantum which are under construction per quarter since 2016 in South Dublin. The average trend indicates that less than half (circa 46%) of all sites with planning have commenced development. This could reflect a range of factors including market forces, permission sought to increase land value for re-sale, issues with sourcing the appropriate level of funding to commence construction, capacity of construction industry, and so on. While COVID-19 has influenced this gap in terms of commencements and the gap remains significant, there are signs of a slight increase in commencements towards mid 2021. This will continue to be monitored. Figure 7: Construction Activity of Residential Sites in South Dublin County (Source: HTF Series 2016 – Q3 2021) Based on these trends, it can be assumed that South Dublin County will have, on an

6. Page 46

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   SOUTH DUBLIN COUNTY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2022-202843Core Strategy and Settlement Strategy (CS) ongoing basis, a quantum of sites that are suitable for residential development and that have the benefit of planning permission, which may not be brought forward for development within the lifetime of the Plan, or sites which may not come forward for planning at all. 2.5.5 Housing Supply Targets The Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage issued Section 28 Guidelines titled: “Housing Supply Target Methodology for Development Planning”, December 2020 (‘the Supply Guidelines’) to assist in providing Planning Authorities with the figures and methodology to incorporate national and regional population and housing projections into their statutory functions. The Supply Guidelines, informed by research carried out by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), outline that of the three options put forward by ESRI in their projections; the option to be used by local authorities in their Core Strategy is the NPF 50:50 City scenario. Table 7 shows the overall target for housing for South Dublin County for the Development Plan period. Table 7: South Dublin Housing Demand Figures 2022-2028* South Dublin County Council Annual Average Total Households A ESRI NPF scenario projected new household demand 2017 to 2028 1,806 21,680 B Actual new housing supply 2017-end of Q3 2022 1,432 8,154 C Homeless households**, and estimated unmet demand as of Census 2016 N/A 2,050 D Housing Demand Q3 2022 – Q3 - 2028 = Total (A-(B-C)) / 6yrs 2,613 15,576 *Methodology based on Housing Supply Guidelines issued by Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage ** Homeless figure as per the ESRI data and has not increased to date. As outlined in Figure 5, South Dublin County’s annual rate of construction between 2017 and Q3 2021 inclusive was on average 1,310. However, this was below the overall average demand for the County for 2017-2031 of 1,832 units a year set out by the ESRI in ‘Projected Housing Demand by Local Authority Area 2020-2031, ESRI NPF Scenario Housing Supply Target’. The shortfall, as result, has been carried forward into the years leading up to and the lifetime of the Development Plan period up to 2028 requiring on average 2,613 housing units a year. The required housing figures, in the context of the NPF 50:50 scenario and units completed is outlined in Figure 8. The specific calculations and methodologies in arriving at the above figures, in line with the Ministerial Guidelines, is set out under Appendix 2B.

7. Page 47

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   SOUTH DUBLIN COUNTY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2022-202844Core Strategy and Settlement Strategy (CS) Figure 8: South Dublin County Council – Average Annual Housing Supply Requirement up to 2028. *CSO figures for the County indicate that 640 units have been constructed between Q1 and Q3 2021. **It is estimated that a further 1600 units will be delivered between Q3 2021 and Q3 2022 when the plan comes into effect. 2.5.6 Development Plan Population and Housing Requirements Based on the population targets and housing need set out within National and Regional planning policy, the Development Plan must accommodate an additional: 45,002 persons up to a target population of 323,769 in 2028 15,576 housing units between 2022 and 2028 In doing so, the housing need, which accounts for the current under supply amounts to: The combination of the additional housing units required alongside the population growth indicates an anticipated reduction in average household size for the overall County. By 2028, with a total population of 323,769 persons and a total housing stock of 118,632 houses, the household size will be an average of 2.73 per house. This is a reduction from 2.99 in 2016 and is consistent with the downward national trend of household size, from 2.75 in 2016 to 2.5 in 2040, outlined in the National Planning Framework. It is noted that there is variation above and below the household size depending on the typologies of extant planning permission, as well as demographic and household composition in each neighbourhood area whether urban or rural. This average household size has informed the population distribution as part of the Settlement Strategy, informed by the Core Strategy, as set out in the next section.

8. Page 48

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   SOUTH DUBLIN COUNTY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2022-202845Core Strategy and Settlement Strategy (CS) 2.6 Core Strategy This Section of the Chapter sets out the following elements that comprised the preparation of the Core Strategy: à Land capacity - available land for development à The Planning, Infrastructure and Deliverability of available land; and à Proposed land for the Development Plan period. This Core Strategy section has been prepared in the Context of Sections: 2.3 (Statutory Context), 2.4 (National, Regional and Ministerial Planning Policy), and 2.5 (Population and Housing data) of this Chapter. 4. Deliverability Analysis 3. Planning Assessment 2. Infrastructure Assessment 1. Land Capacity Study 2.6.1 Land Capacity Study The Development Plan is tasked with ensuring that sufficient and suitable land is zoned for residential use, or for a mixture of residential and other uses, to meet the requirements of the projected population and to ensure that a scarcity of such land does not occur at any time during the period of the Development Plan. A Land Capacity analysis was carried out by the Planning Department to calculate the potential yield of undeveloped land (RES, RES-N, TC, REGEN, VC, DC, LC and SDZ) zoned in the 2016-2022 County Development Plan. The capacity figure has been prepared in the context of Section 28 Ministerial Guidelines promoting higher densities, especially near existing and proposed public transport services as set out in the ‘Sustainable Residential Development in Urban Areas’ (2009), ‘Sustainable Urban Housing: Design Standards for New Apartments’ Guidelines (2020) (the ‘Apartment Guidelines’) and ‘Urban Development and Building Heights Guidelines for Planning Authorities’ (2018). The potential yield of undeveloped lands excludes units built and 1600 units estimated to be built between Q3 2021 and Q3 2022 since the previous capacity audit in 2015. Since then, 6,554 units have been built. These figures form part of the Core Strategy Table 11 and formation of the Settlement Strategy discussed further in this Chapter. Therefore, the total land capacity including long term development land within the County is 990 hectares with capacity to accommodate: 42,570 residential units. This equates to an average of 43 units per hectare. Excluding those lands identified for strategic long-term development within SDZs and major regeneration sites, outside the Development Plan period (see below)

9. Page 49

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   SOUTH DUBLIN COUNTY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2022-202846Core Strategy and Settlement Strategy (CS) allowable under Ministerial Circular, 20106, the analysis estimates a potential for 21,490 units on 428 hectares of developable land within the lifetime of the Development Plan period. This equates to an average yield of 50 units per hectare. Zoned land with extant permission not commenced (estimated 8,234 units Q3 2021) has been recognised and factored into the Core Strategy figure. In considering such extant permissions a deliverability analysis has also been carried out and has informed the development of the Core Strategy. The potential yield of undeveloped land in each settlement and neighbourhood area, identifying greenfield and brownfield lands, is contained within Table 9. Strategic Long Term Development Areas (SDAs) As indicated above, South Dublin County has strategic long term development potential within the Strategic Development Zones (SDZs) and zoned regeneration areas. The SDAs also include the Strategic Residential Reserve Lands. These areas provide a strategic quantum of development for South Dublin along existing and planned rail corridors which are identified as key residential and employment growth areas within the Metropolitan Area Strategic Plan. Table 8 below illustrates the overall unit capacity of these lands from 2022: Table 8: Total Land Capacity within Strategic Development Areas Settlement Strategic Development Zones (SDZs) Overall Unit Capacity from 2022 Total Land (Hectares) Brownfield Greenfield Dublin City and Suburbs (Within and Contiguous) Adamstown SDZ Planning Scheme 5,240 0 80 Clonburris SDZ Planning Scheme 7,730-11,098 0 252 City Edge lands * 267 13 Tallaght Local Area Plan (Regen Lands) 8,400 - 11,144 108 0 Sub-Totals of SDAs - 375 (51%) 345 (49%) Rathcoole West Rathcoole Strategic Residential Reserve 70-80 2 Totals 21,440 - 27,562 722 * Final figure will be subject to the City Edge Local Area Plan / statutory plan. Significant areas of these lands have been excluded from the land capacity over the Development Plan period except where it is considered a percentage of development can occur within that timeframe. Of the total capacity for the SDA lands, approximately 150 ha providing for more than 7,500 units has been identified as 6 The Guidance Note on Core Strategies, DECLG (2010) outlines that “any excess (of lands or housing capacity) will not normally include lands identified for strategic long-term development as part of Strategic Development Zones or major regeneration sites within key areas”.

10. Page 50

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    SOUTH DUBLIN COUNTY DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2022-202847Core Strategy and Settlement Strategy (CS) being deliverable over the Development Plan period and is included in the land capacity figures in Table 9. This figure for SDA lands is informed by an understanding of the pipeline and potential for housing delivery on Council owned lands, historical trends of housing delivery on SDA lands within South Dublin and by delivery of similarly designated sites within the region. It is recognised that a wide range of elements can influence the deliverability of strategic long term development areas, including market viability, site assembly, public / private funding streams, timelines and funding for delivering physical infrastructure, and pressure for piecemeal sites coming forward. Having regard to the numerous variants, the need for developing a plan-led approach to these strategic lands is critical to their successful growth in a manner which contributes towards Quality Design and Healthy Placemaking in line with the provisions of Chapter 5 of this plan. In this regard, SDZ schemes are in place for Adamstown and Clonburris. Tallaght Town Centre is subject to a Local Area Plan adopted in 2020. The City Edge lands form a significant landbank within both South Dublin and Dublin City Council. The development of the City Edge lands, as noted under the RSES, is a medium to long-term infrastructure sequence with potential for residential development and more intensive employment / mixed uses. The development of this area requires significant investment and site assembly to enable the full development potential and will be subject to a Statutory Plan in collaboration with Dublin City Council, which will be informed by a Strategic Framework. The full build out of these lands will take time, and ensuring it is plan-led is central to the successful development of the County and the wider region. Policy CS1: Strategic Development Areas Prioritise housing and employment growth within the identified residential and employment growth areas set out under the Metropolitan Area Strategic Plan. CS1 Objective 1: To ensure a sustainable and plan led allocation of housing and employment growth within the strategic development areas of South Dublin County in line with the provisions of the MASP. CS1 Objective 2: To support continued collaboration between infrastructure providers, state agencies and local authorities to inform cross sectoral investment plans and capital spending plans to accelerate the development of strategic development areas and secure the best use of public lands in the Dublin Metropolitan Area – consistent with RPO 5.1. CS1 Objective 3: To seek funding from appropriate sources, including central government funding mechanisms, to secure the delivery of National Strategic Outcomes for the strategic development areas under the National Planning Framework.

Source South Dublin County Council: South Dublin County Development Plan 2022–2028 – Written Statement (2022–2028) · Licence the publisher's termsText read from the publisher’s PDF; tables, maps and drawings do not survive as text, and page numbers are the PDF’s (its first page is 1). Check the original before relying on a passage.