Westmeath County Development Plan 2021–2027

1. Page 521

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   Appendix 1 Housing Strategy v Westmeath County Development Plan 2021-2027 population as 48.54% and 51.46% respectively. Thus, Westmeath is becoming more urban in nature as a whole. The population growth in Westmeath for rural and urban areas from 2006 to 2011 was 6.2% and 11.2% respectively. Between 2011 and 2016, rural areas grew by 8.1%, while urban areas (i.e. Athlone, Mullingar, Kinnegad and Moate) grew by 14.2%. In 2016 the age profile of the EMRA region is young with nearly half a million children or 1 in 5 people (22%) in the Region that are aged under 14 years of age. In Westmeath this figure is broadly similar, standing at 21%. However, as with the state, both the EMRA region and county of Westmeath are ageing. As the RSES notes, by 2031 there will be a significant increase in the regional population aged over 65 and as such, there is a need to plan for adequate healthcare, accommodation and services to enable independent living for as long as possible, encourage active lifestyles and address isolation for older residents. Table 2: Age Dependency Ratios (2016) 0-14 years 15-64 years Over 65 years Young Age Ratio (%) Old Age Ratio (%) Total Dependency Ratio (%) 19,775 57,625 11,370 22.2 12.8 35 2.2 Existing Housing 2.2.1 Housing Stock and Supply Stock and Composition Census 2016 results record a total housing stock of 36,890 in Westmeath, an increase of just 231 on 2011 levels. In that time, the rate of vacant housing has fallen from 13.4% to 10.9%. This indicates the existing vacant stock is absorbing much of the growing need for housing in the county. Census 2016 data shows that there were 3,728 vacant units (this figure excludes vacant holiday homes) in the county in 2016. Vacancy rates in existing residential properties across the county are set out in Table 3. This distinguishes between vacant residential properties and holiday homes. The percentage vacancy rate provided is based on the ‘Other Vacancy’ category as a percentage of total housing stock and excludes vacant holiday homes. A summary of the information on the existing housing stock is provided in Table 3. Table 3: Existing Housing Stock (2016) Household size cohort represents the number of people per households. More than half of households in Westmeath in 2016 had just one or two persons living in that household as illustrated Table 4, however this generally compares to the national figures on household size cohorts. 1 The percentage vacancy rate provided is based on ‘Other Vacancy’ category as a percentage of total housing stock and excludes vacant holiday homes and those temporarily absent. County Housing stock Holiday homes Other vacant Temporarily Absent Total vacancy % Vacancy1 Westmeath 36,890 281 3728 1,023 3728 10.9%

2. Page 522

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   Appendix 1 Housing Strategy vi Westmeath County Development Plan 2021-2027 Table 4: Existing Household Size Cohorts (2016) No. People per Household Households Persons Households % Persons % 1-person household 7,482 7,482 23.5% 8.5% 2-person household 8,904 17,808 28.0% 20.3% 3-person household 5,703 17,109 17.9% 19.5% 4-person household 5,291 21,164 16.6% 24.1% 5+ person household 4,433 24,324 13.9% 27.7% Total 31,813 87,887 100.0% 100.0% Compositionally, there were 31,813 households and an average household size of 2.76, which is marginally higher than the national rate of 2.75. 89.9% of households comprised of a house or bungalow while 8.5% were apartments in 2016. At a national level, 12% of all occupied households in Ireland were apartments. The NPF notes that while the overall proportion of households living in apartments is growing, we remain considerably behind European averages in terms of the numbers and proportion of households living in apartments, especially in our cities and larger towns. As such, the NPF states that apartments will need to become a more prevalent form of housing, particularly in Ireland’s cities in order to more effectively address the challenge of meeting the housing needs of a growing population in our key urban areas. Housing Tenure Home ownership remains the dominant tenure in Westmeath with 69.2% of households within this category in 2016. 47% of households pay a mortgage.18.7% of households were in the private rental market; an increase of 151%, or 3,565 households since 2006. 8.0% (2,545) of households in the county were social housing. Table 5: Housing Tenure (2016) Households Persons Households % Persons % Social Housing 2,545 7,231 8.0% 8.3% Rented (Privately) 5,928 15625 18.7% 17.8% Owner Occupied (All) 21,915 61727 69.2% 70.5%

3. Page 523

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   Appendix 1 Housing Strategy vii Westmeath County Development Plan 2021-2027 Table 6: Household Occupancy in County Westmeath (2016) County Westmeath Owner occupied with mortgage Owner occupied no mortgage Rented from private landlord Rented from Local Authority Rented from voluntary body Occupied free of rent Not stated Total (No. households) 10,325 11,590 5,928 2,404 141 498 799 31,685 2.2.2 Unfinished Housing Developments The 2017 National Housing Development Survey which tracks progress on unfinished housing developments since 2010 indicated that there are no unfinished developments in Westmeath. The report notes that in 2017 Westmeath resolved all ‘unfinished’ issues on estates. 2.2.3 Housing Permissions Table 7 illustrates the number of granted planning applications in County Westmeath between 2006 and Q2 2019. 85% of these relate to houses and apartments while 15% relate to single one-off dwellings. 2.2.4 Social Housing Stock In accordance with Section 9 of the Housing Act 1988, housing authorities are required to undertake an assessment of housing need in their administrative area. The social housing stock of Westmeath County Council as of December 2019 is as follows: • 2,100 directly owned, • 873 on RAS or Leasing program, • 907 active HAP tenancies, • AHBs own 79 properties which have a total of 141 separate units of accommodation.

4. Page 524

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   Appendix 1 Housing Strategy viii Table 7: Granted Planning Applications in County Westmeath during 2006 and Quarter 2 2019 Granted Applications 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q2 2019 Houses and Apartments 3110 2001 3022 578 175 308 363 97 65 354 293 322 350 138 One Off Houses 424 437 311 161 87 95 79 56 61 53 50 61 66 78 Houses and Apartments % of Total 88% 82% 91% 78% 67% 76% 82% 63% 52% 87% 85% 84% 84% 64% One Off Houses % of Total 12% 18% 9% 22% 33% 24% 18% 37% 48% 13% 15% 16% 16% 36% Total Number 3534 2438 3333 739 262 403 442 153 126 407 343 383 416 216

5. Page 525

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   Appendix 1 Housing Strategy ix 3 Housing Needs in Westmeath 3.1 Determination of Annual Population Projections Purpose: This is the determination of annual population projection scenario over the plan period. A number of population scenarios for the county have been investigated to 2031 (As outlined in Section 2.8.1 of the Core Strategy). The proportional intervention (Pi) scenario, referred to as ‘Proportional Intervention Scenario C’ was selected and applied to establish the population projections over the plan period2. The projected population growth over the plan period is outlined in Table 8. Table 8: Projected Population Growth Year Population - Total Percentage Increase Annual Population Increase During Year Total Population Increase 2021- 2027 Total Population Increase 2016- 2027 2006 79,346 - - - - 2011 86,164 8.6% - - - 2016 88,770 3.0% - - - 2017 90,735 2.2% 1,965 - - 2018 92,232 1.6% 1,497 - - 2019 93,730 1.6% 1,498 - - 2020 95,227 1.6% 1,497 - - 2021 96,725 1.6% 1,498 - - 2022 98,223 1.5% 1,498 - - 2023 99,720 1.5% 1,497 - - 2024 101,218 1.5% 1,498 - - 2025 102,715 1.5% 1,497 - - 2026 104,213 1.5% 1,498 - - 2027 105,710 1.4% 1,497 10,483 16,940 2028 107,208 1.4% 1,498 2029 108,705 1.4% 1,497 2030 110,203 1.4% 1,498 2031 111,044 0.8% 841 - - 2 A series of population scenarios were explored ranging from a purely demographic outlook (‘Non Intervention’) to various intervention scenarios, more closely aligned with NPF policy-based targets. For comparison, under the ‘Non-Intervention’ scenario, the population is projected to increase by a slightly higher amount; 10,717 during the plan period.

6. Page 526

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   Appendix 1 Housing Strategy x Westmeath County Development Plan 2021-2027 3.2 Determination of Average Household Size and Additional Households Required Purpose: This is the determination of annual household increase based on the application of an average household size for the projected population. The Census 2016 results indicate that Westmeath has a population to household ratio of 2.76, marginally higher than the state average of 2.75. However, the NPF states that this is expected to decline to around 2.5 by 2040, while also acknowledging that household sizes in urban areas tend to be smaller than in the suburbs or rural parts of the country. In line with this projected trend, a graduated average household size is utilised within this plan to 2040. As shown in Table 9, the average household size is thus projected to be 2.64 at the end of the plan period. By applying the relevant household size to projected population increases, it is possible to forecast required household numbers to the end of the plan period (i.e. 2027). As summarised in Table 9, the number of households in County Westmeath is expected to increase from 31,813 in 2016. This will increase by 4,983 houses during the plan period, equating to a total of 40,008 in 2027, or the equivalent of a per annum average of 712 units. Table 9: Projected Housing Requirements Year Population – Total Number of Households (Private) Average Household Size No. Anticipated Houses Per Annum Total Anticipated Houses between 2021- 2027 Average Anticipated Houses Per Annum between 2021-2027 2006 79,346 - - - - - 2011 86,164 - - - - - 2016 88,770 31,813 2.76 - - - 2017 90,735 32,975 2.751671 1,162 - 2018 92,232 33,652 2.74 678 - - 2019 93,730 34,336 2.73 684 - - 2020 95,227 35,025 2.72 689 - - 2021 96,725 35,720 2.71 695 - - 2022 98,223 36,420 2.70 700 - - 2023 99,720 37,126 2.69 706 - - 2024 101,218 37,837 2.68 712 - - 2025 102,715 38,555 2.66 717 - - 2026 104,213 39,278 2.65 724 - - 2027 105,710 40,008 2.64 729 4,983 712 2028 107,208 40,743 2.63 736 - - 2029 108,705 41,485 2.62 741 - - 2030 110,203 42,233 2.61 748 - - 2031 111,044 42,734 2.60 501 - -

7. Page 527

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   Appendix 1 Housing Strategy xi Westmeath County Development Plan 2021-2027 3.3 Calculation of Estimated Distribution of Household Disposable Incomes Purpose: This is the calculation of estimated distribution of household disposable incomes for each of the 10 household deciles in 2016. Disposable income is the amount of income, after tax is deducted, that is available for spending and saving. It functions as an important measure of housing affordability3 in an area i.e. the ability of a household to purchase their own home. This calculation has been based on the weekly and annualised disposable incomes at national level from the CSO’s Household Budget Survey (from 2015-2016) and the adjusted to county level based on application of “inflator/deflator” rate. A deflator4 of 0.893 has been therefore been applied to County Westmeath based on CSO report on County Incomes and Regional GDP from 2016 (i.e. the time of the survey). Table 10 illustrates the outputs of this exercise, with findings disaggregated into ten income segments or 'deciles' and applied to the proportion of households in Westmeath within each decile. It indicates that in 2017 after taxes, about one third5 of the households in Westmeath have an average annual disposable income of €21,980, or the equivalent of €422.70 per week. 3 Section 93 of the Planning and Development Act 2000, defines 'affordability' as "a person who is in need of accommodation and whose income would not be adequate to meet the payments of a mortgage for the purchase of a house to meet his or her accommodation needs because the payments calculated over the course of a year would exceed 35% of that person's annual income net of income tax and pay related social insurance..." 4 The measure of price inflation/deflation in an area, relative to the national measure at that time. 5 1st, 2nd and 3rd Deciles

8. Page 528

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   Appendix 1 Housing Strategy xii Table 10: Calculation of Distribution of Weekly and Annual Household Disposable Incomes Income Range Average Weekly Disposable Income (State) (€) (2009-2010) Average Weekly Disposable Income (State) (€) (2015-2016) Percentage Change from 2009-2010 to 2015-2016 Assumed Annual Percentage Income Increase from 2010 to 2016 Adjusted Average Weekly Disposable Income (State) (€) (2017) Percentage of Households in Each Category (State) Average Annual Disposable Income (State) (€) (2017) Westmeath County Deflator Westmeath Average Annual Disposable Income (€) (2017) Number of Households in Westmeath (2016) 1st Decile 188.91 197.40 4.5% 0.90% 199.17 9.83% 10,357.06 0.893 9,248.99 3,126 2nd Decile 300.98 324.40 7.8% 1.56% 329.45 10.57% 17,131.32 0.893 15,298.49 3,363 3rd Decile 431.28 465.86 8.0% 1.60% 473.33 10.47% 24,613.19 0.893 21,979.89 3,331 4th Decile 549.20 593.56 8.1% 1.62% 603.15 10.44% 31,363.73 0.893 28,008.21 3,321 5th Decile 669.46 725.85 8.4% 1.68% 738.08 10.25% 38,380.05 0.893 34,273.88 3,261 6th Decile 802.56 865.88 7.9% 1.58% 879.54 9.94% 45,736.24 0.893 40,843.06 3,163 7th Decile 972.03 1,026.46 5.6% 1.12% 1,037.96 9.62% 53,973.69 0.893 48,199.20 3,061 8th Decile 1,183.82 1,215.55 2.7% 0.54% 1,222.07 9.65% 63,547.44 0.893 56,748.68 3,070 9th Decile 1,472.66 1,473.25 0.0% 0.01% 1,473.37 9.61% 76,615.14 0.893 68,418.31 3,056 10th Decile 2,289.38 2,229.05 -2.6% -0.53% 2,217.30 9.62% 115,299.70 0.893 102,964.12 3,061 Total 5.0% 1.0% 100.00% 31,813

9. Page 529

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   Appendix 1 Housing Strategy xiii 3.4 Calculation of Average Annual Household Disposable Income Distribution Purpose: This is the calculation of estimated distribution of annual household disposable incomes for each of the 10 household deciles throughout the plan period. To inform the forward projection of future affordability in Westmeath, the baseline figures are then inflated annually using forecasted growth rates in relation to Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This has been based on the estimated distribution of household disposable incomes for 2016 from the CSO’s Household Budget Survey and historic and forecasted GDP growth rates during the plan period (from the Central Bank6, ESRI7 and European Union8). Based on the current economic outlook, GDP growth of 8.1%, 8.2% and 4.1% was considered during 2017, 2018 and 2019 respectively whilst 3.1% is expected during 2020 and 2021. As there are no forecasts on GDP growth available during the plan period, 2.9% GDP growth has been conservatively applied thereafter. The key outputs of this are shown in Table 11 which highlights a notable difference in average disposable incomes across the County for the 10 decile income ranges for each of the years during the plan period. Table 11: Calculation of Average Annual Household Disposable Income Distribution (€) Year 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 % Growth 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 1st Decile 11,074 11,395 11,725 12,065 12,415 12,775 13,146 2nd Decile 18,317 18,848 19,394 19,957 20,536 21,131 21,744 3rd Decile 26,316 27,079 27,865 28,673 29,504 30,360 31,240 4th Decile 33,534 34,506 35,507 36,536 37,596 38,686 39,808 5th Decile 41,035 42,225 43,450 44,710 46,007 47,341 48,714 6th Decile 48,901 50,319 51,778 53,279 54,825 56,414 58,050 7th Decile 57,708 59,381 61,103 62,875 64,699 66,575 68,506 8th Decile 67,944 69,914 71,942 74,028 76,175 78,384 80,657 9th Decile 81,916 84,291 86,736 89,251 91,839 94,503 97,243 10th Decile 123,277 126,852 130,530 134,316 138,211 142,219 146,344 6 Central Bank of Ireland (2019) Quarterly Bulletin: QB4 – October 2019 7 Economic & Social Research Institute (2019) Quarterly Economic Commentary: Autumn 2019 8 European Commission (2019) Winter 2019 Economic Forecast: Ireland's GDP forecast to grow by 4.1% in 2019. Available from: https://ec.europa.eu/ireland/news/winter-2019-economic-forecast-ireland-s-gdp-forecast-to-grow-by- 4.1-per-cent-in-2019_en

10. Page 530

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    Appendix 1 Housing Strategy xiv Westmeath County Development Plan 2021-2027 3.5 Calculation of Average Monthly Household Disposable Income Distribution Purpose: This is the calculation of estimated distribution of household units for each of the 10 household deciles throughout the plan period. This has been based on the same information Step 4 (Calculation of Average Annual Household Disposable Income Distribution) and scaled to provide the monthly (rather than annual) estimates of disposable income per household in each decile as described in Table 12. Table 12: Calculation of Average Monthly Household Disposable Income Distribution (€) Range % Households 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 1st Decile 9.83% 923 950 977 1,005 1,035 1,065 1,095 2nd Decile 10.57% 1,526 1,571 1,616 1,663 1,711 1,761 1,812 3rd Decile 10.47% 2,193 2,257 2,322 2,389 2,459 2,530 2,603 4th Decile 10.44% 2,794 2,876 2,959 3,045 3,133 3,224 3,317 5th Decile 10.25% 3,420 3,519 3,621 3,726 3,834 3,945 4,059 6th Decile 9.94% 4,075 4,193 4,315 4,440 4,569 4,701 4,838 7th Decile 9.62% 4,809 4,948 5,092 5,240 5,392 5,548 5,709 8th Decile 9.65% 5,662 5,826 5,995 6,169 6,348 6,532 6,721 9th Decile 9.61% 6,826 7,024 7,228 7,438 7,653 7,875 8,104 10th Decile 9.62% 10,273 10,571 10,878 11,193 11,518 11,852 12,195 3.6 Determination of Distribution of Total Households Purpose: This is the calculation of estimated distribution of total household units for each of the 10 household deciles throughout the plan period. This has been based on the outputs of Step 2 (Determination of Average Household Size and Additional Households Required) in relation to number of private households per year during the plan period as well as the distribution of housing units in the State from the Household Budget Survey9. Table 13 identifies the distribution of total households across each of the ten deciles during the plan period. Table 13: Determination of Distribution of Total Households per decile Range % Households 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 1st Decile 9.83% 3,510 3,579 3,648 3,718 3,788 3,859 3,931 2nd Decile 10.57% 3,776 3,850 3,925 4,000 4,076 4,152 4,229 3rd Decile 10.47% 3,740 3,813 3,887 3,961 4,036 4,112 4,189 4th Decile 10.44% 3,729 3,802 3,876 3,950 4,025 4,101 4,177 5th Decile 10.25% 3,661 3,733 3,805 3,878 3,952 4,026 4,101 6th Decile 9.94% 3,552 3,621 3,691 3,762 3,833 3,905 3,978 7th Decile 9.62% 3,437 3,504 3,572 3,640 3,709 3,779 3,849 8th Decile 9.65% 3,447 3,515 3,583 3,652 3,721 3,791 3,861 9th Decile 9.61% 3,431 3,499 3,567 3,635 3,704 3,773 3,843 10th Decile 9.62% 3,437 3,504 3,572 3,640 3,709 3,779 3,849 Total 100.00% 35,720 36,420 37,126 37,837 38,555 39,278 40,008 9 CSO (2017) Household Budget Survey 2015-2016 - Table HS029: Households in sample by deciles and year.

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