Development plan · Westmeath County Council
Westmeath County Development Plan 2021–2027
The council's development plan written statement: its strategy, policies, objectives and development standards.
Westmeath County Council · 2021–2027 · 634 pages
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- Appendix 1 Housing Strategy xxv households anticipated compared to the number of households that qualify for a mortgage and have the ability to purchase a home at the upper value of that house price band. Throughout the plan period, there is generally a housing surplus in the lower price bands and housing deficit in the higher price bands as identified in Table 21. However, a sufficient number of houses is anticipated overall as households in the upper price bands can purchase a house in a lower price band. Additionally, the bottom three deciles will not qualify for a mortgage, therefore there will be sufficient number of houses to those households that qualify for a mortgage and have the ability to purchase a home at the upper value of that house price band.
- Appendix 1 Housing Strategy xxvi Table 21: Calculation of Surplus/Deficit in Housing Available to Additional Households That Qualify for a Mortgage Year Range Additional Anticipated Households That Qualify for a Mortgage Running Total Affordability Threshold Household Price Band(s) Upper Value of Price Band Households That Qualify for a Mortgage Able to Purchase at Upper Value % of Housing Units Anticipated per Price Band Housing Units Anticipated per Price Band Housing Surplus (+) or Deficit (-) per Price Band 2021 1st Decile 0 0 83,342 1st Band 113,420 0 10.3% 50 50 2nd Decile 0 0 137,854 2nd Band 170,130 0 28.2% 135 135 3rd Decile 0 0 198,060 3rd Band 226,840 65 27.4% 132 67 4th Decile 73 73 252,381 4th Band 283,550 67 16.9% 81 14 5th Decile 71 144 308,841 5th Band 340,260 65 7.8% 38 -27 6th Decile 69 213 368,036 6th Band 396,970 59 3.3% 16 -43 7th Decile 67 280 434,322 7th Band 453,680 52 2.8% 14 -38 8th Decile 67 347 511,361 8th Band None - 3.2% 15 -9th Decile 67 413 616,515 10th Decile 67 480 927,807 480 308 100.00% 480 157 2022 1st Decile 0 0 85,759 1st Band 119,091 0 9.6% 46 46 2nd Decile 0 0 141,852 2nd Band 178,637 0 26.0% 126 126 3rd Decile 0 0 203,804 3rd Band 238,182 67 28.3% 137 70 4th Decile 73 73 259,700 4th Band 297,728 69 17.4% 84 16 5th Decile 72 145 317,797 5th Band 357,273 67 8.1% 39 -28 6th Decile 70 215 378,709 6th Band 416,819 61 3.7% 18 -42 7th Decile 67 282 446,917 7th Band 476,364 53 3.3% 16 -38 8th Decile 68 350 526,190 8th Band None - 3.6% 18 -
- Appendix 1 Housing Strategy xxvii 9th Decile 67 417 634,394 10th Decile 67 484 954,713 484 316 100.00% 484 150 2023 1st Decile 0 0 88,246 1st Band 125,046 0 8.8% 43 43 2nd Decile 0 0 145,966 2nd Band 187,568 0 23.8% 116 116 3rd Decile 0 0 209,714 3rd Band 250,091 69 29.1% 142 73 4th Decile 74 74 267,232 4th Band 312,614 71 18.0% 88 17 5th Decile 72 146 327,014 5th Band 375,137 69 8.3% 41 -28 6th Decile 70 216 389,691 6th Band 437,659 62 4.2% 20 -42 7th Decile 68 284 459,878 7th Band 500,182 55 3.7% 18 -37 8th Decile 68 352 541,450 8th Band None - 4.1% 20 -9th Decile 68 420 652,792 10th Decile 68 488 982,400 488 325 100.00% 488 143 2024 1st Decile 0 0 90,806 1st Band 131,298 0 8.0% 39 39 2nd Decile 0 0 150,199 2nd Band 196,947 0 21.7% 107 107 3rd Decile 0 0 215,796 3rd Band 262,596 71 30.0% 148 77 4th Decile 74 74 274,981 4th Band 328,245 73 18.5% 91 18 5th Decile 73 147 336,497 5th Band 393,893 71 8.6% 42 -28 6th Decile 71 218 400,992 6th Band 459,542 64 4.6% 23 -41 7th Decile 68 287 473,214 7th Band 525,191 57 4.2% 21 -36 8th Decile 69 355 557,152 8th Band None - 4.5% 22 -9th Decile 68 424 671,723 10th Decile 68 492 1,010,890
- Appendix 1 Housing Strategy xxviii 492 335 100.00% 492 135 2025 1st Decile 0 0 93,439 1st Band 137,863 0 7.2% 36 36 2nd Decile 0 0 154,555 2nd Band 206,794 0 19.5% 97 97 3rd Decile 0 0 222,054 3rd Band 275,725 73 30.9% 153 80 4th Decile 75 75 282,956 4th Band 344,657 75 19.0% 94 20 5th Decile 74 148 346,255 5th Band 413,588 98 8.8% 44 -54 6th Decile 71 220 412,621 7th Decile 69 289 486,937 6th & 7th Band 551,451 99 9.7% 48 -51 8th Decile 69 358 573,309 8th Band None - 5.0% 25 -9th Decile 69 427 691,203 10th Decile 69 496 1,040,205 496 344 100.00% 496 127 2026 1st Decile 0 0 96,149 1st Band 144,756 0 6.4% 32 32 2nd Decile 0 0 159,037 2nd Band 217,134 0 17.3% 87 87 3rd Decile 0 0 228,494 3rd Band 289,512 75 31.7% 159 84 4th Decile 76 76 291,161 4th Band 361,890 114 19.5% 98 -16 5th Decile 74 150 356,297 6th Decile 72 222 424,587 5th Band 434,268 64 9.1% 45 -18 7th Decile 70 291 501,058 6th Band 506,645 58 5.5% 28 -30 8th Decile 70 361 589,935 7th Band 579,023 40 5.1% 25 -15 9th Decile 70 431 711,248 8th Band None - 5.4% 27 -10th Decile 70 500 1,070,371 500 351 100.00% 500 123 2027 1st Decile 0 0 98,937 1st Band 151,994 0 5.6% 28 28
- Appendix 1 Housing Strategy xxix 2nd Decile 0 0 163,649 2nd Band 227,990 0 15.2% 76 76 3rd Decile 0 0 235,120 3rd Band 303,987 125 32.6% 164 39 4th Decile 76 76 299,605 5th Decile 75 151 366,629 4th Band 379,984 69 20.1% 101 32 6th Decile 73 223 436,900 5th Band 455,981 65 9.3% 47 -18 7th Decile 70 294 515,589 6th Band 531,978 59 6.0% 30 -29 8th Decile 70 364 607,043 7th Band 607,975 42 5.5% 28 -14 9th Decile 70 434 731,874 8th Band None - 5.8% 29 -10th Decile 70 504 1,101,412 504 361 100.00% 504 114
- Appendix 1 Housing Strategy xxx 3.11 Calculation of Projected Needs for Private Rental Purpose: This is the calculation of the households not meeting the affordability criteria to privately rent a home with respect to the number of households that cannot qualify for a mortgage. To ensure a robust approach to understand the rental market, data from the Rental Tenancies Board for County Westmeath17 has been analysed to understand the average rent prices for specific units (Refer to Table 22). Table 22: Historic rental prices by unit type One bed Two bed Three bed Four plus bed All bedrooms 2018 568.52 718.4 731.65 850.56 731.31 2017 506.64 653.1 695.39 791.52 678.07 2016 475.14 614.79 643.62 726.58 630.44 2015 448.97 658.87 600.21 679.06 620.08 Average 499.8175 661.29 667.7175 761.93 664.975 To ensure the most up to date market context, the demand per unit type has been established from the Rental Tenancies Board17 and a 6% annual growth rate in average rent price has been applied to understand the projected price of rent per unit type in County Westmeath (Refer to Table 23). Table 23: Projected rental prices by unit type Year Specific Area County One bed Two bed Three bed Four bed 2021 Westmeath Westmeath 677 856 871 1013 2022 Westmeath Westmeath 718 907 924 1074 2023 Westmeath Westmeath 761 961 979 1138 2024 Westmeath Westmeath 806 1019 1038 1207 2025 Westmeath Westmeath 855 1080 1100 1279 2026 Westmeath Westmeath 906 1145 1166 1356 2027 Westmeath Westmeath 961 1214 1236 1437 It is generally accepted that if housing costs exceed 35 per cent of a household’s disposable income, the housing is unaffordable and housing costs consume a disproportionately high amount of household income. Based on this information, we have calculated the number of households not meeting the “Affordability Criteria” for private rental during the plan period as outlined in Table 24. Table 24: Number of Additional Anticipated Households That Do Not Qualify for a Mortgage and Cannot Afford Private Rental 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 17 Rental Tenancies Board (2019) Table RIA02 - Average Monthly Rent Report by Year, Location, Property Type and Number of Bedrooms. Available from: https://statbank.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Database/eirestat/Residential%20Tenancies%20Board%20(RTB)/Residen tial%20Tenancies%20Board%20(RTB)_statbank.asp?SP=Residential%20Tenancies%20Board%20(RTB)&Plangua ge=0&ProductID=DB_RI
- Appendix 1 Housing Strategy xxxi 1 Bed 17 17 17 26 26 26 27 2 Bed 78 79 79 80 81 81 82 3 Bed 71 72 72 73 73 74 74 4+ Bed 40 40 41 41 41 42 42 Total 206 208 209 220 221 223 225 Those that cannot afford private rental are therefore considered to require social (and affordable) housing. It should be noted that during 2021 – 2023, nine households can therefore afford private rental for a one-bedroom unit, despite not qualifying for a mortgage, however all other unit types are determined to be too expensive every year when compared to the affordability criteria. Further, one bedroom units are not considered to be affordable during 2024 – 2027 and therefore every household that cannot qualify for a mortgage will require social (and affordable) housing. 3.12 Summary of Projected Social Housing Needs Purpose: This is the calculation of the households who can be classified as having an affordability problem during the period 2021-2027 so as to adequately inform the necessary provision units in County Westmeath. This section therefore summarises the anticipated social housing need for Westmeath County Council as set out in the preceding steps and reflects assessments for both mortgage qualification and private rental affordability. The number of additional households anticipated over the plan period, the number of those households that do not qualify for a mortgage and number of those households that do not qualify for a mortgage and cannot afford private rental have been set out in Table 25 and illustrated in Figure 3. Table 25: Identified Housing Shortfall Over Plan Period 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 No. of Additional Anticipated Households 695 700 706 712 717 724 729 No. of Additional Households That Do Not Qualify for a Mortgage 214 216 218 220 221 223 225 No. of Additional Anticipated Households That Do Not Qualify for a Mortgage and Cannot Afford Private Rental 206 208 209 220 221 223 225 Social Requirement as a % of Total Additional Anticipated Households 29.6% 29.6% 29.6% 30.9% 30.9% 30.9% 30.9% It has been determined that 1,538 of the 4,983 additional anticipated households will not qualify for a mortgage during the plan period and that 1,512 of these households do not meet the affordability criteria for private rental. With regards to private rental affordability, households which are identified as not being able to meet the ‘Affordability Criteria’ over the plan period are therefore considered to require social (and affordable) housing which equates to between 29.6% and 30.9% of the additional anticipated households.
- Appendix 1 Housing Strategy xxxii Figure 3: Identified Social Requirement Over Plan Period
- Appendix 1 Housing Strategy xxxiii 4 Analysis of Housing Requirements in Westmeath 4.1 Overview This section succinctly summarises the overall housing requirements for the county having regard to the supply and demand analysis outputs discussed in previous sections. Between 2021 and 2027, this Strategy forecasts a population increase of 10,483 in County Westmeath. This in turn indicates a total population of 105,710 in 2027. The population targets for this Plan period (2021-2027), as set out in the Core Strategy, establishes a total housing target for Westmeath of 4,983 units over the plan period 2021-2027, the equivalent of 712 units per annum. It has been determined that 1,538 of the 4,983 additional anticipated households will not qualify for a mortgage during the plan period and that 1,512 of these households do not meet the affordability criteria for private rental. With regards to private rental affordability, households which are identified as not being able to meet the ‘Affordability Criteria’ over the plan period are therefore considered to require social (and affordable) housing which equates to between 29.6% and 30.9% of the additional anticipated households. Section 93 of the Planning & Development Act 2000 (as amended), defines 'affordability' as "a person who is in need of accommodation and whose income would not be adequate to meet the payments of a mortgage for the purchase of a house to meet his or her accommodation needs because the payments calculated over the course of a year would exceed 35% of that person's annual income net of income tax and pay related social insurance..." This has been applied within this analysis and informs the determination of the social requirement for the plan period. It should be noted that while some of these households could afford to sustainably repay a loan of a certain size, their inability to qualify for a mortgage precludes them and effectively results in them being considered as having either a social or affordable need (after their assessment under private rental conditions). Most of the households who do not qualify for a loan also face difficulties affording private rental, keeping the effective social and affordable needs requirement in the 30% range across the period. Based on this analysis, the identified social requirement for the 6-year plan period is 1,512 units, approximately 30% of total additional households. The following sections set out specific analysis around three core components. This analysis serves to further understanding around specific dynamics of future housing demand in Westmeath over the plan period. These are as following: • Demand for single rural dwellings during the plan period • Household Size Cohort • Household Tenure Following this, Section 4.5 provides an overview of how social housing support is administered by Westmeath County Council, with existing delivery methods and targets set out in Section 4.5.2.
- Appendix 1 Housing Strategy xxxiv 4.2 Single Rural Dwellings As set out in Chapter 3, the NPF requires that Development Plans quantify the demand for single rural dwellings. The total population increase for the rural remainder18 during the plan period is anticipated to be 4,476 additional persons or 2,103 additional households as outlined in Table 26 and Table 27 respectively. Table 26: Projected population growth for the rural remainder Year Population - Total Percentage Increase Annual Population Increase During Year Total Population Increase 2021-2027 Total Population Increase 2016-2027 2016 36,221 - - - 2017 36,560 0.9% 339 - - 2018 37,128 1.6% 568 - - 2019 37,722 1.6% 593 - - 2020 38,319 1.6% 597 - - 2021 38,915 1.6% 597 - - 2022 39,526 1.6% 611 - - 2023 40,151 1.6% 625 - - 2024 40,788 1.6% 637 - - 2025 41,441 1.6% 654 - - 2026 42,108 1.6% 667 - - 2027 42,795 1.6% 687 4,476 6,574 Table 27: Projected Housing Requirements for the rural remainder Year Population - Total Number of Households (Private) Average Household Size No. of Anticipated Houses Per Annum Total Anticipated Houses - 2021-2027 Average Anticipated Houses Per Annum between 2021-2027 2016 36,221 - - - - - 2017 36,560 13,287 2.75 - - 2018 37,128 13,547 2.74 260 - - 2019 37,722 13,819 2.73 272 - - 2020 38,319 14,094 2.72 275 - - 2021 38,915 14,371 2.71 277 - - 2022 39,526 14,656 2.70 285 - - 2023 40,151 14,948 2.69 292 - - 2024 40,788 15,247 2.68 299 - - 2025 41,441 15,555 2.66 308 - - 2026 42,108 15,871 2.65 316 - - 2027 42,795 16,196 2.64 326 2,103 300 2028 43,507 16,534 2.63 338 - - 2029 44,236 16,881 2.62 347 - - 18 As informed by the selected population projection scenario; ‘Proportional Intervention Scenario C’.
Source Westmeath County Council: Westmeath County Development Plan 2021–2027 (2021–2027) · Licence the publisher's termsText read from the publisher’s PDF; tables, maps and drawings do not survive as text, and page numbers are the PDF’s (its first page is 1). Check the original before relying on a passage.