Westmeath County Development Plan 2021–2027

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   CORE STRATEGY 2 Westmeath County Development Plan 2021-2027 26 The strategy states that: ‘Some towns with a large population base located within the catchment of Dublin have emerged mainly as commuting towns, with a level of function significantly lower than their population base. Conversely, other towns have a level of function higher than their population base and play a key regional role’ (EMRA RSES, P46). The RSES settlement hierarchy was informed by an evidence driven Settlement Typology and Asset- Based approach, which identifies key assets and capacity issues in the region’s settlements and seeks to ensure that all places can meet their full potential and support the health and well-being of people who live, work, study in or visit the Region as well as the environment with which they interact. A number of key criteria were considered in the development of the asset base, which can be summarised as follows: • Scale: The scale of population, growth rates and local ambition for sustainable compact growth • Function: The scale of employment provision and commuting flows; in particular sub-regional interdependencies and influence • Human Capital: The extent of local services provision i.e. administration, educationparticularly third level, health, retail and amenities; Levels of relative affluence or deprivation • Enterprise: The availability of economic development assets and clusters • Placemaking: This is linked to ‘Functionality’ in terms of provision of suitable sites and property solutions to meet enterprise and labour force expectations • Connectivity: Transport accessibility and trip profiles, including internal trips • Environmental/Natural Capital: Environmental sensitivities, resources and assets • Infrastructure: Current and planned infrastructure capacity This approach has been utilised to guide the development of Westmeath’s Settlement Hierarchy, as elaborated in Section 2.6. Westmeath benefits from a strategic national road network reflecting its central location in the country. The N/M4 Dublin to Sligo (including connection via the N5 to Castlebar/Westport) corridor and the N/M6 Dublin to Galway corridor through County Westmeath are included as part of the EU TEN-T Comprehensive Network. In addition, the N51, N52, N55, N61 and N62 national secondary roads, are important road corridors in County Westmeath. Together the EU TEN-T Network and the national roads identified provide important strategic links within and through the county and region, including providing critical international connectivity. Core Strategy Policy Objectives It is a policy objective of Westmeath County Council to: CPO 2.1 Maintain the strategic function, capacity and safety of the national roads network and to ensure that the existing extensive transport networks, which have been greatly enhanced over the last two decades, are maintained to a high level to ensure quality levels of service, safety, accessibility and connectivity to transport users.

2. Page 32

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   CORE STRATEGY 2 Westmeath County Development Plan 2021-2027 27 2.4 Housing Need Demand Assessment (HNDA) Under Section 94 (1) (a) of the Planning & Development Act 2000 (as amended), each planning authority “shall include in any development plan a strategy for the purpose of ensuring that proper planning and sustainable development of the area of the development plan provides for the housing of the existing and future population of the area in the manner set out in the strategy”. In order to ensure that the plan-making system is supported by a robust methodology to inform policies and funding initiatives around housing and associated land requirements, the NPF states that a Housing Need Demand Assessment (HNDA) will be developed by each Local Authority to support the preparation of housing strategies and all related housing policy outputs, e.g. City and County development plans, local area plans, traveller accommodation plans, etc. The purpose of the HNDA tool is to: • Assist local authorities to develop long-term strategic views of housing need across all tenures. • Provide a robust evidence base to support decisions about new housing supply, wider investment and housing related services that inform an overall national housing profile. • Inform policies about the proportion of social and affordable housing required, including the need for different types and sizes of provision. • Provide evidence to inform policies related to the provision of specialist housing and housing related services. In 2010, the Department of Environment Heritage and Local Government published a Guidance Note on Core Strategies requiring the Housing Strategy to be informed by the Core Strategy as regards overall population and housing land requirements. The Guidelines (2010) further state that the purpose of the Core Strategy is to articulate a medium to longer term quantitatively based strategy for the spatial development of the area of the planning authority and in so doing to demonstrate that the development plan and its objectives are consistent with national and regional development objectives. The Core Strategy must therefore give effect to the NPF and RSES hierarchy (as extended at County level) by setting population targets and associated requirements for housing. This must now be undertaken through the HNDA process. This Core Strategy Chapter sets out the population targets and broad housing requirements for Westmeath for the period 2021-2027 (see Section 2.8). The HNDA process is elaborated and presented in greater detail in the Housing Strategy (see Appendix 1). 2.5 Strategic Aims The strategic aims which relate to the advancement of this plan are set out hereunder. These aims are addressed more fully in subsequent chapters within the plan. A series of specific Core Strategy policy objectives are included in Section 2.19. I. To guide the future development of Westmeath in line with national and regional objectives set out in the NPF and RSES and other national guidelines and policies. II. To promote and facilitate the development of the County in accordance with the provisions of the Core Strategy, including directing development in line with the settlement hierarchy and promoting development at an appropriate scale that is reflective of the terms of the Core Strategy Table and zoning maps.

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   CORE STRATEGY 2 Westmeath County Development Plan 2021-2027 28 III. To apply the Settlement Hierarchy to determine the scale, rate and location of proposed developments and apply appropriate development management measures to ensure compliance with the Settlement Hierarchy including the population targets for the County. IV. To promote the delivery of at least 30% of all new homes that are targeted in settlements within their existing built-up footprints. V. To support the achievement of more self-sustaining towns and villages through residential and employment opportunities together with supporting social and community facilities. VI. To monitor and maintain a record of residential development permitted in settlements designated under the Settlement Hierarchy in order to ensure compliance with the population allocations defined by the Core Strategy and to adjust the approach to permitting development proposals in instances where Core Strategy objectives are not being met. 2.6 Population Trends and Targets Census 2016 results show that Ireland’s population stood at 4,761,865 in April 2016, an increase of 173,613 (3.8%) since April 2011. There were 200 urban settlements across the country, which together accommodated 63% of Ireland’s population1. Beyond the five cities (Dublin, Cork, Limerick, Galway and Waterford) 29% of Ireland’s population live in towns and villages with at least 1,500 or more people. The Census data further indicates that smaller towns and villages (1,500-10,000 population) experienced less than half the national average rate of population growth between 2011 and 2016. Those with more than 5,000 people had a combined net loss of population during that time, when the national population grew by almost 4%. Within Westmeath, the County saw a population increase of 3% (+2,606 persons) during this period, as the population increased to 88,770 from 86,164. However, there are significant variances in population trends across the County. Athlone and Mullingar continued to experience steady growth between 2011 and 2016, with their populations increasing by 4.5% and 4.1% respectively. Both settlements now exceed populations of 20,000. Although it should be noted that in the case of Athlone, this figure includes the population of Monksland. The combined population of Athlone and Mullingar represents a total of 47.6% of the County’s population. In 2011 this figure stood at 41.6%. Of the other larger towns in the County, a further two can be characterised as ‘urban’ – Moate and Kinnegad. During this period, these towns grew by 1.17% and 3.1% respectively. Four more towns in the County recorded populations of more than 1,000 inhabitants (Rochfortbridge, Killucan-Rathwire, Kilbeggan, and Castlepollard). Of these, only Rochfortbridge experienced minor decline (-1.4%) between 2011-2016. The remaining three settlements experienced growth rates of between 3.4% and 11.7%. The figure of 11.7% relates to Killucan / Rathwire, which grew by 144 persons during this period, reaching a total of 1,370 inhabitants. Castlepollard also experienced significant growth during this period, increasing by 11.6% to 1,163 inhabitants. 1 The CSO defines a settlement of more than 1,500 people as ‘urban’.

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   CORE STRATEGY 2 Westmeath County Development Plan 2021-2027 29 2.6.1 Population Distribution According to the CSO’s parameters, a total of 47,785 people (53.8%) were living in urban settlements in Westmeath in 2016. 40,985 (46.1%) were living in smaller towns and villages, as well as in the rural remainder of the County. In 2011, census results showed a distribution between the urban and rural population as 48.54% and 51.46% respectively. Thus, Westmeath is becoming more urban in nature as a whole. The population growth in Westmeath for rural and urban areas from 2006 to 2011 was 6.2% and 11.2% respectively. Between 2011 and 2016, rural areas grew by 8.1%, while urban areas (i.e. Athlone, Mullingar, Kinnegad and Moate) grew by 14.2%. 2.6.2 Population Structure The Census 2016 results show that Ireland’s population has been getting steadily older since the 1980s. In 2016, 37.2% of the Irish population were aged 45 and over, compared with 34.4% in 2011 and 27.6% in 1986. 13.4% of the state’s population were over 65 in 2016. Within the EMRA region, this figure stood at 12% (as shown in Figure 2.4 below). The comparative figures for Westmeath are shown in Figure 2.3. In Westmeath, the proportion of the County aged over 65 is slightly lower than the national rate, with 13% of the population within this cohort. The average age of the County’s inhabitants is 36.3 years old in contrast to the national average age of 37.4. 22.3% of the Westmeath’s population is aged under 14. In total, the number of children of pre-school age (0-4) in Westmeath is 6464 (7.3%). 10,765 (12.1%) are of primary school going age (5-12) and a further 7493 (8.4%) are of secondary school going age (13-18). An extended age of the County is presented in Figure 2.5 below. Figure 2.3: Westmeath Age Profile (CSO, 2016) Figure 2.4: EMRA Age Profile (CSO, 2016)

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   CORE STRATEGY 2 Westmeath County Development Plan 2021-2027 30 -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 0 - 4 5- 9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ Age Group Female % Male % Figure 2.5: Westmeath Extended Age Profile (CSO, 2016)

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   CORE STRATEGY 2 Westmeath County Development Plan 2021-2027 31 2.7 Settlement Hierarchy In developing a settlement hierarchy for County Westmeath, an Asset Based Approach similar to that used in the preparation of the RSES was adopted. This amended version identifies and builds on a combination of social, economic and natural assets and potential that is available within towns and smaller settlements in the County. This has also been informed by the criteria listed in the Hierarchy of Settlements and related Infrastructure considered by NPF (see Figure 2.6 below). These criteria are grouped under eight overarching themes, with criteria graded according to the size of the settlement in question (i.e. smaller settlements and rural areas; smaller towns and villages; large towns; and cities). Figure 2.6: Hierarchy of Settlements and related Infrastructure considered by NPF (Source: NPF; page 83)

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   CORE STRATEGY 2 Westmeath County Development Plan 2021-2027 32 In assessing settlements in Westmeath, several core factors have been considered to date, as presented in Table 2.3. Table 2.3: Summary of criteria utilised to develop the settlement hierarchy for Westmeath 2021-2027. Criteria Description Rationale SCALE Population Population resident within CSO defined settlement boundary. Settlements with critical mass of population to drive regional development. Growth Rate % Growth rate between 2011- 2016 (Westmeath growth rate was 3.02%). Growth rate will determine capacity for future growth. Towns that have experienced high growth rates may require additional investment in services, infrastructure and employment. NPF / RSES designation Settlements designated for growth in the NPF include Dublin Metro and Regional Growth Centres. The NPF identified a number of centres of scale, which have the potential to meet the critical mass to drive regional growth – these include the Regional Growth Centre of Athlone and the Key Town of Mullingar. FUNCTION Commuter Trips Journey times from the settlement to work, school or college. The scale of commuting flows will inform the characterisation of a settlement as commuter focused or as more self-sustainable. Ratio between workers and jobs (where relevant data is available) By undertaking an analysis of the POWCAR 2016 database it is possible to develop a profile of both the number of resident workers and then importantly the actual number of local jobs. The average ratio of jobs to resident workers in the Eastern and Midland Regional Assembly area is 0.86. An analysis of the ratio between workers and jobs at the settlement level reveals the economic importance of a number of Westmeath towns for surrounding areas. Retail Hierarchy Retail hierarchy based on the Retail Strategy reflected in the Plan. Consideration must be given to the retail hierarchy included in Westmeath Retail Strategy. SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE / PLACE MAKING Community Facilities Sustainable neighbourhoods require a range of community facilities as stated in the Department of Environment, Heritage and Local Government Guidelines on Sustainable Residential Development in Urban Areas (2009). The extent of local services provision (such as shops, schools, pre-school facilities, community halls or centres; medical centres etc) will determine the attractiveness of a settlement to attract and retain a critical mass of population.

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   CORE STRATEGY 2 Westmeath County Development Plan 2021-2027 33 ENTERPRISE Economic Assets Higher Education Centres, Business Incubation and Innovation Centres, Technology Gateways and Research Centres, IDA Business parks or industrial estates, local enterprise office, and Strategic sites. Firms and enterprise development are drawn to urban locations by market forces such as agglomeration, migration and specialisation that depend on factors such as scale, accessibility, innovation supported by higher education institutions and quality of life. Moreover, as the NPF (p75) notes, Ireland’s natural resources are some of our greatest assets and through the development of the agriculture, food, forestry, tourism and renewable energy sectors, this will not only sustain rural employment, but also contribute to driving the national economy. CONNECTIVITY Public Transport Proximity to high quality public transport, both existing and planned. Access to transport infrastructure influences the location of housing and employment growth, with compact settlements more efficient in terms of maximising returns on transport investment Mode Share % Mode share of work and education trips (Origin) by Active Travel (walk, cycle), Public Transport, Car (driver, passenger). EMRA averages; active travel (21%), PT (14%), Car (56%). Mode share data indicates the extent of car dependency in a settlement NATURAL CAPITAL Flood Risk (RPS -RFRA) Flood Risk Summary of key Towns from SEA Environmental Report. Includes Flood Zones, constraints and measures identified in the FRMP along with assessment of climate change and adaption measures. Future development and flood risk assessment will need to consider and address flood risk at settlement level. Source: Amended RSES Asset Based Approach; EMRA RSES, Appendix A.

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   CORE STRATEGY 2 Westmeath County Development Plan 2021-2027 34 2.7.1 Settlement Hierarchy for Westmeath 2021-2027 Table 2.4: Settlement Hierarchy for Westmeath Settlement Typology Description Settlements Population 2016 Regional Growth Centre Regional Growth Centres are large towns with a high level of self-sustaining employment and services that act as regional economic drivers and play a significant role for a wide catchment area. Athlone* 21,349 Key Towns Large economically active service and/or county towns that provide employment for their surrounding areas and with high-quality transport links and the capacity to act as growth drivers to complement the Regional Growth Centres. Mullingar 20,928 Self-sustaining growth towns Self-Sustaining Growth Towns with a moderate level of jobs and services – includes sub-county market towns and commuter towns with good transport links and capacity for continued commensurate growth to become more selfsustaining Castlepollard 1,163 Moate 2,763 Kinnegad 2,745 Kilbeggan 1,288 Self-Sustaining Towns Self-Sustaining Towns with high levels of population growth and a weak employment base which are reliant on other areas for employment and/or services and which require targeted ‘catch up’ investment to become more selfsustaining. Rochfortbridge 1,473 Killucan /Rathwire 1,370 Towns and villages Towns and villages with local service and employment functions Clonmellon 664 Tyrrellspass 483 Delvin 740 Rural (Serviced) Villages that serve their local area Multyfarnham 420 Ballymore 483 Ballynacarrigy 277 Milltownpass** 299 Collinstown 356 Glasson 207 Ballinalack** 137 Castletown- Geoghegan 141 Rural Remainder 36,221 *The figure for Athlone represents the total population of the town encompassing both Westmeath and Roscommon. **Approximation of settlement due to CSO disclosure constraints.

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    CORE STRATEGY 2 Westmeath County Development Plan 2021-2027 35 2.8 Population Estimates and Projections to meet Regional population targets The NPF Implementation Roadmap states that “As the six-year City and County Development Plans approved in 2020/21 will commence review in 2025/26, this will require demographic data for the period beyond 2026 and the next iteration of RSESs will address the period to at least 2031”. As such, the critical population projection periods are to 2026/27 and 2031, with a particular emphasis on the initial six-year period to 2027 for this Development Plan. The Roadmap provides transitional population projections for these milestones at a Regional and County scale, in order to inform Development Plans for the period 2026 and 2031. These transitional population projections plot a growth trajectory set approximately mid-way between what is currently being planned for in statutory Development Plans if projected forward to 2031, and the more likely evidence based and nationally coherent projected scenario to 2031 and 2040. These ‘adjusted’ transitional figures will apply to 2026 and will also inform the period to 2031. By 2031 the NPF states that the population of Westmeath is to be in the range of 100,000-102,500. At the higher projected growth rate, this means that the population of the County will grow by approximately 13,730 people from its 2016 base (or approximately 11,230 people at the lower rate). By 2026, it is envisaged that the population of Westmeath will grow by 9,730 people at the higher projected rate to reach 98,500 (or 7,730 people at the lower rate). In addition, the RSES for the Eastern and Midlands region envisages a population target of 30,000 for the entire settlement of Athlone up to 2031. This includes lands within the combined functional area of the two Local Authorities of Westmeath and Roscommon. In 2016, the population of Athlone was 21,349. With this targeted growth rate, the town will increase by 8,851 people. Table 2.5: NPF / RSES Population Targets to 2026 and 2031. Source: Amended from NPF Appendix 2 Census 2016 2026 NPF / RSES Target 2031 NPF / RSES Target EMRA Region 2,329,000 2,566,500-2,619,000 2,668,000-2,740,500 Midlands 292, 500 318,500-324,500 329,500-337,000 Westmeath 88,770 96,500-98,500 100,000-102,500 Athlone 21,349 Not detailed 30,000 2.8.1 Population Scenarios at Settlement Level As outlined previously, the NPF and RSES set out population targets for the County as whole and Athlone as a Regional Growth Centre. In seeking to determine a settlement strategy for Westmeath which achieves these targets and aligns with the national and regional objectives, a number of population scenarios for the County have been investigated to 2031 (see Table 2.7). The chosen scenario, with its associated population targets is presented in Table 2.6. This sets out population targets for each tier of the settlement hierarchy and the County as a whole to 2026, 2027 and 2031. 2027 is included to align with this plan period (2021-2027). The selected scenario can be referred to as a proportional intervention (Pi) scenario (hence it is referred to as ‘Proportional Intervention Scenario C’ within Table 2.6). It utilises an interpolated

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