Westmeath County Development Plan 2021–2027

1. Page 41

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   CORE STRATEGY 2 Westmeath County Development Plan 2021-2027 36 forecast2 of population and is called an ‘intervention’ scenario because it assumes a particular level of policy-based interaction. Specifically, the scenario envisages growth rates to 2031 which are proportional to each tier of the settlement hierarchy. This aligns with the approach to settlement typologies detailed in the NPF. The NPF states that the translation of policy responses to the various settlement typologies presented in the NPF should also consider the scale and location of settlements and accordingly the requisite nature and scale of development appropriate at these locations. The settlement hierarchy for Westmeath has been developed on this basis and is informed by an assetbased approach to spatial development (as detailed in Section 2.6). As the RSES asserts, this approach recognises the step change required to ensure that growth is sustainable in the long term, and to ensure that settlements identified for significant population and/or employment growth are supported by the requisite investment in infrastructure and provision of employment, amenities and services. This scenario also ensures that Athlone’s RSES target is achieved by 2031, comprising a growth rate of 40.5% from its 2016 population base (as reported by the most recent census). Between 2021 and 2027, it envisages that Athlone will grow by 14% or 3,460 people in total. However, this figure takes in the Roscommon proportion of the population. When this element is excluded, the Westmeath proportion of Athlone’s proportion is targeted to grow by 2,768 people by 2027. Mullingar is targeted to grow by 12% between 2021 and 2027. The NPF county targets for 2026 and 2031 are exceeded under this scenario with 104,213 people in 2026 (vs. 98,500 NPF high) and 111,044 people in 2031 (vs. 102,500 NPF high). However, the NPF Implementation Roadmap states that scope for further headroom, not exceeding 25%, can be considered to 2026 in those counties where projected population growth is projected to be at or above the national average baseline. Westmeath is one of these counties. Within this scenario, Westmeath’s NPF County targets are exceeded by 5.8% in 2026 and 8.3% in 2031. Importantly, this scenario also ensures the achievement of the NPF’s objectives around supporting the sustainable development of rural areas by encouraging growth and arresting decline in areas that have experienced low population growth or decline in recent decades. These targets envisage a 5% growth rate in the rural remainder of the County between 2021 and 2027 and a 6% growth rate in serviced rural areas during the same period. 2 A forecast is based upon assumptions reflecting conditions expected to exist, i.e. the impact of policy, whereas a projection is prepared to present one or more hypothetical courses which might develop, should the trajectory of growth align with the key assumptions used.

2. Page 42

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   CORE STRATEGY 2 Westmeath County Development Plan 2021-2027 37 Table 2.6: Proportional Intervention (Pi) Scenario C. *Estimated from Athlone West Rural ED. **Approximation of settlement due to CSO disclosure constraints. ***This figure reflects the total population of Athlone (Westmeath and Roscommon). Settlement Census Interpolated forecast of population Settlement Tiers C2016 Pi2021 Pi2026 Pi2027 Growth Rate 2016- 2027 Growth Rate 2021- 2027 Pi2031 I Regional Growth Centre Athlone 21,349 24,233 27,116 27,693 30%* ** 14%*** 30,000 Athlone (Roscommon*) 4,737 4,847 5,423 5,539 6,657 Athlone (Westmeath) 16,612 19,386 21,693 22,154 23,343 II Key Town Mullingar 20,928 23,235 25,542 26,003 24% 12% 27,849 III Self- Sustaining Growth Towns Moate 2,763 3,018 3,274 3,325 20% 10% 3,529 Kinnegad 2,745 2,999 3,252 3,303 3,506 Kilbeggan 1,288 1,407 1,526 1,550 1,645 Castlepollard 1,163 1,270 1,378 1,399 1,485 IV Self- Sustaining Towns Rochfortbridge Killucan / Rathwire 2843 3053 1,691 1,573 3305 16% 8% 3474 V Towns and Villages Clonmellon Tyrrellspass Delvin 1887 2009 2131 2156 14% 7% 2253 VI Rural (Serviced) Ballymore Multyfarnham Collinstown Ballynacargy Glasson Castletown Geoghegan Milltownpass** Ballinalack** 2320 2449 2577 2603 12% 6% 2706 VI I Rural Remainder 36,221 37,898 39,526 39,911 10% 5% 41,253 County Total 88770 96725 104,213 105,710 19% 9% 111044 Total (Excl. Athlone and Mullingar) 51230 54104 56978 57553 12% 6% 59852

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   CORE STRATEGY 2 Westmeath County Development Plan 2021-2027 38 A number of additional scenarios, as depicted in Table 2.7, were excluded as part of this investigation as they did not represent the clear step change envisaged in the NPF / RSES objectives and did not align with their associated population targets. Under these intervention scenarios, the rural remainder of Westmeath declines in population. Specifically, National Policy Objective 15 is as follows: Support the sustainable development of rural areas by encouraging growth and arresting decline in areas that have experienced low population growth or decline in recent decades and by managing the growth of areas that are under strong urban influence to avoid overdevelopment, while sustaining vibrant rural communities (National Planning Framework 2040; p71) Thus, it is prudent to pursue a scenario which both aligns with the NPF and RSES population targets while also ensuring the long-term vitality of Westmeath’s rural areas. This is achieved in the scenario detailed in Table 2.6. Table 2.7: Alternative Population Scenarios Scenario 1: Non- Intervention Scenario This scenario utilises a projection of population developed using the Cohort Component Method (CCM). It is called ‘Non-Intervention’ as it does not assume a policy-based interaction on the modelled trajectory of population growth across Westmeath. CCM is used internationally as the best-in-class methodology for demographic projection, including by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) to produce the Irish National & Regional population and labour force projections. It closely examines the interactions between the three key components driving changes in the population: mortality, fertility and migration. This scenario assumes a continuation of the prevailing trends in mortality, fertility and migration (with respect to the CSO’s highest migration assumption). It specifically examines the impacts of inter-regional migration and the influence of a return to high net outward migration from Dublin (as set out by the CSO). This scenario reflects what might happen should growth continue to develop as assumed. It does not account for settlement capacity or non-demographic factors (beyond the inherent motivation of why people migrate). Athlone is not projected to reach its RSES target of 30,000 by 2031 (coming to 28,055 instead) under this scenario. Scenario 2: Proportional Intervention Scenario A Under this proportional intervention scenario, Athlone’s population will increase to achieve the 30,000 RSES target by 2031. It further intervenes by assuming proportional levels of growth elsewhere. All settlements increase in population in line with their demographic trajectory, with Mullingar and Athlone increasing in proportion to the latter’s target. The County targets (NPF high) for 2026 and 2031 are reached (approximately) with 98,518 people in 2026 (compared to 98,500 NPF high) and 102,501 people in 2031 (compared to 102,500 NPF high). However, the rural remainder of the County declines. This scenario, while meeting County targets and the target in relation to Athlone, damaged rural viability and as such is contrary to the objectives of the NPF.

4. Page 44

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   CORE STRATEGY 2 Westmeath County Development Plan 2021-2027 39 Scenario 3: Proportional Intervention B This proportional intervention scenario intervenes by assuming Athlone’s RSES target of 30,000 by 2031 is achieved, and that all settlements will grow in proportion to Athlone’s overall growth rate, i.e. its percentage increase between 2016 and 2031. Under this scenario, all settlements increase in population in line with a proportion of Athlone’s overall growth rate. The County targets (NPF high) for 2026 and 2031 are reached (approximately) with 98,555 people in 2026 (vs. 98,500 NPF high) and 102,558 people in 2031 (vs. 102,500 NPF high). Similarly, this scenario does not achieve the stated NPF objective of supporting the sustainable development of rural areas by encouraging growth and arresting decline in areas that have experienced low population growth or decline in recent decades. Estimates of residential land zoning required to accommodate population growth envisaged for Westmeath have been calculated on the basis of the population targets outlined in Table 2.6 (Proportional Intervention Scenario C) and are presented in the Core Strategy table (Table 2.9). However, in order to facilitate the development of infill sites and allow for fluctuations in the market, it is not envisaged that all land will be developed across the lifetime of the strategy. Ongoing monitoring will be undertaken to ensure consistency with the aggregate targets as set out under the NPF Implementation Roadmap. 2.9 Regional Growth Centre – Athlone The NPF sets the policy parameters for the Eastern and Midlands Region to better manage the growth of Dublin as a city of international scale supported by the growth of the three key Regional Centres of Athlone, Dundalk and Drogheda. These settlements also form the upper two tiers in the settlement hierarchy presented in the RSES. Regional Growth Centres, as they are referred to in the RSES, are ‘large towns with a high level of self-sustaining employment and services that act as regional economic drivers and play a significant role for a wide catchment area’. Athlone’s strategic location in the centre of Ireland is acknowledged in the strategy, with reference made to its position as a key node between Dublin and Galway on the River Shannon. During the last census period (2011-2016), Athlone grew by 4.5% to reach a total population of 21,349 (including growth recorded in Roscommon). The population of Athlone within Westmeath’s boundary stood at 16,612. This represents 18.7% of Westmeath’s total population. Appendix 2 of the NPF identifies population and jobs in all urban settlements in Ireland as defined by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), using data from the Census of Population 2016, and broken down by Regional Assembly area. The settlements with the highest overall ratios in the region include Athlone which has a ratio of 1.591. The town has 8,240 resident workers and a total of 13,108 jobs. The average ratio of jobs to resident workers in the Eastern and Midland Regional Assembly area is 0.86, with the RSES indicating that a ratio of 0.7+ reflects a strong economic function. Key priorities outlined in the RSES are to promote the continued sustainable and compact growth of Athlone as a regional driver, with a target population of 30,000 up to 2031, providing for an enhanced public realm and regeneration in the town centre along with significant employment growth linked to the further development of Athlone Institute of Technology (AIT) and building on the town’s existing strong economic base and enterprise clusters. AIT is currently part of a new Technological University consortium with Limerick Institute of Technology to develop a new Technological University for the

5. Page 45

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   CORE STRATEGY 2 Westmeath County Development Plan 2021-2027 40 Midlands and Midwest. The provision of increased employment densities to support envisaged population growth will require enhanced co-ordination between the local authorities, enterprise agencies and regional stakeholders to ensure the sequential delivery of serviced sites in central accessible locations. In order to enhance co-ordination of development in Athlone, where the town and its environs lie within the combined functional area of two local authorities and two regional assemblies. It is a policy objective of Westmeath County Council to jointly prepare a Joint Urban Area Plan (UAP) with Roscommon County Council in collaboration with EMRA and NWRA. The Athlone UAP will also identify suitable locations to facilitate higher and increased building heights in accordance with CPO 7.28. Regeneration opportunities are to be identified as part of the Joint UAP, through an integrated master planning approach, which can further support associated funding proposals under the Project Ireland 2040 Urban Regeneration and Development Fund and associated funding mechanisms. Moreover, it is considered that the Joint Retail Strategy by Westmeath and Roscommon County Councils will augment the development of Athlone as a regional shopping destination. The RSES further asserts that future development required to achieve the vision for Athlone includes the regeneration of underused, vacant or derelict lands in the town centre, to facilitate population growth and to strengthen the retail and commercial functions of the Regional Centre. In line with this focus on consolidation, it is a policy objective of the Council to indicate a boundary for the UAP area to support the achievement of compact growth targets with a minimum of 30% of new homes to be built within the existing built up area. An Area Based Transport Plan prepared jointly by Westmeath and Roscommon County Councils and which includes strategic road links within and surrounding Athlone shall also be prepared in collaboration with the relevant transport agencies. This shall promote Athlone as a sustainable transport hub, of national and regional importance and will inform the UAP review. Westmeath and Roscommon County Council’s have jointly, commissioned the preparation of an Economic Strategy for Athlone, which also includes a Marketing Plan. This Strategy will set out a robust plan to successfully attract local, national and international businesses to the regional centre and will underpin the future Urban Area Plan for Athlone. Core Strategy Policy Objectives It is a policy objective of Westmeath County Council to: CPO 2.2 Support the continued growth of Athlone, with a focus on quality of life and securing the investment to fulfil its role as a key Regional Growth Centre and economic driver in the centre of Ireland, with a target population of 30,000 up to 2031. CPO 2.3 Prepare a joint statutory Joint Urban Area Plan (UAP) for Athlone with Roscommon County Council in collaboration with EMRA and NWRA. CPO 2.4 Promote Athlone as a sustainable transport hub, of national and regional importance and support the preparation of a Joint Transport Plan between Westmeath and Roscommon County Councils in collaboration with transport agencies and key stakeholders to improve sustainable mobility in the town.

6. Page 46

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   CORE STRATEGY 2 Westmeath County Development Plan 2021-2027 41 2.10 Key Town – Mullingar Mullingar is designated as a Key Town in the RSES, which are defined as ‘Large economically active service and/or county towns that provide employment for their surrounding areas and with highquality transport links and the capacity to act as growth drivers to complement the Regional Growth Centres’. In 2016, Mullingar’s population had grown to 20,928 from its 2011 population of 20,153 (a growth rate of 4.1%). This represented 23.5% of the overall County population. The town occupies a strategic location along the N4, with excellent inter-urban links to the capital and international airport by motorway and rail. It has an existing base of both indigenous and international companies at the forefront of their field, in sectors such as engineering and consumer goods and services. In 2016, Mullingar had a ratio of jobs to resident workers of 1.079, one of the highest overall ratios in the region. In 2016, the town had 7,998 resident workers and 8,633 jobs. The RSES states that Key Towns should seek commensurate population and employment growth, on high quality public transport corridors coupled with investment in services, amenities and sustainable transport. It is a policy objective of the Council to prepare a Local Area Plan (LAP) for Mullingar to align with the RSES and this Core Strategy. The Mullingar LAP will also identify suitable locations to facilitate higher and increased building heights in accordance with CPO 7.28. An Area Based Transport Plan prepared by Westmeath County Council and which includes strategic road links within and surrounding Mullingar shall also be prepared in collaboration with the relevant transport agencies. This shall promote Mullingar as a sustainable transport hub, of national and regional importance. Core Strategy Policy Objectives It is a policy objective of Westmeath County Council to: CPO 2.5 Support the continued growth and sustainable development of Mullingar to act as a growth driver in the region and to fulfil its role as a Key Town in accordance with the principles and policies of the RSES. CPO 2.6 Prepare a Local Area Plan (LAP) for Mullingar to align with the RSES and this Core Strategy. 2.11 Self-Sustaining Growth Towns The RSES defines ‘Self Sustaining Growth Towns’ as ‘Towns with a moderate level of jobs and services – includes sub-county market towns and commuter towns with good transport links and capacity for continued commensurate growth to become more self-sustaining’. Castlepollard, Moate, Kinnegad and Kilbeggan form this tier of the settlement hierarchy. Moate is the third largest population centre in County Westmeath. It experienced a major population increase of 44.6% between 2006 -2011 which was significantly above trends at the County, Region and State levels over the period. Between 2011 and 2016, the growth rate slowed to 1.17%. In 2016 there were a total of 1,151 resident workers in the town, with 559 total jobs (a ratio of 0.486), a significantly

7. Page 47

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   CORE STRATEGY 2 Westmeath County Development Plan 2021-2027 42 lower rate to that of Athlone and Mullingar. A significant proportion of the population commutes to Athlone on a daily basis. Between 2006 and 2011 Kinnegad experienced high levels of population growth but this growth was not accompanied by the requisite supporting services. Between 2011 and 2016, growth slowed to 3.1%. However, it remains a key priority of this Development Plan to enhance provision of necessary social and community development facilities. Kinnegad also had a significantly lower ratio of jobs to resident workers (0.391) than Athlone and Mullingar, with 1019 resident workers in the town and a total of 398 jobs in 2016. Castlepollard is the largest town in the northern part of the County and is an important economic driver for the areas that are comparatively remote from the main population centres of the region. It has grown by 11.6% in the period 2011-2016. According to the County Retail Strategy, Castlepollard’s retail floorspace increased by 83% between 2007-2016 from 473m² to 865m² as a result of the development and opening of the Tesco Express anchored Manor Village scheme. As Castlepollard and Kilbeggan both had populations less than 1,500 in 2016 (the CSO parameter for an ‘urban’ area classification), no data is included in the NPF around their ratio of jobs to resident workers. However, analysis of publicly available POWSCAR (Place of Work, School or College - Census of Anonymised Records)3 data has been undertaken to investigate the economic function of these settlements. This data is provided at ED level and as such, Kinturk ED is utilised in the analysis of Castlepollard and Kilbeggan ED is utilised in the case of Kilbeggan. For Castlepollard, this data shows that a total of 378 people (or 47.5%) live and work / attend school in the ED. 417 people (52.5%) live in in the ED but travel out for work/school. The 2016 CSO census results show that a total of 467 residents of the ED are ‘at work’. Yet, this does not mean that the jobs are located within the ED. Rather it just confirms that these residents are ‘employed’. Kilbeggan in terms of employment, commercial and social facilities is relatively self-sufficient and contained. There are a significant number of employers in the town located in the existing enterprise and employment sites. The Kilbeggan Distillery and racecourse are important to the local economy as are its handful of large national and international employers. However, the Retail Check completed as part of the Retail Strategy found that vacant retail/commercial units totalled a significant 36% in the town centre. POWSCAR data shows that 480 people (54.2%) live and work/attend school within the relevant ED. A further 405 (45.8%) live in the ED but travel out for work/school. The 2016 Census results indicate that there are 666 residents ‘at work’ in Kilbeggan (this does not however mean these jobs are located in the ED). 46.5% of those people in the town aged 5 years and over travel less than 15 minutes to work, school or college. Policies and objectives specific to each individual settlement are contained within individual Settlement Plans, as outlined within Chapter 8 of the Plan. 3 As part of the Census 2016 processing programme places of work, school and college were geo-coded. All workers resident in Ireland on Census night were coded to their place of work and all Irish resident students from the age of 5 and upwards were coded to their place of school/college. A detailed microdata file containing demographic and socio-economic characteristics of these residents along with information on the origin and destination of their journeys has been made available for analysis.

8. Page 48

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   CORE STRATEGY 2 Westmeath County Development Plan 2021-2027 43 Core Strategy Policy Objectives It is a policy objective of Westmeath County Council to: CPO 2.7 Promote consolidation in Self-Sustaining Growth Towns coupled with targeted investment where required to improve local employment, services and sustainable transport options and to become more self-sustaining settlements, in line with settlement specific policy contained within Chapter 8 of the plan. 2.12 Self Sustaining Towns Self-Sustaining Towns, according to the RSES, are towns with high levels of population growth and a weak employment base which are reliant on other areas for employment and/or services and which require targeted ‘catch up’ investment to become more self-sustaining. Rochfortbridge and Killucan /Rathwire form this tier of the settlement hierarchy. Rochfortbridge experienced marginal population decline (-1.4%) between 2011-2016, with a total population of 1473. In contrast, Killucan /Rathwire experienced one of the highest growth rates in the County during the 2011-2016 period (11.7%), with the population reaching 1370. The RSES states that population growth in Self-Sustaining towns shall be at a rate that seeks to achieve a balancing effect and shall be focused on consolidation and inclusion of policies in relation to improvements in services and employment provision. Core Strategy Policy Objectives It is a policy objective of Westmeath County Council to: CPO 2.8 Promote commensurate population and employment growth in the designated Self- Sustaining towns, providing for natural increases and to become more economically selfsustaining, in line with the quality and capacity of public transport, services and infrastructure available.

9. Page 49

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   CORE STRATEGY 2 Westmeath County Development Plan 2021-2027 44 2.13 Towns and Villages Clonmellon, Tyrrellspass and Delvin are included within this tier of the settlement hierarchy. Clonmellon and Delvin grew at rates of 4.7% and 6.1% respectively during the most recent census period (2011-2016) reaching populations of 664 and 740. Tyrrellspass experienced a decline in population of -4.5%, with a total number of inhabitants of 483. Facilitating housing is paramount to ensuring the sustainability, vitality and viability of the rural places of the region, according to the RSES. Support for housing and population growth within rural towns and villages in Westmeath will help to act as a viable alternative to rural one-off housing, contributing to the principle of compact growth. The availability of serviced sites, in tandem with schemes such as the Irish Water Scheme for Small Towns and Villages, will help to enable this. Core Strategy Policy Objectives It is a policy objective of Westmeath County Council to: CPO 2.9 Promote consolidation coupled with targeted rural housing and investment policies in Towns and Villages where required to improve local employment, services and sustainable transport options and to become more self-sustaining. CPO 2.10 Investigate the feasibility of providing serviced sites at appropriate locations in towns and villages across the county, in consultation with public infrastructure agencies such as Irish Water and local communities. 2.14 Rural Areas Westmeath has traditionally been a predominantly rural County. The 2016 Census results show a distribution between the urban and rural population as 55.8% and 46.1% respectively. In 2011, this distribution was as 48.54% and 51.46% respectively. Thus, the overall proportion of the County living in urban settlements is increasing. Between 2011 and 2016, rural areas grew by 8.1%, while urban areas (i.e. Athlone, Mullingar, Kinnegad and Moate) grew by 14.2%. In support of the overall pattern of rural and small town development in Ireland, the NPF seeks to protect areas that are under strong urban influence from unsustainable over-development on the one hand, and to encourage population to be sustained in more structurally weak areas, that have experienced low growth or decline in recent decades, on the other, while sustaining vibrant rural communities. However, the NPF, through National Policy Objective 19 requires a clear distinction to be made between areas under urban influence and elsewhere in providing for the development of rural housing. i) National Policy Objective 19: Ensure, in providing for the development of rural housing, that a distinction is made between areas under urban influence, i.e. within the commuter catchment of cities and large towns and centres of employment, and elsewhere:

10. Page 50

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    CORE STRATEGY 2 Westmeath County Development Plan 2021-2027 45 • In rural areas under urban influence, facilitate the provision of single housing in the countryside based on the core consideration of demonstrable economic or social need to live in a rural area and siting and design criteria for rural housing in statutory guidelines and plans, having regard to the viability of smaller towns and rural settlements; • In rural areas elsewhere, facilitate the provision of single housing in the countryside based on siting and design criteria for rural housing in statutory guidelines and plans, having regard to the viability of smaller towns and rural settlements. The Sustainable Rural Housing Guidelines (2005) states that ‘Structurally Weak Rural Areas’ will exhibit characteristics such as persistent and significant population decline as well as a weaker economic structure based on indices of income, employment and economic growth. In contrast, ‘Strong Rural Area under Significant Urban Influence’ will exhibit characteristics such as proximity to the immediate environs or close commuting catchment of large cities and towns, rapidly rising population, evidence of considerable pressure for development of housing due to proximity to such urban areas, or to major transport corridors with ready access to the urban area, and pressures on infrastructure such as the local road network. The RSES shows the EMRA Functional Urban Areas (FUA) 2016. Within County Westmeath, much of the County is split between two Large Town FUAs – stemming from Athlone and Mullingar. The eastern County boundary also lies along the ‘Core Region’ FUA boundary, which is the peri urban hinterlands within the commuter catchment around Dublin (as shown in Figure 2.7)

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